Fantasy - Fact or Fiction: 3 players to watch using advanced stats

Every Tuesday, we examine 3 players you should watch in your hockey pool using advanced statistics.

Inevitable overreactions occur early on in fantasy hockey pools on two fronts: on one hand, managers dump players off to slow starts without considering overall career production, on the other hand they jump on players coming in hot but unlikely to sustain their early numbers.

These days, there's a host of ways to assess a player's production in order to determine whether hot or cold streaks are the norm or an anomaly.

Here are three players to watch, using advanced stats to prove whether their respective starts to the season are the real deal.

Tuukka Rask, G, Boston Bruins

Through five games this season, the reigning Vezina Trophy-winner's five-on-five save percentage sits at .887, sandwiched in between the likes of Winnipeg's Ondrej Pavelec and Philadelphia's Steve Mason. 

Historically, this isn't the kind of company kept by an elite-level goalie.

Overall, Rask is 2-3-0 this season, allowing 14 goals on 108 shots for a save percentage of .870.

As a team, the Bruins rank fifth in the NHL with a Corsi For percentage of 55.3, but changes on the blue line (most notably the trading of Johnny Boychuk) compounded by growing pains of young defenseman pushed into bigger roles and a general discombobulation from the team as a whole (as evidenced by a 5.77 even strength shooting percentage in his starts) has left Rask, at times, more exposed than usual. 

Rask took the night off Saturday - a 4-0 win over the lowly Buffalo Sabres - but will face tough tests coming up, with games against the San Jose Sharks and New York Islanders.

While his numbers are sure to rise closer to his career save percentage of .927, it might take some time for managers to get the kind of production they were expecting from the top-rated fantasy goalie.

Brock Nelson, F, New York Islanders

With four goals and four assists in five games, Nelson finds himself tied for second among the NHL's scoring leaders after a hot start on a line with Ryan Strome and Mikhail Grabovski.

Owned in only 49 percent of Yahoo leagues, it leads the other 51 percent to wonder if they should unleash a full Nelson on the opposition.

Nelson had a distinct advantage in terms of his deployment in the first few games of the season, largely enabling his early success. Head coach Jack Capuano slotted Nelson as a center on the second line as opposed to John Tavares's wing man, meaning he's been kept away from the opposition's top defensive units. 

As a result, Nelson's rolling with a 57.58 Corsi For percentage at even strength, while starting only 41.7 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone (according to War On Ice).

But consider the fact Nelson's four goals have come on five total shots, and it's safe to say he won't continue to succeed at a rate of 80 percent and a PDO (meaning the sum of a player's on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage) of 114.4.

Signs of regression were evident after Grabovski went down with a concussion during the Islanders' fourth game of the season. Nelson, now lining up with Nikolai Kulemin and Cal Clutterbuck, failed to record a single shot on net in the past two games, with only one assist to his credit.

Nelson managed only 14 goals and 12 assists in 72 games last season, and hopes of a meteoric rise should be tempered, especially while Grabovski is on the shelf.

James Neal, F Nashville Predators

With one goal in five games, Neal hasn't quite brought the offensive bite the Predators were expecting from the former 40-goal scorer. 

What we're seeing, however, might just be a case of a forward adjusting to life on a new team, in a new conference, and with a new head coach.

While in Pittsburgh, Neal benefited from a second-line assignment alongside a superstar center in Evgeni Malkin, a rare treat for wingers these days. In Nashville, Neal's on the top line with Mike Ribeiro and rookie Filip Forsberg, and routinely matches up against the top defenders in the super-competitive Western Conference.

Still, Neal is averaging 3.2 shots on goal per game, putting him on pace for 262 over the course of 82 games, the second-highest total of his career. His 6.3 shooting percentage is well down from his career average of 12.4, and his PDO sits at 87.3, while his Corsi For percentage sits at 51.6 (according to War On ice). 

Add it all up, and his Predator should start feasting in the near future.