NFL Week 1 Betting Preview: Why oddsmakers got the Buccaneers line wrong

Week 1 is finally here. 

The opening week of the National Football League schedule is always tough on gamblers. You have a ton of time to think and rethink your potential picks, but there isn't always a lot to go on. You can't rely too heavily on the preseason because, well, it's only the preseason (this may be the biggest mistake that bettors make in Week 1). And you can't go solely on last year's performances because so much has changed in the offseason.

Nonetheless, the thrill of the opening weekend - combined with the potential value from the first games of the season - is too much to avoid playing the lines. So, here we are. 

If you’re unfamiliar with my weekly picks article, here are some things you’ll need to know:

• Each wager will be the same unit amount. As is usually the case, I’ll maintain an emphasis on against-the-spread wagers but there will likely be a few total selections sprinkled in throughout the year.
   
• Last season, I attached The Nickel Package podcast to each preview, but for a variety of different reasons, there won’t be a podcast this season.
   
• I throw out a lot of “sports betting lingo” in each article. If you are foreign to sports betting and haven’t grasped some of the basic concepts, Oddsshark.com has put together a pretty good wiki of sports betting basics that are well worth the read. Oddsshark has also entered me in the #SuperContest this season to compete against their Super Computer. If you’re interested in tracking my progress, my picks will be uploaded here on a weekly basis once I’ve submitted them. If you’re interested in the Super Computer’s projections, I’ve linked the title of each game preview to the predicted outcome. 

I try to wait until last minute on Friday morning to write this article so that I can account for as much as I possibly can. Please remember that this article illustrates my opinion as of Friday, but my opinion can change due to a number of factors that take place afterwards. Spreads move, injuries happen, celebrity nude photos get released, and various other factors influence the outcome of a game after I have already uploaded my article. I am always available on Twitter @robpizzola to address any questions that you may have.

Let me give you a little bit of insight into my wagering philosophy. I’m primarily a “bet against the public” type of guy. I am not one to overreact to last week’s results as most public bettors do, and I’m always very hesitant to fall in love with a side that seemingly everyone else likes. Subsequently, there will be a lot of people that disagree with my picks. That’s fine - everyone is entitled to their opinion. I can’t even count how many people have called me some form of an idiot over the years because of my penchant for betting on “ugly teams”. This philosophy has always been my bread and butter, and led me to a 63-49-3 record last season; the third straight season where I hit at a rate greater than 55%.

Finally, I must preach the importance of line shopping. I use a variety of different sportsbooks to place my wagers and I always look for the best line available. A half point may not seem like much, but it can be the difference between a winner and a push, or a push and a loser. I will never post a line that isn’t available at the time of my writing and I will always reference the sportsbook where I obtained that line.

Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 1.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons

Friday Consensus Line: Saints -3, total 51.5

The Pick: The Saints seem to be the hot pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this season. Don’t get me wrong - I’m high on the Saints too, but I can’t understand why people are lining up in waves to bet them in this contest. New Orleans made a lot of improvements in the offseason, but they also lost Darren Sproles, who was their “do-it-all” back. There are other weapons on this team, but the Saints will find it particularly tough to fill that void. I think they’ll be in tough against a Falcons squad that’s strengthened both their offensive and defensive lines (albeit slightly), and now has a healthy Julio Jones back in the mix. The Saints struggled to put away an injury-riddled Falcons team twice last season and have been known to struggle in contests away from home. Seven of the last 11 meetings between these NFC South foes have been decided by four points or less. Make that 8 of 12 come Sunday. Falcons 23, Saints 20

The Wager: Both the side and the total stand out here. These two teams are very familiar with each other and consequently, I believe we’ll see a lower scoring game than most people expect. But I also vehemently disagree with the spread here, and that’s the way I’m going to play it. I think oddsmakers got it right with their opener, installing the Falcons as a short home favorite. Atlanta isn’t as good as they were in 2012 but also not as bad as they were in 2013. Until the Saints prove that they’re capable of putting in quality games on the road, I’ll continue to fade them in that spot. Falcons +3 (widely available)

Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams

Friday Consensus Line: Rams -3.5, total 43

The Pick: Here’s the first major overreaction of Week 1. What in the world will the Rams do without their top signal-caller, Sam Bradford? Well, it’s not exactly that difficult to replace a quarterback with a 79.3 career quarterback rating, even if ESPN may lead you to believe otherwise. Bradford is about as mediocre as it gets, so there really isn’t much of a downgrade to Shaun Hill, if there’s even a downgrade at all. The Rams dealt with a second-string quarterback for 9 games last season and they’ve known about the Bradford injury for weeks, so they’ll be well equipped to deal with the Vikings “defense.” Minnesota gave up 29 or more points in 9 of their last 15 games a year ago, so they’ll need their offense to pick up the slack. Unfortunately for the Vikings, the Rams have one of the more stout defensive fronts in the league, and they’ll be wreaking havoc on veteran garbage man Matt Cassel all afternoon. This coaching debut doesn’t end well for Mike Zimmer. Rams 24, Vikings 13

The Wager: I live for capitalizing on overreactions, and I think that’s precisely what we have here. This line was hovering around Rams -6 until the Bradford injury and now it can be grabbed at -3 (with increased juice) at some spots. In my eyes, that’s an absolute joke. St. Louis has the better offense, the better defense, and home field advantage. Aside from Adrian Peterson’s guarantee that he’ll score a touchdown on his first carry of the season, I don’t know what the Vikings have going for them here. Yeah, I’ll lay the points. Rams -3 -120 (BetOnline)

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Friday Consensus Line: Steelers -6.5, total 41.5

The Pick: This is a tough game for me to call. Everyone seems to be down on the Browns right now (who can blame them? This franchise is a travesty), but it’s hard to look at this Cleveland team and see any semblance of a quality squad. Pittsburgh’s 8-8 record from a year ago is a bit misleading. They were without Big Ben for the first four games of the season; all four of which resulted in losses. The Steelers have improved their offensive line in the offseason (both with player and coaching personnel) and should be able to give Ben Roethlisberger more time in the pocket. With that being said, I still don’t trust this team to win by a large margin. Cleveland actually possesses a pretty strong defense that was able to keep them in a lot of games last season, and the addition of a quality running back in Ben Tate should take some of the pressure off of Brian Hoyer, who also isn’t nearly as bad as people think. The Browns will hang around, but they don’t have what it takes to pull off the upset in Steel City. Steelers 20, Browns 14

The Wager: I would have taken out a second mortgage and unloaded a massive play on the Steelers if Johnny Manziel got the nod in Week 1, but unfortunately he didn’t. With Hoyer under center, I think this point spread is in the appropriate range. Pittsburgh probably makes for a decent play in a money line parlay or in a teaser, but other than that, I don’t see anything worth playing in this one. Pass

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles

Friday Consensus Line: Eagles -10.5, total 52.5

The Pick: One year later and it’s still equally difficult to write a paragraph about a Jaguars game. Jacksonville’s offense will look very different this season, with some heavy changes along the offensive line, a new starting running back, and a pair of new receivers. Unfortunately, Gus Bradley has opted for the same terrible option at quarterback, Chad Henne, instead of letting first round pick, Blake Bortles, take the reins. The Jags showed a vast improvement in the second half last season, but they’re still not ready to play with the Eagles. Philadelphia has a plethora of playmakers on offense and should be able to move the ball at will against a Jaguars stop unit that just isn’t very good. Jacksonville made some decent upgrades in the offseason, but the Eagles are capable of moving the ball against just about anyone, so I doubt we’ll see much of a difference in the early going. This one ends the way you think it does. Eagles 34, Jaguars 24

The Wager: I’m always tempted to take a double-digit underdog, simply out of principle, but I have no desire to gamble on the Jags this weekend. Generally, as a rule of thumb, I have to believe that the underdog can win the game if I’m going to take them against the spread, and I really don’t believe that Jacksonville can win this game (although this is the NFL and anything can happen). Philadelphia is in a look-ahead spot with a Monday Night Football matchup against the Colts on deck, but even that’s not enough for me. Chip Kelly is one of those coaches that just doesn’t give a shit and will try to run up the score on just about anyone. Pass

Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets

Friday Consensus Line: Jets -5.5, total 39.5

The Pick: I knew at some point I would have to write about this game and was hoping that it was further down the board, but here it is. This will certainly be the worst five to ten minutes of my week. Oakland is bad... very bad. The Jets are... well, they’re the Jets... consistently mediocre. At least the Raiders have spared us from having to watch Matt Schaub toss nine pick-sixes this week and opted instead to start Derek Carr at quarterback. Carr looked solid in the preseason (I know... the preseason means nothing), and he’ll have a good chance to duplicate that success against a Jets secondary that is in shambles right now. Unfortunately for the Raiders, they have to play defense as well. Oakland gave up nearly 37 points per game over their final five contests of 2013, and their stop unit is so bad that I can actually picture Geno Smith having some success through the air. The Raiders are coming across the country for a 10 am PT start, which isn’t going to help them either. Alright, I can’t write about this anymore. Jets 27, Raiders 24

The Wager: The Raiders may be terrible, but if you’re comfortable laying 5.5 points with the Jets, may God have mercy on your soul. I do think there’s a good wagering opportunity here though. I think both teams’ offensive strengths should be able to exploit the defensive weaknesses of the opposing side. These two squads played at MetLife Stadium in Week 14 last season and put up a combined 64 points, sailing over the total early in the third quarter. I see a similar type of game on the horizon this week. Over 40 (widely available)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens

Friday Consensus Line: Ravens -1, total 42.5

The Pick: I’m not really sure why so many people are down on the Ravens this season. Sure, Ray Rice is suspended for the first two games, but Bernard Pierce (who passed his concussion test earlier this week) is arguably the better running back at this point in their respective careers anyways. The fact of the matter is that the Ravens are one of the best teams in the league in taking care of business on their home soil. Joe Flacco had a terrible season last year, but I’d expect a major improvement now that Dennis Pitta is healthy to start the season. Cincinnati lost both of their offensive and defensive coordinators to head coaching jobs in the offseason, which are two major departures that many people seem to be overlooking. Add in the fact that Andy Dalton has been absolutely dreadful when travelling to play divisional opponents - 1-7 straight up in his career vs. AFC North opponents on the road - and I like the Ravens to take care of business here. Maybe psycho Ravens fan will finally leave me alone. Ravens 21, Bengals 16

The Wager: I have these teams power rated pretty evenly (Bengals slightly better), but I always dock the Bengals a point on the road and add a point to the Ravens at home. Maybe that’s a mistake but it’s been a pretty consistent trend for a handful of years now, and as football bettors like to say, “The trend is your friend”. I have the Ravens laying a field goal here and with their propensity to get the job done at M&T Bank Stadium, I’m pretty comfortable backing them this week. Ravens pk -111 (Pinnacle)

Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears

Friday Consensus Line: Bears -7, total 47.5

The Pick: Yet another matchup this week where one side is getting all the love. Buffalo looked awful in the preseason, and awful may actually be an understatement. E.J. Manuel threw one touchdown pass, was sacked seven times, and looked completely out of place. This shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone as Manuel has never really looked good at the pro level, especially on the road. The Bears upgraded their 30th-ranked defense from a year ago, but I still believe Buffalo can have some success moving the ball. With C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson in the lineup, the Bills are capable of exploiting a Bears’ run defense that gave up 5.3 yards per carry last season. That should at least take some of the pressure off of Manuel. But can the Bills’ defense slow down the potent Bears offense? Probably not. Buffalo has a pretty good defensive line and anything is possible if you apply some pressure on Jay Cutler, but the most likely scenario is that you’ll be a pretty happy dude/gal if your fantasy lineup includes any Chicago starters. Not a complete cake walk for the Bears, but a win is in the cards. Bears 27, Bills 21

