Now what?  That's the question hovering over the Toronto Blue Jays after they failed to reach a c...

Now what?That's the question hovering over the Toronto Blue Jays after they failed to reach a contract extension with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. before his Monday deadline.You can never say never, but it appears each side made its last, best offer. Guerrero will enter free agency at the end of the season, and he'll likely be the top player available at the age of 26.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>"I'm here. We didn't get an agreement," Guerrero said through an interpreter Tuesday. "Now, they're going to have to compete with 29 other teams."Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins <a href="https://x.com/ShiDavidi/status/1891851417670873478">told reporters</a>: "I'm confident that we exhausted the communication, the ideas, the thoughts, and communicated every dollar, and (we) felt (agent Barr Praver) and Vlad got to the point that they were comfortable as well. It just wasn't close enough."The Blue Jays made Guerrero a $340-million offer earlier this offseason, but that was before Juan Soto signed a record $765-million pact with the New York Mets. Guerrero <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3-Se4eGa5c">told</a> the "Abriendo Sports" podcast in December that the figure was "not even close to what we're looking for."<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759900/cropped_GettyImages-2165033427.jpg?ts=1739910834" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759900/w220xh124_GettyImages-2165033427.jpg?ts=1739910834 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759900/w320xh180_GettyImages-2165033427.jpg?ts=1739910834 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759900/w640xh360_GettyImages-2165033427.jpg?ts=1739910834 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759900/w768xh432_GettyImages-2165033427.jpg?ts=1739910834 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759900/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2165033427.jpg?ts=1739910834 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Jim McIsaac / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The size of Soto's contract likely ended any chance of an extension because it reset the market for young superstar free agents. That put the Jays in an awkward position with Guerrero. While he's the face of the franchise, he isn't Soto.Soto recorded 17.8 fWAR in the three seasons leading up to his free agency at the age of 26. Guerrero's three-year total for his age 23-25 seasons is 10.1 fWAR.Guerrero isn't Shohei Ohtani, either. Ohtani is a unicorn talent and marketing figure who totaled 15.1 fWAR in the three years before signing with the Dodgers.The Jays pursued all three and fell short every time.Further complicating matters is the market for first basemen isn't what it used to be.While Pete Alonso is more than four years older than Guerrero, he had to settle for a short-term deal with the New York Mets this offseason despite hitting a position-leading 120 home runs over the last three seasons.The largest contracts for free-agent first basemen were signed more than a decade ago: Albert Pujols' 10-year, $240-million deal with the Angels and Prince Fielder's nine-year, $214-million deal with Detroit, both following the 2011 season. The Jays haven't signed any homegrown players to extensions under Atkins and president Mark Shapiro. In the case of Guerrero, they waited too long to get serious.The Angels signed Mike Trout to a six-year, $144-million deal in 2014 after his second year in the majors, buying out two years of his free agency. Bobby Witt Jr. signed an 11-year, $288-million deal prior to his 2024 breakout season with Kansas City, his third in the majors.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742763/cropped_GettyImages-2167858673.jpg?ts=1739910987" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742763/w220xh124_GettyImages-2167858673.jpg?ts=1739910987 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742763/w320xh180_GettyImages-2167858673.jpg?ts=1739910987 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742763/w640xh360_GettyImages-2167858673.jpg?ts=1739910987 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742763/w768xh432_GettyImages-2167858673.jpg?ts=1739910987 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742763/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2167858673.jpg?ts=1739910987 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Lauren Leigh Bacho / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>There are rare cases when long-term deals can be signed on the cusp of free agency, like Rafael Devers' 10-year, $313-million deal with the Red Sox before he entered his final season of club control in 2023. But Boston was essentially paying an open-market rate.It was never going to be easy to reach a deal, and it was made more difficult with time and recent contracts.With Guerrero intent to test the market, what do the Jays do now?There are two options: try to trade him (for major-league help or a better return than the draft-pick compensation they'll receive if he signs elsewhere) or keep him and hope the club can reach the playoffs (which could enhance the chances of re-signing him after the season).If one is only concerned about future surplus value for the club, it might make sense to entertain a trade as soon as possible. But the 2025 season isn't being played out in a vacuum, and it makes little sense to trade him right now, certainly not for a prospect-focused package.Failing to extend Guerrero doesn't change anything about 2025. The Blue Jays just executed an offseason plan, and did so reasonably well by <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3216725" href="https://thescore.com/news/3216725">my assessment</a>, to improve their short-term chances. Plan A to land Soto didn't work out, but they strengthened the roster with external additions in Anthony Santander, Andrés Giménez, Jeff Hoffman, and Yimi García.In many ways, the Blue Jays operated as if their window was closing soon, so there's no reason to accelerate that process. Nothing has changed about the coming season. <figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770622/cropped_GettyImages-2160481079.jpg?ts=1739560726" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770622/w220xh124_GettyImages-2160481079.jpg?ts=1739560726 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770622/w320xh180_GettyImages-2160481079.jpg?ts=1739560726 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770622/w640xh360_GettyImages-2160481079.jpg?ts=1739560726 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770622/w768xh432_GettyImages-2160481079.jpg?ts=1739560726 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770622/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2160481079.jpg?ts=1739560726 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mark Blinch / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Beyond Guerrero, the starting rotation, the foundation of most successful teams, will look different soon enough.Chris Bassitt (signed through 2025), Max Scherzer (2025), and Kevin Gausman (2026) are all on short-term deals. The club could also find a market for Jose Berríos (2028) and his durable, mid-rotation arm.Toronto has just five players with guaranteed money signed for 2027, along with a poor farm system. The team will have to retool at some point - it's just a matter of when to start. The Jays chose to delay that inevitability. Shedding the keystone of the lineup now doesn't align with their winter maneuverings.Plus, trading a player in his final season of club control generally doesn't yield much of a trade return.Perhaps the club could've explored a Kyle Tucker-like trade, in which the Houston Astros sent the star outfielder, also in his final year of club control, to the Chicago Cubs for third baseman Isaac Paredes, pitcher Hayden Wesneski, and prospect Cam Smith.But even with that deal, it's difficult to see the Astros improving in the short term. Houston lowered its 2025 ceiling by trading its arguably best position player.If Toronto is out of contention by mid-summer, the calculus changes. But for now, holding Guerrero fits best for the course the Jays chose.Another excellent season from Guerrero is key in making their short-term improvement plan work. Few players ought to be as motivated as Guerrero to have an excellent season. For now, the Jays need him at his best - not elsewhere.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/30290483/related

With no Guerrero extension, the Blue Jays have to chart a new course

Back in 2016, Toronto Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro was asked about the worst baseball decisio...

