NFL Week 2 Betting Preview: Why a Giants upset is in the cards

Week 2 has arrived.

Last week I wrote “The opening week of the National Football League schedule is always tough on gamblers”. Well, it was especially tough on me. After getting off to a strong 2-0 start last Thursday by hitting on both the side and total in the Seahawks-Packers matchup, my Sunday and Monday picks were a combined 1-7. Not a good look. Regardless, I'm excited to get back at it this week and try to chip away at the losses that I've accumulated.

Before I preview this week’s games, my goal for Week 2 is to try to take advantage of overreactions to Week 1. The majority of NFL bettors tend to have a selective memory when it comes to handicapping NFL games, and subsequently, there is money to be made by betting against teams that are perceived to be better than they are. As such, there is money to be made betting on teams that are perceived to be worse than they are. This will be a recurring theme in my write-ups this week.

If you’re unfamiliar with my betting preview, take some time to read the intro to last week’s preview in order to better understand my approach. Once again, I've linked each game headline to the OddsShark matchup page which includes the betting consensus, trends, power stats, and other items of note for each game.

Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 2.

Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers

Friday Consensus Line: Panthers -2.5 (-115), total 43.5

The Pick: Detroit’s 35-14 demolition of the Giants on Monday Night Football is fresh in everyone’s minds, but I’m not ready to crown the Lions just yet. As we’ve seen in recent years, this Lions team can go from looking like a powerhouse at home to being a complete abomination on the road. They've also lost starting right tackle Corey Hilliard for the season, a big blow to an offense that will be facing a lethal Panthers’ pass rush. Carolina gets quarterback Cam Newton back this week and I think that the preseason talk about the lack of weapons on the Panthers’ offense was possibly a bit exaggerated. Opposing defensive coordinators aren’t going to lose sleep over the likes of Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen, and DeAngelo Williams, but they’d be wise not to underestimate them either. Newton has relished the role of the home favorite thus far in his young career, and although the Panthers may not get it done with any flash, I’ll side with the team that’s on the 12-2 straight up run. Panthers 24, Lions 17

The Wager: It’s entirely possible that these aren’t the same old Lions under new head coach Jim Caldwell, but I’ve had great success betting against Detroit coming off of a big win over the past several seasons, so I’m going to go back to the well here. In my opinion, Carolina actually had the more impressive victory out of these two squads in Week 1, taking their backup quarterback on the road within the division and pulling off the upset, but the public sees otherwise. No issues laying the short price here. Panthers -2.5 (widely available)

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills

Friday Consensus Line: Bills pk, total 42.5

The Pick: It’s only Week 2, but I didn't think we’d reach a point any time this season where the Bills and Dolphins would be playing for at least a share of the top spot in the AFC East. Both teams are coming off of impressive showings last week. Miami hung around with New England all game before dominating the fourth quarter en route to a double-digit victory. Their pass rush was outstanding all afternoon, but it’s one thing to attack a statue in the pocket, and it’s another to attack a mobile quarterback. EJ Manuel isn't as terrible as people think he is, and his career 91.8 passer rating at home is actually quite respectable. His legs will help him get out of some dangerous situations. The Dolphins don’t possess a great run stop unit and Buffalo should be able to move the ball rather efficiently on the ground, keeping Manuel in manageable situations all afternoon. Ryan Tannehill, on the other hand, has 22 turnovers to only 16 TD passes in 16 career games on the road, and now heads into one of the toughest places to play in the league (yeah, that’s right - Buffalo is no joke!). It’s the Bills on top of the AFC East come Sunday. Bills 20, Dolphins 16

The Wager: I’m not big into trends when making NFL wagers, preferring to look at matchups and spots. I hate the matchup and the spot for Miami. The Dolphins are coming off of a monumental win over the Patriots, and although this is a divisional matchup, I still view it as a potential flat spot. The same argument can be made for Buffalo who pulled off an upset last week, but they’re the ones returning home here for their home opener. Buffalo knocked off Miami twice last season and I feel that they’re a bad stylistic matchup for the Dolphins. Bills pk (widely available)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Washington Redskins