The Wager: I originally liked Chicago when this spread was first posted, but a few things have made me change my opinion. The first is that the entire world is on the Bears this week, which isn’t usually a good sign. The second, and the one that flies under the radar, is that the Bills hired defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz in the offseason. Schwartz was a pathetic excuse for a head coach in Detroit, but he also has a lot of familiarity with this Bears’ offense, having faced them twice a year in the NFC North. Finally, I just don’t trust Chicago laying points because of their porous defense. Pass

Washington Redskins @ Houston Texans

Friday Consensus Line: Texans -3, total 44.5

The Pick: This is one of the few games this week where I really don’t have much of an opinion. Both squads enter the season under very similar circumstances - having had a terrible 2013 campaign and breaking in a rookie head coach. Jay Gruden now mans the sidelines for the Redskins and it doesn’t seem as though Robert Griffin III has been all that comfortable with the new scheme in Washington. RG3 has a serious set of weapons to work with, but when this offense will start clicking is anyone’s guess. The former Baylor product won’t have an easy time under center as J.J. Watt is now joined by rookie Jadeveon Clowney on the Texans’ defensive line. As for Houston, they now turn to veteran journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, which is obviously not ideal. Fitzpatrick has a big brain, but not much of an arm, and he’ll have to deal with some strong pass rushers across from him, as the Redskins bolstered their OLB tandem of Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan with the addition of Jason Hatcher in the offseason. At the end of the day, these teams are pretty even in my eyes, so I’ll just be a hero and side with the underdog. Redskins 26, Texans 24

The Wager: With the line moving through the key number of three at some books, the Redskins are starting to look appealing, but I just don’t have much of a feel on this game. The Texans could win this one by three touchdowns and it really wouldn’t be all that surprising to me. Consistency was a major issue for both of these squads last season, so I’ll look elsewhere this week. Pass

Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs

Friday Consensus Line: Chiefs -3, total 43.5

The Pick: I don’t have a single doubt in my mind that the Chiefs will regress heavily this season, but I’m not entirely sure it starts in Week 1. Kansas City rode a laughable schedule to a perfect 9-0 start last season, but finished the year on a 2-5 run before pissing themselves against the Colts in the playoffs. They did prove that they can take care of weaker competition though, and I think Tennessee falls into that category. Titans quarterback Jake Locker should take some strides forward under new head coach Ken Whisenhunt, but he’s not the caliber of quarterback that can make up for deficiencies at many other positions. Kansas City’s defense was rolling along last season until injuries to Tamba Hali and Justin Houston set them back, but they should be able to get back on track with their pass rushers back in the lineup. I’m not completely sold on Alex Smith, especially with left tackle Branden Albert gone to Miami and right tackle Donald Stephenson lost to suspension, but I’m not sure the Titans have the ponies to shut down Kansas City’s offense. A close game, but the Chiefs eke out another win against inferior competition. Chiefs 27, Titans 24

The Wager: The only game that caught my eye when the NFL lines were first released was Titans +6, but that number is long gone. The consensus now is Chiefs -3 and that’s exactly what I would have set the line at in the first place, believing that both of these teams are relatively equal. I also think a lot of points will be scored here, but ultimately, I don’t like the over as much as I like my other plays this week. Pass

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

Friday Consensus Line: Patriots -4, total 46.5

The Pick: New England was one game away from the Super Bowl last season, and (seemingly) improved over the offseason, but that improvement doesn’t necessarily equate to success in Week 1. The Dolphins upset the Patriots 24-20 in Week 15 last season, and I think that Miami matches up well with this New England squad, at least on defense. The Dolphins have a fast front seven that applies a lot of pressure to opposing quarterbacks without having to blitz. Tom Brady is one of the best quarterbacks in the league against the blitz, but he struggles when opposing teams can apply pressure without sending extra men. There’s also this public assumption that Brady is going to return to his form from 2012, but even that’s no guarantee. With that being said, Miami’s offense is not exactly best equipped to expose the Patriots defense. This may be the year that Ryan Tannehill takes a step forward, but that’s the best case scenario for the Dolphins. Worst case scenario is that Tannehill is still mediocre and can’t beat a New England defense that has been reinforced by cornerback Darrelle Revis. This one is probably close from start to finish, but I’ll side with the proven commodity. Patriots 20, Dolphins 17

