Colorado Avalanche: 3 storylines to watch this season
theScore's NHL editors take a look at three storylines to watch for each NHL team heading into the regular season.
Battling regression
The Colorado Avalanche shocked the NHL last season with a 112-point campaign that was good enough to win a highly competitive Central Division. But many pointed to their first-round playoff exit as an indication that they had overachieved in the regular season.
That assumption was backed up by statistics that tend to indicate sustainability. The Avalanche posted the league's best road record (26-11-4) despite being one of the worst teams in terms of even-strength shot differential, and ended up with the league's highest winning percentage in contests in which they were outshot.
The most obvious reason for Colorado's unlikely success was the play of Semyon Varlamov, who was the only goaltender in the league to face over 2,000 shots in 2013-14 and posted a .937 save percentage at even strength. Varlamov's breakout season earned him a Vezina nomination, but his career numbers suggest he is due to regress at least slightly - and the Avalanche are likely to follow.
One thing working in Colorado's favor is youth: Varlamov is 26, Matt Duchene and Ryan O'Reilly are both 23, captain Gabriel Landeskog is 21, and Nathan MacKinnon is a season away from being 20. This elite young core's continued development puts Colorado in an enviable position, and could mitigate the expected statistical regression this season.
Nathan MacKinnon's ceiling
MacKinnon's 63-point rookie season made him a shoo-in to win the Calder Trophy, but his postseason performance suggested that the 18-year-old was just getting started.
MacKinnon recorded 10 points in Colorado's seven-game series against the Minnesota Wild, tying linemate Paul Stastny for the team lead. He scored the overtime winner in Game 5 to give the Avalanche a 3-2 series lead and turned plenty of heads with this individual effort as part of a four-point performance in Game 2:
Stastny and P.A. Parenteau - MacKinnon's other main linemate during the playoffs - are no longer on Colorado's roster, but MacKinnon played well with Landeskog, whom he shared more regular season ice-time with than any other forward at even strength. Spending more time alongside the defensively responsible Landeskog, who finished with 65 points last season, should help MacKinnon's development as one of the league's most exciting offensive talents.
There's no way to tell how high MacKinnon will rise in his sophomore campaign, but the possibilities are tantalizing. A 70 or 80-point season seems within reach, as does the 30-goal plateau. MacKinnon's Cole Harbour counterpart Sidney Crosby recorded 120 points and captured his first Hart Trophy as a 19-year-old, and while MacKinnon is not yet near those milestones, he could be on the right track.
What does Jarome Iginla have left?
Jarome Iginla was written off as a man in the twilight of his career when he was dealt by the Calgary Flames, who shipped him to the Pittsburgh Penguins at the 2013 trade deadline after nine seasons as their captain.
Iginla then signed a performance bonus-laden one-year deal with the Boston Bruins for 2013-14 and proceeded to surpass all expectations - recording his 12th career 30-goal season at the age of 36 - before hitting the free agent market again in a much more favorable position.
Colorado is banking on Iginla's production continuing for three more years, as they signed the veteran through his 39-year-old season at an annual cap hit of $5.33 million. He is expected to start the season on a scoring line with Duchene and O'Reilly, so the only potentially limiting factor is how much he has left in the tank.
It's not unprecedented for star players to stay productive as they approach 40. Jaromir Jagr recorded 60 points with the New Jersey Devils last season at the age of 42, Ray Whitney had 77 points as a 39-year-old in 2011-12, and Teemu Selanne recorded his last 80-point season in 2010-11, at 40.
But even if Iginla is productive for one or two more seasons, handing a multi-year deal to a player on the wrong side of 35 was a risk a young Avalanche team didn't need to take.
Colorado has an abundance of scoring talent on its roster and committing more than a $5 million to a player who will be 39 in 2016 - when both MacKinnon and defenseman Tyson Barrie are due for raises - could easily backfire. Iginla spent 16 seasons being idolized in Calgary, but he will need to work hard to avoid ending his career as a scapegoat for Avalanche fans.