Friday Consensus Line: Redskins -6, total 43

The Pick: It’s only the third write-up of the week and already I’m looking for any excuse to leave this one until later on. The “should be better than they are” Redskins take on the “infinitely terrible” Jaguars in a game that I hope not to have to endure more than five seconds of on Sunday. Washington lost 17-6 to Houston last weekend, and although the score isn't flattering, that game could have ended up much differently. The Texans' two touchdowns came on a 76-yard play and a blocked punt return, while Washington’s attempts to answer those scores ended with two fumbles inside the Texans’ 10 yard line. A little bit of luck and it could have been the Redskins on the winning end. Washington should conceivably be able to move the ball against a Jags squad that gave up 34 unanswered points to a team missing three of their starting offensive lineman, but that’s far from a certainty with RG3 under center. One of these days, Griffin might just learn to throw the ball from inside the pocket, and if that’s ever going to happen, my best guess would be that it happens against the Jags. Redskins 23, Jaguars 14

The Wager: I don’t want anything to do with this game. It looks like oddsmakers are baiting people into grabbing the points with the Jags, but I just can’t fathom any scenario in which I could lay six points with the Redskins. Pass

Dallas Cowboys @ Tennessee Titans

Friday Consensus Line: Titans -3 (-125), total 49

The Pick: This is a tough one to call. Dallas probably isn't nearly as bad as they looked last week, and Tennessee probably isn't nearly as good as they looked last week either. The Cowboys have been great in the underdog role over the years because they usually play nationally televised games and the public is quick to overreact to what they saw last. If we’re looking at facts though, Dallas actually moved the ball fairly consistently against the 49ers last week but were done in by a bunch of early turnovers. Their defense wasn't great, but it wasn't the train wreck that was anticipated. I’m not ready to write them off as one of the league’s bottom feeders just yet. Tennessee’s offense should be able to exploit some holes though, especially with Ken Whisenhunt calling plays - a monumental upgrade over the useless Mike Munchak. The Titans have some good young receivers and a quarterback in Jake Locker who is steadily improving. At the end of the day, I don’t see much of a gap between either of these teams, but will side with the home-field advantage and the better coaching staff. Titans 28, Cowboys 27

The Wager: The LVH/Westgate advanced line in this game was Titans -2.5 but crossed the key number of three, getting up to -3.5 in some spots after last week’s outcomes. The line value lies with the underdog here, but I just can’t stomach a wager on Dallas right now, nor do I think I’ll be able to at any point under Jason Garrett. That may change at some point, but for now, I’d rather not play this one. Pass

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants

Friday Consensus Line: Cardinals -2.5, total 42.5

The Pick: The Giants’ performance on Monday Night Football may have taken a full year off of my life. New York improved their defense through free agency in the offseason, but it surely didn’t show on Monday night as they got lit up by the Lions. Meanwhile, Arizona looked awful for three quarters against the Chargers before rallying in the fourth quarter to win 18-17. So now, we have yet another situation where neither team is really being valued accurately. I don’t believe the Cardinals are as good as advertised. Arizona is missing a lot of key pieces with defensive tackle Darnell Dockett on IR, linebacker Daryl Washington still suspended, and now linebacker John Abraham contemplating retirement due to concussion issues. New York obviously hasn’t worked out the kinks of their new West Coast offense just yet, but they’ll continue to improve offensively with each game. I also think the Giants’ front seven can wreak havoc on a Cardinals’ offensive line that was giving up a lot of pressure to the Chargers on Monday. Carson Palmer turned the ball over 15 times in eight road games last season, and if that happens again on Sunday, we have a Giants upset in the making. Giants 19, Cardinals 16

The Wager: Aside from the overreaction to Week 1, I think Arizona is in an absolutely horrendous spot here. The Cards have to make the trip from Arizona to New York for an early start on short rest, which is obviously less than ideal. Granted, the Giants are on short rest as well, but they’re returning home to their usual time zone. And as far as line value is concerned, the current betting line implies that the Cardinals would be laying 8.5 points at home to the Giants, which in my opinion, is comical. Hold your nose and take the ugly home dog. Giants +3 (CRIS), although I’d play the Giants at any underdog price