The Wager: The Patriots were 0-4 as favorites on the road last season, and that definitely creates some temptation to back the Dolphins here. I’m just not that high on the Dolphins though, and I don’t like the thought of playing against Bill Belichick after he’s had a full offseason to prepare. The under is also tempting here, but similar to my thoughts on the total in Chiefs/Titans, it falls just short of a play. Pass

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Friday Consensus Line: Bucs -2.5, total 39

The Pick: The Greg Schiano era in Tampa is over and that immediately makes the Buccaneers a better team. When Schiano wasn’t busy drawing up plays to defend the ol’ quarterback kneel, he was busy embarrassing himself on the sidelines. It was evident that the Bucs’ players didn’t play for him down the stretch in either of the last two seasons. Lovie Smith inherits a team that should immediately improve thanks to an upgrade at quarterback and the return of Doug Martin at running back. While the Bucs are set to get better, I believe Carolina is due for a major downfall. Cam Newton is dealing with an injury to his ribs and is still no lock to play on Sunday after missing Thursday’s practice. Even if Newton does suit up, this team has multiple issues on the offensive line, and lacks any sort of quality playmaker. Carolina is still capable of stealing a game on the backs of their defense (see 2013 season), but the Panthers’ front seven isn’t going to be able to dominate the Bucs’ offensive line like they did last season, especially with the addition of Logan Mankins. Lovie Smith’s head coaching debut should be a successful one. Bucs 20, Panthers 13

The Wager: A lot of the line value with the Bucs is long gone, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Newton, but I still think that anything short of Tampa -3 is a fair price. Oddsmakers don’t make major mistakes on opening lines too often, but I think they were drunk or under the influence of drugs when they set this one. Bucs -2.5 -115 (widely available)

San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys

Friday Consensus Line: 49ers -4, total 51

The Pick: The Cowboys enter this season with very low expectations and that’s usually when they’re most dangerous. Sure, their defense is an abomination, but it was an absolute train wreck last year as well so it’s hard to imagine them getting even worse, even with the losses of DeMarcus Ware and Jason Hatcher. Tony Romo may not be able to overcome all of those defensive woes, but if last year was any indication, he’ll keep the Cowboys in the game. Dallas didn’t lose a single home contest by more than three points last season, including an epic shootout against the Broncos, despite having the league’s worst defense. San Francisco will score their points, I don’t think there’s any doubt about that, but they’re also undergoing some major changes on defense. Linebackers NaVorro Bowman and Aldon Smith, as well as defensive lineman Glenn Dorsey are all out, and the 49ers have a lot of fresh new faces in their secondary. This isn’t the 49er defense that you’ve come to expect in recent years. San Francisco has enough offensive firepower to get the road win, but the Cowboys won’t let it come easy. 49ers 31, Cowboys 28

The Wager: Another home underdog that looks extremely tempting, but it’s just too hard to pull the trigger here. Would anyone really be surprised if the Cowboys gave up 50 points in this game? I know I wouldn’t. Romo is a hell of a lot better than people give him credit for and is more than capable of carrying the Cowboys on his back, but my judgement tells me that there are much better plays this week. The over also looks very tempting, but I could see a scenario unfolding where San Fran gets out to an early lead and starts milking the clock. Pass

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos

Friday Consensus Line: Broncos -7.5, total 55.5

The Pick: The old adage that “payback is a bitch” is the theme of this contest. Indianapolis ruined Denver’s 6-0 start to last season with a 39-33 comeback victory after trailing by as many as 19 points in the third quarter. Lightning struck on that night, but it rarely strikes in the same place again (I didn’t fact check that - it’s entirely possible that lightning strikes in the same place again occasionally). The Broncos will struggle to match their insane scoring output from last season, but probably not in this contest. With Robert Mathis and his 19.5 sacks from a year ago suspended for the first four games of the season, Peyton Manning should be able to work with a clean pocket all night long. Can the Colts match points? Well, it’s entirely possible, but not likely. Andrew Luck has been a miracle worker in the past couple of seasons, but the Broncos’ defense will be a much improved unit with the additions of cornerback Aqib Talib, safety T.J. Ward, and defensive end DeMarcus Ware. Indy has some serious question marks along their offensive line, so unless Luck can pull off another miracle, this looks like a dud on Sunday Night Football. Broncos 38, Colts 23

