Wimbledon final preview: Raonic looks to spoil host Murray's party
The men's Wimbledon final will offer a heretofore unseen opportunity for world No. 2 Andy Murray: For once, he'll be playing for a majors title against someone other than Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic. For the first time, he'll go in as the favorite.
As much as anything, Murray's career has been defined by poor timing. He's now tied for ninth among all men in the Open era with 11 Grand Slam finals appearances. Nobody else who's made even six Slam finals has won fewer than four titles. Thanks to Federer and Djokovic, Murray has won just two. His most recent of those, you might remember, came at the All England Club in 2013, when he ended a 77-year title drought for Brits at Wimbledon.
And now, here he is; back at the site of his most famous victory, with his longtime tormentors out of the picture, and a third Slam title just three sets away. Standing in his way: A poised, surging, confident, huge-serving Canadian making his majors-final debut, who'd like nothing more than to send the home crowd home unhappy.
Milos Raonic had Murray on the ropes in the Australian Open semis five months ago, up two sets to one before being derailed by an adductor injury. Now, on the sport's biggest stage, he gets a chance to finish what he started.
Fire and Ice
This matchup pits one of the tour's best servers against one of its best returners; one of its most explosive offensive players against one of its most impenetrable defenders; puncher against counter-puncher; fire against ice.
Robert Frost's take:
From what I've tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
Raonic is averaging 23 aces per match in the tournament, and on grass this year he's won over 94 percent of his service games. Against Federer in the semis, his serve consistently bailed him out of trouble, helping him save eight of nine break points. Murray's biggest challenge will be putting Raonic's first serves back in play and trying to neutralize those points before Raonic has a chance to end them at the net.
It's when those first serves don't land that things could get really interesting. Against Federer, Raonic accepted 11 double-faults as a consequence of cranking up the volume on his second serve. (His average second-serve speed in the tournament - 113 mph - is just four mph slower than Murray's average first). Expect the same approach Sunday. Murray loves to encroach and take opponents' second serves from well inside the baseline, but Raonic will try to make him adjust.
Frost's take:
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.
For all his daring, Raonic still lost 54 percent of his second-serve points against Federer, and Murray's a better second-serve returner, having won a tournament-best 64 percent of such points this fortnight.
Murray is uniquely equipped to deal with Raonic's firepower. Not only can he keep the ball in play as well as anyone, he's a tremendous passer and an even better lobber, two shots that could cool Raonic's blazing net game.
The long-armed No. 6 seed showcased some of the best volleying of his career at the All England Club, but hasn't yet faced anyone who's as quick to the ball as Murray, or as capable of turning defense to offense on the full sprint. Still, getting to the net early will be imperative for Raonic, as getting involved in long baseline exchanges with Murray is a sure way for the far less fleet-footed Canadian to get himself beat. Murray's attempts to stymie Raonic's forward movement should make for a fascinating game of cat and mouse.
Murray leads the pair's head-to-head 6-3 and has won their last five meetings, but the margins separating the two are slimmer than that would suggest. On top of being let off the hook in Melbourne, Murray had to come back from a set and a break down to beat Raonic in the Queen's Club final three weeks ago.
Raonic told Murray postmatch that he wanted a rematch at Wimbledon. He fished his wish.
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