Back in 2016, Toronto Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/mark-shapiro-learned-valuable-lesson-in-2001-c163378742">was asked</a> about the worst baseball decision he ever made. His answer took him back to 2001, his first year as general manager in Cleveland.His team at the time, like the Blue Jays now, was nearing the end of a competitive window, and he made a major trade shortly after taking over baseball operations, sending star second baseman Roberto Alomar to the Mets in an eight-player deal.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Shapiro said the problem was that he did not pick a direction. He tried to win and rebuild at the same time. The five-player return from the Mets included established major leaguer Matt Lawton and prospects headlined by Álex Escobar."Had we been more firmly committed in one direction - either contending or rebuilding - we would have made a trade that netted a better return," Shapiro said. "We learned from that experience and adjusted to make better trades."<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/636339/cropped_GettyImages-1482268906.jpg?ts=1739554515" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/636339/w220xh124_GettyImages-1482268906.jpg?ts=1739554515 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/636339/w320xh180_GettyImages-1482268906.jpg?ts=1739554515 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/636339/w640xh360_GettyImages-1482268906.jpg?ts=1739554515 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/636339/w768xh432_GettyImages-1482268906.jpg?ts=1739554515 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/636339/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1482268906.jpg?ts=1739554515 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mark Blinch / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>When the Blue Jays' full squad workouts begin Tuesday in Dunedin, Florida, the book will mostly be closed on the offseason (though some transactions trickle into March), meaning we can now assess the Blue Jays’ critical winter.At the very least, they committed to a direction. Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins learned from history. There was not one foot in a rebuilding bucket and the other in a win-now stance.If the leadership group was confident in its job security, it could have chosen to begin a rebuild and trade cornerstone players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. As painful and patience-testing as that path may be, one could argue it would be a healthier long-term plan. Baseball America ranks the Jays’ farm system 23rd in the sport.They chose a different path, of course. They chose to try to compete again in 2025.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744321/cropped_GettyImages-2155900199.jpg?ts=1739554935" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744321/w220xh124_GettyImages-2155900199.jpg?ts=1739554935 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744321/w320xh180_GettyImages-2155900199.jpg?ts=1739554935 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744321/w640xh360_GettyImages-2155900199.jpg?ts=1739554935 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744321/w768xh432_GettyImages-2155900199.jpg?ts=1739554935 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744321/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2155900199.jpg?ts=1739554935 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mark Blinch / Getty</figcaption></figure>How well did they execute the approach? Pretty well it turns out, even if they got off to a bumpy start.Plan A - securing an offseason prize like Juan Soto or Roki Sasaki - did not work out. But unlike a year ago, when the Blue Jays were snubbed by Shohei Ohtani, they were aggressive and creative about their Plan B. While they didn't land a secondary superstar, they did well in targeting and acquiring players in the tiers below the elites.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Blue Jays roster" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-Jv273" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Jv273/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="551" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure><h3>The bullpen</h3>The Blue Jays ranked 30th in the majors in bullpen fWAR (minus-2.5) last season and 29th in bullpen ERA (4.82). Only the Rockies posted a worse ERA from their relief group. The Jays also received 23 wins from relievers, more than only the lowly White Sox.Knowing all this, the Jays' offseason began by signing Yimi García, a quality reliever who they missed after he was traded to Seattle at the deadline for prospects Jonatan Clase and Jacob Sharp.The Jays later handed a multi-year contract to Jeff Hoffman, who was arguably the top right-handed reliever available in free agency.Assuming Hoffman's medicals are not a major issue - a big assumption as the Orioles and Braves reduced their offers to Hoffman after reviewing them - the Blue Jays have found a replacement for Jordan Romano, who missed much of last season because of injury. Hoffman's mix and command are of such quality that some teams were looking at him as a starting pitcher. He posted back-to-back seasons of sub-1.00 WHIP and an elite 27 K-BB% ratio last year.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764718/cropped_GettyImages-2168360365.jpg?ts=1739554682" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764718/w220xh124_GettyImages-2168360365.jpg?ts=1739554682 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764718/w320xh180_GettyImages-2168360365.jpg?ts=1739554682 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764718/w640xh360_GettyImages-2168360365.jpg?ts=1739554682 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764718/w768xh432_GettyImages-2168360365.jpg?ts=1739554682 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764718/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2168360365.jpg?ts=1739554682 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Drew Hallowell / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>García and Hoffman reinforce a bullpen that should also enjoy some internal improvement. Setup man Erik Swanson was much better in the second half of last season after the health of his son, who was hit by a car and in the ICU last spring training, was resolved. A return to form would be akin to another major addition.<h3>A platinum find</h3>While the Blue Jays didn't land Soto in free agency, they did add second baseman Andrés Giménez.Giménez is already an elite defensive player. He won the Platinum Glove in 2023 - awarded to the game's best overall defender regardless of position - and the American League Gold Glove at second base the last three seasons. He led all major leaguers in that span in defensive runs saved (59).