New England Patriots @ Minnesota Vikings

Friday Consensus Line: Patriots -3 (+100), total 49

The Pick: The Patriots were destroyed by the Dolphins in the second half last week, while the Vikings were wiping the floor with the Rams in St. Louis. But public perception hasn’t changed one bit here. Last week was considered a blip on the radar for New England - there’s no way they start the season 0-2, right? Well, I would never say never in the NFL, but Tom Brady and Bill Belichick both have a great track record of bouncing back after losses. Belichick especially will have some insight into the Vikings' quarterback here, as Matt Cassel served as the backup (and eventual starter) to Tom Brady years ago in New England. Cassel was good last week, but he was also lucky, as the Rams dropped a pair of easy interceptions in the first half. Luckily, he can rely on handing the ball off to Adrian Peterson to ensure that he’s not facing third-and-longs all afternoon. This is particularly important because New England is going to score. Brady struggled in the Miami heat last week, as he usually does, but a full week of practice with tight end Rob Gronkowski and a change of venue may be just what the doctor ordered. Minnesota won’t be a cakewalk under new head coach Mike Zimmer, but they’re slightly outclassed here. Patriots 27, Vikings 23

The Wager: I originally bet the Patriots as 3-point favorites when the line first opened, hoping that the public would drive it up and I could look for a middle opportunity in this game. But the line isn’t being driven up. In fact, it may drop to 2.5 at some offshores at some point, which begs the question: Why did Vegas set this line at -3? They could have easily set it higher and still had the public pounding the Patriots, but they didn’t. Something just seems off. New England could very well win this game by double-digits, but I won’t lose any sleep over a missed wager if that happens. Pass

New Orleans Saints @ Cleveland Browns

Friday Consensus Line: Saints -6.5, total 47.5

The Pick: I may have had a terrible Week 1, but one of the things that I did get right was the Saints losing yet another road game. It’s like clockwork. New Orleans didn’t exactly play a terrible game, though. The Saints were actually pretty sharp on offense, but ran into a scorching hot Matt Ryan, who was seemingly making every tough throw all afternoon. The usually reliable Browns’ defense got scorched by the Steelers last weekend, and while I'll be careful not to overreact to one game, it's not exactly promising to see that type of performance before Brees and company come to town. Cleveland may not get torn up in their home opener, but they’re not going to shut down the Saints either, who now actually have some semblance of a running game in the form of Mark Ingram. I do think the Browns can score some points though. Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell were very effective in place of the injured Ben Tate, and provide solid options out of the backfield for the underrated Brian Hoyer. The Browns don’t possess the type of receivers that the Falcons do (understatement of the year), but there will be opportunities to exploit the Saints’ secondary, just like the Falcons did last week. At the end of the day, the Saints are desperate, but that’s not why I'm going to pick them - the Saints are simply the better team, even with the disadvantage of being on the road. Saints 26, Browns 23

The Wager: Similarly to Brady & Belichick, Brees & Payton are a duo that you don’t want to mess around with after a loss, but oddsmakers know this. The Saints are a bigger favorite now than they were in the LVH/WestGate advanced lines, despite having lost last weekend. No one thinks the Saints can start 0-2, but getting a full touchdown with the home underdog is very enticing. Screw it; I’ve talked myself into it. Browns +7 (5 Dimes), I’d only play this at a full touchdown or more. Pass at +6.5.

Atlanta Falcons @ Cincinnati Bengals

Friday Consensus Line: Bengals -5, total 49

The Pick: I have this pegged as the blowout of the week. Atlanta looked great last week against New Orleans, but this is a terrible spot and matchup for them. For starters, the Falcons just played their “Super Bowl” and won. Atlanta had that Week 1 game against the Saints circled since the schedule was released, and they simply won’t be able to bring the same energy to this non-conference road battle. But let’s imagine Atlanta doesn’t get caught flat. This team lives and dies on their offense, and that could be a major issue with both of their starting offensive tackles out this week. Matt Ryan will not have time in the pocket to make plays down the field, and the Bengals’ stingy run defense will force the Boston College product into a lot of unfavorable situations all afternoon. On the other side of things, people seem to be down on Cincinnati’s offense as they had to settle for a lot of field goals last week against Baltimore, but they moved the ball fairly consistently in a tough venue. The Falcons’ secondary is terrible and is made even worse by their complete lack of a pass rush. Anyone who thinks this will be a close game will be highly disappointed. Bengals 35, Falcons 17

