After breaking through in a massive way at this year's Australian Open, world No. 3 Stan Wawrinka was considered by many to be the next big challenger to the Big Four dynasty, perhaps the most serious threat to the established order of men's tennis since Juan Martin Del Potro busted loose as a 20-year-old in 2009.
His subsequent victory at the Monte Carlo Masters in April not only proved the Aussie had been no fluke, it also proved that Wawrinka could win big on clay. As such, he came into the French Open with the third-best odds (6-to-1) of winning the tournament, right behind Nos. 1 and 2, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, who only have 19 Grand Slam titles between them.
But Wawrinka's Roland Garros dreams came crashing down on Monday, as the worlds top-ranked Swiss man was knocked out in the first round by Spaniard Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, 6-4, 5-7, 6-2, 6-0.
Those last two sets were particularly ugly, and Wawrinka seemed all but resigned to defeat right from the outset of the fourth. He made an insane 62 errors in the match, compared to just 28 from Guillermo-Lopez, who seemed content to play conservatively and let his opponent beat himself.
Wawrinka also couldn't get his serve going, converting just 57 percent of his first serves, and winning just 54 percent of first-serve points. The service game is typically one of his biggest strengths, and he's fifth on the tour in first-serve point percentage (78) in 2014.
It's possible Wawrinka was hampered by an injury we don't know about, but realistically, this result is probably not as surprising as it might look at first glance. The loss is a head-scratcher, to be certain, but in hindsight some of the writing may have already been on the wall. Aside from his two landmark wins, Wawrinka has already met with a host of disappointing results in 2014:
He fell in the Round of 16 at Masters events in both Indian Wells and Miami, to 18th-ranked Kevin Anderson, and 23rd-ranked Alexandr Dolgopolov, respectively. He lost to unseeded 20-year-old Dominic Thiem in the second round in Madrid, and to 36-year-old Tommy Haas in the third round in Rome. Old or young, they've found a way to solve Wawrinka.
Guillermo-Lopez isn't exactly a patsy when it comes to first-round opponents, either. He's No. 39 in the world, is playing in his 38th Gand Slam, and has nine career wins over top-10 players to his name. These losses happen, and they happen a lot.
This isn't to say that Wawrinka's early 2014 run was a mirage; only that he hasn't yet reached the point, as the other top guys have, in which he's automatic in the early rounds at five-set tournaments. That takes time at the top - of which Wawrinka has spent little - and mental fortitude, which he displayed none of in punting the final set against Garcia-Lopez, when he could very well have clawed his way back.
This kind of thing used to happen to Djokovic all the time. It happened to Nadal, too, on any surface that wasn't clay. It's a bad loss, but not an unthinkable one, and all it means for now is that Wawrinka will have that much more time to focus on preparing for Wimbledon.