<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770450/cropped_GettyImages-2177920278.jpg?ts=1739554649" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770450/w220xh124_GettyImages-2177920278.jpg?ts=1739554649 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770450/w320xh180_GettyImages-2177920278.jpg?ts=1739554649 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770450/w640xh360_GettyImages-2177920278.jpg?ts=1739554649 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770450/w768xh432_GettyImages-2177920278.jpg?ts=1739554649 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770450/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2177920278.jpg?ts=1739554649 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mary DeCicco / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Even with muted offensive production the last two seasons for Cleveland, he posted 3.8 and 2.8 fWAR, meaning he was well above average.But there's an offensive upside for Toronto if his bat returns to his 2022 level of performance (.297/.371/.466 with a 141 wRC+). That 6-WAR season earned him a lucrative contract extension (seven years, $106 million) from the Guardians.He can also move to shortstop, his natural position, if Bichette leaves in free agency next year.The budget-minded Guardians traded Giménez in part to free themselves of his contract and in part because they feared what a third straight down offensive season might mean for his trade value, a source explained. Cleveland also selected a college second baseman, Travis Bazzana, with the first overall pick in the draft in June. The franchise has a surplus of players who can be traded.The cost of the trade for the Jays - Spencer Horwitz and a player from Class A - is a win for Toronto. It swapped a platoon player for an up-the-middle everyday regular.<h3>Powering up</h3>Giménez was an opportunistic add, but Anthony Santander fit a need.In the previous two offseasons, the Blue Jays swapped bat-first players for glove-first players. The trade-off has not worked out.To succeed in the AL East and the postseason, teams need power. The Jays' recent run-differential trend is tied to a power outage.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Run differential by year" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-FPdhU" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/FPdhU/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="150" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740189/cropped_GettyImages-2165261024.jpg?ts=1739554712" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740189/w220xh124_GettyImages-2165261024.jpg?ts=1739554712 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740189/w320xh180_GettyImages-2165261024.jpg?ts=1739554712 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740189/w640xh360_GettyImages-2165261024.jpg?ts=1739554712 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740189/w768xh432_GettyImages-2165261024.jpg?ts=1739554712 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740189/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2165261024.jpg?ts=1739554712 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Cole Burston / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Home runs become even more important when a team is fortunate enough to reach the postseason. It's more difficult to string hits together as strikeouts and pitching quality increase.The Santander signing, which we proposed <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3064104" href="https://thescore.com/news/3064104">back in September</a>, fits the power need for the Blue Jays better than anyone who was available outside of Soto.Santander hit 44 home runs last season and is averaging 34 per year since his 2022 breakout. His wRC+ has been remarkably consistent - between 119 and 130 - since 2022. The projection systems believe he's good for another 30-plus homer season in 2025 and 120-130 wRC+.He's also one of the best hitters at pulling the ball in the air, a sticky skill that should help him remain a power source throughout his five-year contract. He trailed only Cleveland’s José Ramírez in pulled fly balls hit last season (258).While there are concerns about giving a one-dimensional slugger a long-term deal at $14 million per year, a portion of which is deferred, the contract won't become an extreme albatross even if Santander declines midway through the contract.<h3>Hidden value </h3>It might not seem like there's an upside regarding a 40-year-old pitcher who's coming off an injury-shortened 2024, but Max Scherzer is another year removed from back surgery, had a normal offseason, and impressed scouts at his workout last month.He wasn't at the peak of his powers when he was on the mound last year, but he remained an above-average pitcher on a per-inning basis (3.95 ERA and a 17 K-BB%). He even logged his best Command+ grade in five years.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/634158/cropped_GettyImages-2158908287.jpg?ts=1739554740" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/634158/w220xh124_GettyImages-2158908287.jpg?ts=1739554740 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/634158/w320xh180_GettyImages-2158908287.jpg?ts=1739554740 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/634158/w640xh360_GettyImages-2158908287.jpg?ts=1739554740 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/634158/w768xh432_GettyImages-2158908287.jpg?ts=1739554740 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/634158/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2158908287.jpg?ts=1739554740 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Richard Rodriguez / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Every team is searching for pitching depth, and the Jays need it with question marks beyond their top four starting pitchers. The average of the FanGraphs projections have Scherzer finishing as a 2.0 WAR pitcher in 2025, with a K-BB% approaching 20%, well above league average. If he hits that projection, the signing will prove to be a steal.<h3>Is it enough?</h3>Add all these player additions together and subtract the projected value of players shed from the roster this offseason, and the Blue Jays net an improvement of 8.2 wins above replacement for 2025, according to FanGraphs' Steamer projections.The pre-existing roster was projected to improve by 8.9 fWAR. Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, José Berríos, and Will Wagner account for the majority of that (5.0 fWAR).Combining those internal and external improvements, we arrive at an improvement of 17 wins compared to Toronto's 2024 finish. That would put the Jays at around 91 wins in 2025.Some projections won't be that bullish. PECOTA forecasts 84.6 wins for Toronto, good for third in the AL East and a game and a half behind Seattle for the final wild-card berth. Contending for a division title in the tough AL East will be difficult, but the Jays have improved enough to push for a wild card as Guerrero and Bichette head toward free agency in 2026.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/30251836/related