The Wager: It’s not exactly a well-kept secret that the Bengals were a dominant home team last season, but people seem to be blinded by Atlanta’s success at home versus New Orleans last week. I think that Cincinnati has a big edge on the field and a big edge in terms of psychology for this one, so I won’t even think twice about laying the points here. The Bengals’ defense is one of the few stop units in the league where I’m not worried about a back door cover. Bengals -5 (widely available)

St. Louis Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Friday Consensus Line: Bucs -6, total 37

The Pick: Ugh. That pretty much sums up my thoughts on this one. I thought the Bucs would be improved this season under Lovie Smith, but that theory was disproven pretty quickly when Tampa found a way to lose to Derek Anderson last week. Can they make it back-to-back losses to backup quarterbacks? I don’t see why not. Tampa should be able to hold their own against whichever scrub the Rams trot out at quarterback, but their offense is extremely concerning right now. The Bucs’ issues start on their offensive line, where they’ll be without recently acquired guard Logan Mankins for this matchup. Tampa catches a break with Chris Long’s injury, but the Rams’ front seven is still strong enough to wreak havoc on Josh McCown all afternoon. We all saw how that worked out for McCown last week. The Rams also had a top-five rush defense a year ago, so it’ll be difficult for the Bucs to establish Doug Martin on the ground as well. When all is said and done, this will likely be an ugly game from start to finish. The Rams have the ability to pull the upset if their offense can do anything whatsoever, but I just don’t trust that group to do anything whatsoever. Bucs 19, Rams 13

The Wager: I can see this game ending in a variety of ways, which makes it one of the less appealing games on this weekend’s card. The Bucs haven’t covered the spread as a six-plus point favorite in almost four years, which makes them ridiculously difficult to back in this spot, but the Rams are just so damn bad. This line is super inflated after the Rams' blowout loss last weekend, but it’s still not enough to entice me. Pass

Seattle Seahawks @ San Diego Chargers

Friday Consensus Line: Seahawks -6, total of 44

The Pick: Seattle began their Super Bowl defense with an obliteration of the Packers on Thursday Night Football. There’s no doubt that the Seahawks were extremely impressive in that contest, though I can’t help but think that the Chargers will give them a tougher test on Sunday. If there’s one weakness to this Seahawks squad, it’s their offensive line, and the Chargers have an improved pass rush this season. Linebackers Dwight Freeney and Melvin Ingram were putting Carson Palmer under constant duress on Monday night, and have the ability to do the same to Russell Wilson again this week. Wilson’s average QB rating in games where he was sacked three or more times last season was 84.8, compared to an immaculate 113.2 average rating in games where he was sacked two or fewer times. Unfortunately for the Chargers, they also have to deal with the Seahawks’ defense. Philip Rivers’ offensive line did not hold up against another NFC West defense on Monday night, and they’ll struggle to do so this week, especially now that center Nick Hardwick is on the injured reserve list. The Seahawks love to apply pressure, but that also plays right into the hands of Philip Rivers, who Pro Football Focus rated as the best quarterback in the league against the blitz. I guess you can call this a gut feeling, but with a Super Bowl rematch against the Broncos on deck next week, I feel as though Seattle is very susceptible here. Chargers 23, Seahawks 20

The Wager: The Seahawks have been a cash cow over the past few seasons, and subsequently, I think we’ll find that they’ll be overvalued quite a bit this year. Seattle is coming off of extra rest, while the Chargers are on short rest, but I'm not convinced that matters a whole lot in just the second week of the season. If Seattle didn’t look so damn strong against an overrated Packers team, this line is probably somewhere in the 3.5-to-4 range. Instead, it’s up around six points. I’m not going to pass that up, especially since I believe San Diego can win this game outright. Chargers +6 (widely available)

Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders

Friday Consensus Line: Texans -3 (+100), total 40

The Pick: Houston is nowhere near as bad as the 2-14 record that they put up a year ago, but they’re still a pretty bad football team. Let’s pump the brakes a little bit. The Texans beat the Redskins 17-6 last week, but they were outgained at home by a pretty subpar Washington squad. That’s not a good sign. Also not a good sign is that they’ll have to continue to rely on journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. Fitzy looked decent enough against the ‘Skins last week, but I’m not sold on a guy that’s committed 63 turnovers in 40 career road games. With that being said, it’s hard to get behind the Raiders, who looked absolutely terrible in Week 1 in New York. Granted, that was a road game, and now they head home, but I saw nothing out of Derek Carr that made me think he’s ready to compete at the NFL level. Carr should at least be able to get some help from the running game this week as the Texans aren't that stout against opposing rushing attacks, but will that be enough? I’m not quite sure. When in doubt, be a hero and take the home underdog. Raiders 20, Texans 17

The Wager: There are a lot of things working in the Raiders’ favor here. For one, Houston is making the trip to the West Coast - that's normally not a profitable spot. And something that seems to be flying under the radar is Matt Schaub’s knowledge of this Texans squad. Schaub knows the ins and outs of the Texans’ offensive and defensive personnel, and should be able to contribute some positives to Oakland’s game plan. I’m still not betting on Oakland though. Pass

New York Jets @ Green Bay Packers

Friday Consensus Line: Packers -8, total 46

The Pick: It’s always tempting to take the Packers off of a loss, especially after an embarrassing loss on national television, but I don’t see this as a particularly good matchup for them. I just can’t get over the issues on the Packers’ offensive line. Everyone assumes Aaron Rodgers is just going to be in F-U mode and torch the Jets, but the Packers could be without right tackle Bryan Bulaga (or will at best have a limited version of him), center J.C. Tretter, and top backup offensive tackle Don Barclay. Rodgers isn’t a miracle worker. I don’t know how he holds up behind that offensive line, especially against the Jets’ quality defensive line. Maybe the extra preparation time will have helped the Packers figure out a way to pass protect, but I’m not counting on that. New York will have every opportunity to keep this game close, and possibly pull out a victory, but that hinges on Geno Smith protecting the ball, which is a feat that isn't easily accomplished. The Jets should have success on the ground though, especially with Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji out for the season. New York has the tools to keep Rodgers on the sideline for extended periods of time, and that in itself should be enough for them to hang around. In the end, I’m not picking against the Packers at Lambeau, especially with an angry Rodgers, but I don’t think this shakes down as the blowout that everyone envisions. Packers 26, Jets 20

The Wager: When the lines first opened for this week, I immediately circled Green Bay for the obvious reasons - they're coming off of an embarrassing loss, home opener at Lambeau, Smith is an atrocity on the road, blah, blah, blah. But after breaking down this matchup I really don’t like the Packers at all. I hate going against my gut instinct, so I’m not making a play here, but I came awfully close to playing the Jets. Pass

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

Friday Consensus Line: Broncos -11.5, total 51

The Pick: LOLOLOL is the best way to describe the Chiefs’ performance at home against the Titans last week. The game was a debacle from start to finish. The $68-million man, Alex Smith, barely looked like a man worth $68, completing just 21 of his 45 pass attempts against a pedestrian Titans defense. To make matters worse, he couldn’t rely on Jamaal Charles, because classic Andy Reid showed up and decided that it wasn't a good idea to give substantial touches to the best player on the field. And then to top it all off, the Chiefs lost two of their starting front seven defenders, linebacker Derrick Johnson and defensive end Mike DeVito, to season-ending Achilles injuries. I wouldn't count on a moronic Chiefs game plan again this week, although that's a definite possibility with Reid. Charles will get his touches, and the offense will be better than they were last week, but it probably won’t be enough to keep up with Peyton Manning and company. Manning looked awesome in the first half of last week’s game, but then someone kidnapped Archie Manning at halftime and demanded that Peyton tank the second half if he ever wanted to see his father again. That’s the only explanation I can think of for what happened. Anyways, it’s rather pointless in going into detail on the Broncos’ offense - they’re going to score, but not at the insane output of last season. Even when the Chiefs’ defense fell apart in the second half of last season, they “held” the Broncos to 27 and 35 points in their two meetings. More of the same this time around. Broncos 27, Chiefs 20