The Wager: It’s very unlike me to back a public favorite in a prime time game, especially since this will be the Sunday bailout game for everyone who loses their shirt in the afternoon, but this has double-digit win written all over it. Seattle proved their dominance on Thursday night with a molestation of the Packers, and I think it’s highly likely that the Broncos make the same statement. I’m not a big believer in the revenge factor, but I do think that Manning has been waiting to avenge that loss to Luck for quite some time. Broncos -7.5 (widely available) - I don’t think it’s necessary to buy the hook

New York Giants @ Detroit Lions

Friday Consensus Line: Lions -6, total 47

The Pick: Let me get this out of the way quickly - the Giants went 5-0 in the preseason, and I don’t even remotely care. In fact, New York’s first team offense looked like a steaming pile of garbage in the preseason as Eli Manning seemed lost in the new West Coast offense installed by offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo. But again, I don’t care about the preseason, and I think that New York will be a lot better than most people think. Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams are a big upgrade over the scraps that the Giants were trotting out at running back last season, and they’ll take a lot of pressure off the shoulders of Manning. Jim Caldwell (LOLOLOL) takes over for Jim Schwartz (LMFAO) as the Lions head coach, which is a slight improvement, but still probably not enough to stop the Lions from doing what they do best, falling apart late in games. Matthew Stafford has thrown for over 9,600 yards in the last two seasons but has managed an unimpressive 49:36 touchdown-to-interception ratio. All sizzle, no steak. The Lions are a talented squad and I can break this one down in terms of X’s and O’s, but in the end, I know that Detroit will find a way to shoot themselves in the foot. Giants 24, Lions 21

The Wager: If I like the underdog to win the game, I usually play them against the spread, and that’s precisely what I’m going to do here. Year in and year out the public gets lured into thinking the Lions have turned things around, and each year they disappoint. New York is outstanding in the underdog role under Tom Coughlin and I think their first-team issues in the preseason have been blown out of proportion. Give me the dog. Woof. Giants +6 (widely available)

San Diego Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals

Friday Consensus Line: Cardinals -3, total 45

The Pick: The Cardinals have a lot of good things going for them under Bruce Arians, but I’m not convinced that they’ll actually take a step forward this season. Arizona has shored up some holes on their o-line, and still possess a very talented group of playmakers on offense, but there are some big question marks on defense. Linebacker Karlos Dansby has gone to Cleveland, fellow linebacker Daryl Washington is suspended, and defensive tackle Darnell Dockett is out for the season. Those are some big shoes to fill in the front seven. Philip Rivers had an MVP-caliber season last year (unfortunately there was also some guy named Manning who had a pretty good year himself), leading the Chargers to five straight wins and a playoff berth to close out the year. With Arizona’s lack of depth in their defensive front seven, Rivers should have plenty of time to find receivers downfield. The issue for San Diego will be slowing down Carson Palmer on the other side of things. Palmer has a surplus of talent at his disposal (although Andre Ellington is doubtful to play), but as will always be the case, he’ll be good for a couple of turnovers. In what has become a quarterback driven league, I’ll take the signal caller that I trust more. Chargers 30, Cardinals 27

The Wager: San Diego has opened Week 1 on Monday Night Football for four of the last five seasons. They know the drill, and I think they’ll be ready to go on Monday night. Ordinarily I’d be all over the Chargers here, but I actually prefer a play on the total in this contest. I think both offenses have an edge over the opposing defenses, and I don’t think either team will have an issue scoring into the 20s here. I have this total in the upper 40s, but we can grab a number in the mid 40s because of Arizona’s success on defense last season. I’ll take it. Over 45 (widely available)

Picks Summary

More NFL Betting Resources

Monday Line Report | Staff Picks
Week 1 Betting Preview
Game Day Betting Update
MNF Preview (Monday)