Assessing the Blue Jays' offseason plan and execution 

Only one hitter in major-league history with at least 95 career plate appearances at Fenway Park ...

Only one hitter in major-league history with at least 95 career plate appearances at Fenway Park owns a better on-base percentage there than Alex Bregman. That player: Ted Williams.There's no better ballpark fit for Bregman's combination of skills, which include elite contact rates and a pull-heavy batted-ball profile but weak underlying power (his bat speed ranked in the 41st percentile last season).<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Boston may be even more welcoming than the Crawford Boxes were to Bregman during his nine years in Houston. His swing and approach were made to pepper the 37-foot Green Monster - he owns a career .375/.490/.750 triple slash at Fenway.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Monster tamers" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-JM36k" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/JM36k/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="467" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure>Bregman was the last star-level free agent to sign when he agreed to a three-year, $120-million deal with the Red Sox on Wednesday. It includes opt-outs after each season. It also features "significant" deferrals, according to ESPN's Buster Olney, which reduces its luxury tax and real dollar value.The deal's implications are far reaching.In addition to Fenway being a great fit, Bregman slots ideally into Boston's lineup, which needed more right-handed balance.Signing Bregman, who turns 31 at the start of the regular season, also adds a player with plenty of playoff experience to a young, emerging lineup, and keeps him away from other AL contenders like Detroit and Houston, which offered him more years and dollars, which reduced the average annual value.Bregman could slot in at second base, where initial reports pegged him, or he could play third base, where he's excellent, pushing franchise cornerstone Rafael Devers to DH.Bregman makes Boston's ascending young lineup deeper, stronger, and more versatile. This could cap a productive offseason for the Red Sox, who look very much like a playoff contender and a threat to capture the AL East.The Red Sox may have landed their new Chris Sale in Garrett Crochet - another lefty ace acquired from the White Sox via trade - and added Walker Buehler to their rotation, too. They also added Aroldis Chapman to the late-inning mix, although the bullpen could benefit from one more arm.Of course, Bregman isn't without flaws and there are reasons he lingered on the market into February.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/754065/cropped_GettyImages-2174064408.jpg?ts=1738934241" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/754065/w220xh124_GettyImages-2174064408.jpg?ts=1738934241 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/754065/w320xh180_GettyImages-2174064408.jpg?ts=1738934241 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/754065/w640xh360_GettyImages-2174064408.jpg?ts=1738934241 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/754065/w768xh432_GettyImages-2174064408.jpg?ts=1738934241 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/754065/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2174064408.jpg?ts=1738934241 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Tim Warner / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>He's always exhibited elite swing-decision skills, but Bregman's walk rate collapsed in 2024 (12.7% in 2023 vs. 6.9% last year).Pitchers challenged Bregman in the zone more often, throwing 53.6% of their pitches within the strike zone to him last year compared to 49.9% in 2023. The increase was the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/season-stat-grid?position=B&amp;seasonStart=2023&amp;seasonEnd=2024&amp;stat=Zone%25&amp;pastMinPt=400&amp;curMinPt=400&amp;mode=difference">eighth largest</a> in the sport. He posted a .315 on-base percentage mark last year, his worst since his debut season and well off his career .366 mark. His on-base percentage collapse could be permanent if he continues to chase more often.For whatever reason, pitchers were less afraid of Bregman doing damage on their in-the-zone pitches even though his average and max exit velocities were stable. He still pulled the ball in the air as much as ever, producing the fifth-most pulled fly balls in the majors (226).Perhaps pitchers see some weakness against velocity since Bregman's expected wOBA against fastballs fell to a <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=FF%7CSI%7C&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfGT=R%7C&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;hfStadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfPull=&amp;hfC=&amp;hfSea=2024%7C2023%7C2022%7C2021%7C2020%7C2019%7C2018%7C2017%7C2016%7C2015%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=batter&amp;hfOuts=&amp;hfOpponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;hfMo=&amp;hfTeam=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfRO=&amp;position=&amp;hfInfield=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfInn=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;batters_lookup%5B%5D=608324&amp;hfFlag=&amp;metric_1=&amp;group_by=name-year&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;min_pas=0&amp;sort_col=xwoba&amp;player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;chk_stats_abs=on&amp;chk_stats_hits=on&amp;chk_stats_ba=on&amp;chk_stats_xwoba=on#results">career-worst .336 mark</a>, 21 points below his rookie season.Bregman also had his most frequent out-of-zone swing rate since his rookie year, and his year-over-year chase-rate increase of 4.3 percentage points was the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/season-stat-grid?position=B&amp;seasonStart=2023&amp;seasonEnd=2024&amp;stat=O-Swing%25&amp;pastMinPt=400&amp;curMinPt=400&amp;mode=difference">ninth biggest</a> in MLB.Despite those hitting declines, he was still a 4.1 fWAR player last year, his sixth season above that mark. He won his first Gold Glove at third base and also ranked as an above-average third baseman with six defensive runs saved (tied for fifth in the majors with Nolan Arenado and José Ramírez).<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/477722/cropped_GettyImages-1347578904.jpg?ts=1739472118" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/477722/w220xh124_GettyImages-1347578904.jpg?ts=1739472118 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/477722/w320xh180_GettyImages-1347578904.jpg?ts=1739472118 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/477722/w640xh360_GettyImages-1347578904.jpg?ts=1739472118 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/477722/w768xh432_GettyImages-1347578904.jpg?ts=1739472118 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/477722/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1347578904.jpg?ts=1739472118 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Elsa / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Although Devers is a weak defensive third baseman (minus-9 DRS last season), initial reports say he'll remain there while Bregman will move to second, where he's only played 32 career innings and none since 2018.At second base, Bregman blocks a pathway to playing time for consensus top-five overall prospect Kristian Campbell, who some evaluators believe is talented enough to break camp with the club.Several projections at FanGraphs forecast Campbell, 23, to be on par with Bregman offensively this season.If the Red Sox don't want to move Devers off third base, despite young players like Campbell, Vaughn Grissom, or David Hamilton ready to contribute at second base, one could argue they'd have been better off using these free-agent dollars elsewhere.On the other hand, the Red Sox can now more easily trade from their position-player depth, and can allow a prospect like Campbell extra minor-league seasoning. It's also not often you get a chance to add baseball's 18th-best position player by fWAR since 2022 in free agency in February. Depth chart concerns typically find a way of working themselves out, and creating a super-utility role for, say, Ceddanne Rafaela could be beneficial in freeing up an outfield role for Campbell or fellow super prospect Roman Anthony. Boston can also trade from surplus to improve weaknesses elsewhere.Bregman's signing simply makes the Red Sox a better team, and it signals they're ready to return to relevance.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/30234602/related

Alex Bregman's ripple effect in Boston

Pitchers and catchers report to camps next week and with nearly all of the top free agents signed...