The Wager: I’m betting this one strictly out of principle. The Chiefs aren’t very good, and the Broncos are, but a double-digit divisional underdog in Week 2 of the season? Sign me up. Denver has Seattle on deck next week and they could easily take their foot off the pedal if they have a big lead in the late stages of this game. They’re also susceptible to the back door cover as evidenced by last week’s shit show in the fourth quarter (yeah, I still haven’t gotten over that yet). And frankly, there’s a possibility that neither of those scenarios happens and that the Chiefs hang tight all game long. Either way, give me the points. Chiefs +13 (Pinnacle)

Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers

Friday Consensus Line: 49ers -6.5 (-115), total 48.5

The Pick: Overreaction alert. The Bears aren't as bad as they looked in their Week 1 loss to the Bills and the 49ers aren't as good as they looked in their easy Week 1 “road victory” - there were more 49ers fans in Dallas than Cowboys fans - over Dallas. San Francisco plays their first game in the new Levi’s Stadium and that adds an extra element of pressure for the home team. The 49ers’ defense is a concern as well. DeMarco Murray ran wild on the depleted 49ers front seven last week, and the Bears should be able to do the same with Matt Forte. Timely forced turnovers led to a San Francisco blowout, and it’s certainly possible that drunk Jay Cutler may show up again on Sunday night, but there will come a time when the 49ers’ defense can’t rely on turnovers. Unfortunately for Cutler, both Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are dealing with injuries and questionable to play. Without those two weapons, the Bears are pretty much toast. That’s because their defense will make your eyes bleed. Chicago’s defense is devoid of talent so Colin Kaepernick shouldn't have much trouble moving the ball with any consistency on Sunday night. The Bears will play with some pride after losing at home in their opener, but at the end of the day, I just don’t think they have the talent to knock off San Francisco on the road. 49ers 30, Bears 26

The Wager: I’m desperately looking for reasons to get behind Chicago but I just can’t do it. The 49ers will be the bailout play if the public has a losing afternoon (just like the Broncos last week), which makes the Bears tempting, but there are too many factors keeping me off of it. The injury concerns to Chicago’s pair of stud receivers are one major red flag. Circadian rhythms are another. All in all, this is just not enough points for me to get behind the Bears. Pass

Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts

Friday Consensus Line: Colts -3 (-115), total 54

The Pick: A college rivalry renewed. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck and offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton are both familiar with squaring off against Eagles head coach Chip Kelly from their Stanford-Oregon days at the collegiate level. By now, it’s a well known fact that Luck has not lost back-to-back games in his NFL career, but that alone isn’t enough for me to get behind the Colts. There’s something that just bothers me about this Colts team. Luck is a stud, but the lack of a running game and the propensity to fall behind early in every game are major concerns. Fortunately for the Colts, they shouldn’t face much resistance from an Eagles defense that, well, just isn't very good. Philadelphia also has its fair share of problems on offense. They enter this week without three starters along the offensive line, and they also have some major concerns at quarterback. Nick Foles turned the ball over just four times all of last season, but had issues protecting the ball in last week’s win over Jacksonville, coughing it up twice and throwing a pick along the way. I've always been skeptical about Foles, and I certainly don’t have enough trust in his ability to offset Luck. Luckily for the Eagles, they still have some guy out of the backfield named LeSean McCoy, and last time I checked, the Colts gave up 4.5 yards per carry last season. I could really see this game going either way, but I’ll respect the Luck bounce back factor and give a small edge to Indy. Colts 31, Eagles 28

The Wager: Both of these teams are pretty evenly matched, so I’m not really rushing to make a play on what I think is a pretty accurate spread. The Colts are playing back-to-back prime time games which could definitely cause them to be flat on Monday night. The Eagles also strike me as the type of team that could build up a margin and not let the Colts back into it. In what should be a pretty good football game, I'm fine with kicking back and enjoying it on Monday night. Pass

Picks Summary

More NFL Betting Resources

Monday Line Report | Staff Picks
Game Day Betting Update 
MNF Preview (Monday)