Pitchers and catchers report to camps next week and with nearly all of the top free agents signed and the most significant trades completed, we can begin to truly assess the offseason.We know who the winners are.The Mets landed the winter's top prize in Juan Soto and reunited with Pete Alonso.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>The Dodgers seemed to sign basically everyone else, including pitching phenom Roki Sasaki.The Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees spent more on free agents than the other 27 MLB teams combined.This growing spending divide created much angst this winter. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said this week <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3211552" href="https://thescore.com/news/3211552">he's received</a> emails from fans concerned about the sport's lack of a salary cap, and it's an issue he said has his attention."The Dodgers are a really well-run, successful organization," Manfred said. "Everything they do and have done is consistent with our rules. They're trying to give their fans the best possible product. Those are all positives. I recognize, however - and my emails certainly reflect that - there are fans in other markets who are concerned about their team's ability to compete. And we always have to be concerned when our fans are concerned about something. But pinning it on the Dodgers, I'm not in that camp."<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758704/cropped_GettyImages-2181245476.jpg?ts=1733266725" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758704/w220xh124_GettyImages-2181245476.jpg?ts=1733266725 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758704/w320xh180_GettyImages-2181245476.jpg?ts=1733266725 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758704/w640xh360_GettyImages-2181245476.jpg?ts=1733266725 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758704/w768xh432_GettyImages-2181245476.jpg?ts=1733266725 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758704/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2181245476.jpg?ts=1733266725 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>MLB owners will likely once again pursue a salary cap after the current CBA expires following the 2026 season, like they did briefly in the last negotiation.While star players recoil at the thought of a cap, an accompanying salary floor would certainly make the offseason more interesting for more fans while boosting the market for mid- and lower-tier free agents.The problem, ultimately, is there are few winners and too many losers in the MLB offseason. That's why Manfred's inbox is filling up.With that in mind, who are the most disappointing teams and players from this winter? We rank the offseason's 10 biggest losers:<h3>No. 10: Alex Bregman</h3>Bregman's the last star free agent available, and he may have overestimated his market. No team to date is biting on his lengthy contract demands.While Bregman's resume is excellent, his walk rate collapsed last season, which is a red flag for someone whose excellent swing decisions are one of his strengths.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/753699/cropped_GettyImages-2165177052.jpg?ts=1738951092" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/753699/w220xh124_GettyImages-2165177052.jpg?ts=1738951092 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/753699/w320xh180_GettyImages-2165177052.jpg?ts=1738951092 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/753699/w640xh360_GettyImages-2165177052.jpg?ts=1738951092 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/753699/w768xh432_GettyImages-2165177052.jpg?ts=1738951092 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/753699/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2165177052.jpg?ts=1738951092 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Michael Zagaris / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>His middling underlying swing data (41st percentile bat speed) and raw power make him sensitive to his home ballpark environment. Taking him away from Houston's Crawford Boxes could be problematic for his power output. Bregman may have to follow Alonso and bet on himself on a shorter-term deal.<h3>9: Chicago Cubs</h3>Yes, they added star Kyle Tucker via trade, but he's likely a one-year rental, and they also traded away Cody Bellinger. They've acted like a budget-minded team at a time when using their financial might could put them over the top in a weak NL Central.Acquiring a declining bullpen arm in Ryan Pressly is a questionable use of their apparently limited resources. While starter Matthew Boyd was great for Cleveland in last year's second half, he has major durability issues.The Cubs should have done more to widen the gap between FanGraphs' <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings">projected win totals</a>. As it stands, their NL Central-best projection of 84 wins is only six more than last-place Cincinnati.<h3>8: Baltimore Orioles</h3>While the Orioles have been active, they signed only one player to a multi-year deal (Tyler O'Neill). Most notably, they lost staff ace Corbin Burnes to free agency and haven't replaced him. A rotation of Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, and Tomoyuki Sugano isn't likely to lead a team to the World Series, let alone an AL East crown. One caveat here: Baltimore has the prospect capital to make a significant trade for a starter like it did a year ago with Burnes. The O's may not be done.<h3>7: Nick Pivetta</h3><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/622621/cropped_GettyImages-2115808767.jpg?ts=1738952142" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/622621/w220xh124_GettyImages-2115808767.jpg?ts=1738952142 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/622621/w320xh180_GettyImages-2115808767.jpg?ts=1738952142 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/622621/w640xh360_GettyImages-2115808767.jpg?ts=1738952142 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/622621/w768xh432_GettyImages-2115808767.jpg?ts=1738952142 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/622621/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2115808767.jpg?ts=1738952142 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Pivetta's one of the top bat-missing arms in the class with some of the best stuff grades in the game. He was plagued by home runs with Boston and will benefit by moving out of Fenway Park. However, he's still waiting for his market to develop because he's attached to draft-pick compensation after turning down his qualifying offer.<h3>6: San Diego Padres</h3>The Padres were up 2-1 on the Dodgers in last year's NLDS and that's beginning to feel like San Diego's high-water mark.The late Peter Seidler was willing to spend like a large-market club, but his death resulted in a "Succession"-like <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3183656" href="https://thescore.com/news/3183656">power struggle</a> for the club <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3211415" href="https://thescore.com/news/3211415">among the family</a> and spending's been curbed. The loss of their $2-billion local cable deal isn't helping. Already featuring a top-heavy roster, the club's reportedly looking to shed salary and is open to trading top pitchers Dylan Cease and Michael King.What was one of baseball's best stories - a traditionally small-payroll team rising up to challenge the Dodgers - appears to be fizzling out.<h3>5: Cleveland Guardians</h3>The budget-minded Guardians traded former Platinum Glove second baseman Andrés Giménez and cleanup hitter Josh Naylor after advancing to the ALCS. While Cleveland enjoys a strong farm system and draft-and-development program, it's difficult to see how it improves in 2025. José Ramírez only has so many prime years remaining.<h3>4: Minnesota Twins</h3>Like the Padres, the Twins lost their cable deal and are in an ownership transition period with the club for sale. That's meant little investment into the MLB roster at a time when money could make a difference in a weak AL Central.FanGraphs projects a tight band of mediocrity atop the division: the Twins are forecast for an AL Central-best 83 wins, followed by the Tigers (82) and Royals (81). Minnesota's spent only $9 million in free agency to date when any added win would be a big deal.<h3>3: Free agency's middle class</h3>For as much as players don't want to entertain the idea of a salary cap (certainly true for star players and MLBPA officials), very few players benefit from the current cap-less system.Few players reach free agency, and those who do are often disappointed by what they find. Many wait around for one-year deals as spring training approaches.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/588858/cropped_GettyImages-1486661147.jpg?ts=1738952247" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/588858/w220xh124_GettyImages-1486661147.jpg?ts=1738952247 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/588858/w320xh180_GettyImages-1486661147.jpg?ts=1738952247 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/588858/w640xh360_GettyImages-1486661147.jpg?ts=1738952247 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/588858/w768xh432_GettyImages-1486661147.jpg?ts=1738952247 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/588858/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1486661147.jpg?ts=1738952247 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Jim McIsaac / Getty Images Sport / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>As of Friday, only 83 of 174 available free agents had signed major-league contracts, while another 11 agreed to minor-league deals, according to Cot's Baseball. Only about 60% of free agents in recent years signed major-league deals, and the vast majority of them (66 of 83) were for one or two years.MLB features the lowest median salary among the four major North American sports, and no sport leans on minimum-salaried players as much. And we've seen again this winter: it's not a great time to be a mid- or lower-tier free agent.<h3>2: Seattle Mariners</h3>The Mariners have one of the great advantages in the game: a young, elite, cost-controlled pitching staff featuring George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo.But the lineup leaves much to be desired. The Mariners only had three position players with 400 or more plate appearances who recorded an OPS above .700 last season. They ranked 21st in runs scored and added only journeymen Jorge Polanco and Donovan Solano to one-year contracts this winter.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/591040/cropped_GettyImages-1494466305.jpg?ts=1738952204" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/591040/w220xh124_GettyImages-1494466305.jpg?ts=1738952204 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/591040/w320xh180_GettyImages-1494466305.jpg?ts=1738952204 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/591040/w640xh360_GettyImages-1494466305.jpg?ts=1738952204 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/591040/w768xh432_GettyImages-1494466305.jpg?ts=1738952204 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/591040/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1494466305.jpg?ts=1738952204 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Stephen Brashear / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Seattle's the equivalent of an NFL team with a star quarterback on a rookie contract (its young staff), but instead of aggressively improving the roster, it remains mostly idle.Of course, NFL teams have salary floors to reach and nothing like that exists in MLB.<h3>1: Pittsburgh Pirates</h3>The Pirates are the offseason's biggest loser and it comes down to this: the clock's ticking on their control over Paul Skenes.Skenes is a gift, a golden ticket won in the draft lottery, and they're wasting it.The Pirates lost a year of team control over Skenes by rule after the season because he was named a Cy Young Award finalist. That ought to have increased their urgency to improve a lineup that ranked 24th in run scoring last year, but: nope. <figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/769407/cropped_GettyImages-2195402184.jpg?ts=1738950854" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/769407/w220xh124_GettyImages-2195402184.jpg?ts=1738950854 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/769407/w320xh180_GettyImages-2195402184.jpg?ts=1738950854 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/769407/w640xh360_GettyImages-2195402184.jpg?ts=1738950854 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/769407/w768xh432_GettyImages-2195402184.jpg?ts=1738950854 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/769407/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2195402184.jpg?ts=1738950854 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mary DeCicco / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The Pirates swapped rotation depth (Luis Ortiz) to add infielder Spencer Horwitz, and while Horwitz is a promising young hitter, he's likely limited to a platoon role and lacks game-changing power.Pittsburgh also re-signed Andrew McCutchen, who's far removed from his MVP heights. It also added 37-year-old Tommy Pham, and Adam Frazier, who was 34% worse than a league-average hitter last year.And it's not only Skenes' arm being wasted. The rotation also features Jared Jones and Mitch Keller, and top prospect Bubba Chandler should be up early this season. This is a rare staff to build upon for a team that hasn't won a playoff series since 1979 and that has one wild-card game win to show for this century. Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/30162301/related

10 players and teams that had the worst offseason

Late winter is a time for optimism, as pitchers and catchers approach their reporting dates and p...

Late winter is a time for optimism, as pitchers and catchers approach their reporting dates and preseason player projections are published.theScore reviewed several player forecasts this winter, examining the underlying skills and metrics. Who are some standouts we expect to overachieve? Who are some players we expect to fall short?Here are the cases that stood out.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><h2>Who could underperform?</h2><h3>Ronald Acuña Jr.</h3>Projection systems are bullish on the Atlanta Braves star in his return from a second ACL tear in four seasons, this time to his left knee.<a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=fangraphsdc&amp;stats=bat&amp;pos=all&amp;team=0&amp;players=0&amp;lg=all&amp;z=1738726806&amp;pageitems=30&amp;statgroup=dashboard&amp;fantasypreset=dashboard">FanGraphs</a> projections foresee a 5.0 WAR season, on average, and wRC+ forecasts range between 138-159, which is in line with his career 141 wRC+ mark.Acuña is expected to return early in the season and is already exciting the baseball social media world by sharing videos of himself smashing baseballs.But I can't help thinking about conversations I had with the Braves and Acuña <a href="https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2641627/acunas-mvp-form-three-teams-already-in-trouble-and-5-more-observations">prior to the</a> 2023 season. He was coming off a disappointing 2022 campaign in which he hit just 15 home runs after his first torn ACL.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743972/cropped_GettyImages-2154359764.jpg?ts=1738793432" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743972/w220xh124_GettyImages-2154359764.jpg?ts=1738793432 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743972/w320xh180_GettyImages-2154359764.jpg?ts=1738793432 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743972/w640xh360_GettyImages-2154359764.jpg?ts=1738793432 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743972/w768xh432_GettyImages-2154359764.jpg?ts=1738793432 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743972/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2154359764.jpg?ts=1738793432 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Michael Reaves / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>"I'd say the only difference is last year (2022), I had to battle with some pain in the knee," Acuña said via an interpreter. "It comes with recovering from that type of injury. Just being able to practice and train at 100%, without any restrictions, was (important)."Nearly all his underlying batted-ball quality metrics declined in 2022 before rebounding in 2023 when he won the National League MVP award.Then-Braves hitting coach Kevin Seitzer said Acuña's power was off because his lower body wasn't at 100% in 2022. Could we expect the same in 2025?"His power, his hand speed, comes from his lower half," Seitzer said back then. "And it was his right knee, so he did not have that explosive backside that he's had that made him Ronald Acuña."Acuña is currently rehabbing an ACL tear to the plant leg of his swing, not the drive leg. That could help him rebound more quickly. But to 100%?We generally expect too much from players coming off major injuries. Acuña will almost certainly return to his MVP-level form, but his personal history suggests that's more likely to happen in 2026 than in 2025.<h3>Roki Sasaki</h3>FanGraphs projection systems tend to produce similar forecasts because they employ similar processes. They generally compare players to those in baseball history at similar ages, with similar skills and production to that point.However, there's a great disagreement among the projection systems for Sasaki in 2025.The Steamer system at FanGraphs has Sasaki immediately performing as one of baseball's best pitchers with 11.6 strikeouts per nine, 2.8 walks, and a 3.29 ERA over 139 innings.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765963/cropped_GettyImages-1474925726.jpg?ts=1737494033" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765963/w220xh124_GettyImages-1474925726.jpg?ts=1737494033 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765963/w320xh180_GettyImages-1474925726.jpg?ts=1737494033 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765963/w640xh360_GettyImages-1474925726.jpg?ts=1737494033 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765963/w768xh432_GettyImages-1474925726.jpg?ts=1737494033 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765963/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1474925726.jpg?ts=1737494033 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Eric Espada / Getty Images</figcaption></figure><a href="https://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml">Clay Davenport's system</a>, which is familiar with extrapolating foreign league performance to the majors, calls for 155 innings and a 2.97 ERA.Then there are two extremely bearish <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/roki-sasaki/sa3025686/stats?position=P">forecasts</a> at FanGraphs from OOPSY (eight strikeouts per nine, 5.55 ERA) and ZiPS (4.88 ERA on 97 innings).Human evaluators are uniform in their praise of Sasaki's skill set, but there are concerns about the health of his arm. He's had numerous minor injuries, and Sasaki recently revealed that <a href="https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/headlines/roki-sasaki-news-previously-contemplated-tommy-john-949173">he contemplated</a> having Tommy John surgery earlier in his career with the Chiba Lotte Marines.His fastball velocity fell from 98 mph in 2023 to 96.9 last season, and his strikeout rate dipped from 39.1% to 28.7% (although his innings improved to 111 from 91).Some of the trouble with projecting Sasaki for immediate elite, Cy Young-level performance is volume. All the projections figure him for about 24 starts, but his innings range from 97 to 139. The Dodgers - always careful in managing workloads - figure to limit his workload in 2025.Even if his per-inning performance is elite, his counting numbers might not be. Moreover, it's also tough to forecast how an NPB pitcher will immediately adapt to the differences in the game and culture.The variance in projections suggests plenty of performance risk in 2025, and we know the volume will likely be depressed. Sasaki will probably be a front-line ace eventually, but that's a better bet for 2026 and beyond.<h3>Matt Olson</h3>Only Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber have homered more than Olson since his first full season in 2018. He's been one of the game's premier sluggers and has capably filled Freddie Freeman's shoes in Atlanta.Most projections believe Olson will rebound after he followed up a career-high 54 homers (161 wRC+) in 2023 with 29 (117 wRC+) in 2024. The <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/matt-olson/14344/stats?position=1B">average</a> at FanGraphs calls for 34 homers and a 126 wRC+.But there's a troubling trend developing with Olson, who's entering his age-31 season.He <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfGT=R%7C&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;hfStadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfPull=&amp;hfC=&amp;hfSea=2023%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=batter&amp;hfOuts=&amp;hfOpponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=2023-03-01&amp;game_date_lt=2023-06-30&amp;hfMo=&amp;hfTeam=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfRO=&amp;position=&amp;hfInfield=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfInn=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;batters_lookup%5B%5D=621566&amp;hfFlag=is%5C.%5C.remove%5C.%5C.bunts%7C&amp;metric_1=&amp;group_by=name&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;min_pas=0&amp;sort_col=launch_speed&amp;player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;chk_stats_launch_speed=on#results">averaged</a> a 94.4-mph exit velocity in the first half of 2023, with a maximum of 118.6 mph April 11.That fell off to a 93.1-mph average in the second half, with a 113.1 maximum.He saw even further decline in the first half of last season, averaging 92.9 mph (113.9 mph max). Olson then averaged just 91.7 mph in the second half, with a 111.9 max.Exit velocity isn't everything, but it's a key in determining power. It also declines with age.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/582701/cropped_GettyImages-1259572787.jpg?ts=1738793407" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/582701/w220xh124_GettyImages-1259572787.jpg?ts=1738793407 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/582701/w320xh180_GettyImages-1259572787.jpg?ts=1738793407 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/582701/w640xh360_GettyImages-1259572787.jpg?ts=1738793407 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/582701/w768xh432_GettyImages-1259572787.jpg?ts=1738793407 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/582701/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1259572787.jpg?ts=1738793407 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Todd Kirkland / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Olson shouldn't be in steep decline yet, but he's entering the age range when talent begins to descend.Anthony Rizzo had a similar exit-velocity decline two years ago, and it remained depressed last season. His wRC+ fell from 131 in his age-32 campaign in 2022, to 97 in 2023, to 84 last season.It seems possible Olson's best baseball is behind him.<h3>Cody Bellinger</h3>New York looks like a great spot for Bellinger. Yankee Stadium is a dream ballpark for left-handed pull hitters like him, as he ranked eighth out of 550 batters last season in the number of pulled fly balls. But let's consider his skills.Among batters who took at least 100 swings last season, Bellinger had the sixth-biggest decline in Statcast's bat speed measurement from the first half to the second, falling well below the MLB average (68 mph).His maximum exit velocity dropped 3.9 mph to 105 mph in the second half, the 11th-biggest decline. He hit the ball as weakly as Steven Kwan and Nico Hoerner.It's possible Bellinger was trying to trade power to increase contact. But hitting increasingly weak fly balls in the air doesn't pay. His exit velocities have tumbled since his outlier 2019 MVP campaign, and 2024 marked a new low for batted-ball quality.Bellinger's overall production has nowhere to go but down if his underlying skills continue to decline.Yankee Stadium can mask his deficiencies in the short term, but this is a player teetering near a performance cliff. <h2>Who could overperform?</h2><h3>Jacob deGrom</h3>Calling for a pitcher who hasn't surpassed 100 innings since 2019 to exceed expectations seems highly contrary.Despite averaging just 53 innings over the last five years, FanGraphs forecasts have deGrom averaging 111 this season across a range from 51 to 152. Davenport's forecast has him at 120 innings.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744545/cropped_GettyImages-1256901292.jpg?ts=1738793486" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744545/w220xh124_GettyImages-1256901292.jpg?ts=1738793486 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744545/w320xh180_GettyImages-1256901292.jpg?ts=1738793486 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744545/w640xh360_GettyImages-1256901292.jpg?ts=1738793486 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744545/w768xh432_GettyImages-1256901292.jpg?ts=1738793486 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744545/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1256901292.jpg?ts=1738793486 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Ben Ludeman/Texas Rangers / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Like Sasaki, deGrom is one of the most polarizing players for 2025, according to both computer and human evaluators.But I am bullish on deGrom for 2025. Why? Because his elbow wasn't quite right for years. He pitched through multiple elbow-related maladies and finally had a second Tommy John procedure in June 2023.He's now in what some refer to as the Tommy John honeymoon period. Pitchers' elbows are generally not at severe risk for re-injury for multiple years following the surgery. He'll be nearly two years removed from the surgery on Opening Day. When deGrom returned last September, he looked very much like himself. He struck out 14 and walked just one in 10 2/3 innings, averaging 98 mph with his fastball.After his first Tommy John surgery in 2010, deGrom reached the majors, averaged 184 innings during the first six years of his career, and won two NL Cy Young Awards.No one is expecting another run like that, but deGrom with a healthy, reconstructed elbow might remind us how great he is and tip the balance of power in the AL West.<h3>Oneil Cruz</h3>There's no greater <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3067211" href="https://thescore.com/news/3067211">player development project </a>than Cruz.He's the ultimate package of physical tools. His raw power is rivaled only by Ohtani, Aaron Judge, and Stanton, his throwing arm equals Elly De La Cruz's, and his sprint speed compares to some of the game's fastest players.There are tools, but then there's using them to their full potential.Cruz has been a frustratingly uneven performer over his first 244 games in the majors.He was so inconsistent at shortstop last season that the club moved him to center field, a position he'd never played as a professional.Easing his defensive burden a bit may have helped unlock the growth he enjoyed at the plate in the second half of the campaign.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743783/cropped_GettyImages-2166924151.jpg?ts=1738793521" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743783/w220xh124_GettyImages-2166924151.jpg?ts=1738793521 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743783/w320xh180_GettyImages-2166924151.jpg?ts=1738793521 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743783/w640xh360_GettyImages-2166924151.jpg?ts=1738793521 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743783/w768xh432_GettyImages-2166924151.jpg?ts=1738793521 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743783/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2166924151.jpg?ts=1738793521 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Tim Heitman / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Cruz slashed .277/.357/.464 in the second half with a 125 wRC+. He cut his strikeout rate to 27% from the low 30s, where it'd hovered for his career. Only Stanton swung his bat faster, on average, than Cruz (78.9 mph average).In fact, Cruz gained nearly 1 mph of bat speed in the second half. Getting further removed from the ankle surgery that cost him most of the 2023 season may have also played a role. Cruz stole 15 bases in the second half without being caught as well. There's a 30-30 ceiling here.Plus, Cruz slashed .328/.370/.630 against lefties in the second half after being at risk of becoming a platoon player due to his struggles against them early in his career.Projections are skeptical Cruz will become a superstar in 2025, but projections, by nature, don't call for extreme breakouts. Paul Skenes needs another superstar to emerge in Pittsburgh. Here's a bet that'll be Cruz.<h3>Spencer Schwellenbach</h3>Just a few years after Spencer Strider materialized from nowhere to become a top-of-the-rotation force, another unheralded Spencer arrived last year to fortify the Braves' rotation.The average K-BB% rate was 14.4% last season. Schwellenbach's 23 <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=y&amp;season=2024&amp;season1=2024&amp;ind=0&amp;type=1&amp;month=31&amp;stats=sta&amp;sortcol=8&amp;sortdir=default&amp;pagenum=1">K-BB% mark</a> in the second half ranked ninth among qualifying starting pitchers and was up six percentage points from the first half of his rookie season.There's a fairly strong relationship between second-half performance and next-season production for pitchers, more so than for batters. We should pay attention to late-season pitching breakouts.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747761/cropped_GettyImages-2175025291.jpg?ts=1738793546" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747761/w220xh124_GettyImages-2175025291.jpg?ts=1738793546 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747761/w320xh180_GettyImages-2175025291.jpg?ts=1738793546 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747761/w640xh360_GettyImages-2175025291.jpg?ts=1738793546 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747761/w768xh432_GettyImages-2175025291.jpg?ts=1738793546 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747761/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2175025291.jpg?ts=1738793546 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Icon Sportswire / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The 2021 second-rounder out of Nebraska has been a strike-thrower throughout his career, he owns above-average velocity, and, most of all, he enjoys a varied pitch arsenal. Schwellenbach throws six pitches, and five of them graded as above average last season. He keeps batters guessing by throwing five of his pitches at least 13% of the time (topping out with his four-seam fastball at 29%).The righty also built up volume last year, throwing 167 innings between the minors and majors. With health, Schwellenbach has the skills and volume to finish in the top 10 in NL Cy Young voting.<h3>Max Scherzer</h3>It might seem odd to see a 40-year-old pitcher coming off an injury-plagued season here, but expectations are so muted for Scherzer that he seems like a good bet to beat them.Scherzer should be stronger and healthier another year removed from back surgery. Reports from his scouting pro day were encouraging before the Blue Jays signed him.Even in his disappointing 2024 season, he was still an above-average pitcher on a per-inning basis (3.95 ERA and a 17 K-BB%). He posted his best Command+ grade in five years.Projections have Scherzer finishing as a 2.0 WAR pitcher in 2025, with a K-BB% approaching 20% - well above average. He's unlikely to return to ace form, but perhaps the Blue Jays landed a quality No. 3 option on a reasonable one-year deal.The history of great pitchers suggests Scherzer should have another year or two of gas left in the tank. For Toronto, it's worth paying for to find out.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/30136256/related

Boom or bust: Players who could exceed or fall short of expectations

It isn't a plague conspicuous enough to generate headlines or raise much alarm, but its constant ...

It isn't a plague conspicuous enough to generate headlines or raise much alarm, but its constant drip affects areas of the game that concern MLB officials: pace of play, the number of balls in play, and pitchers' health.The issue? Foul balls and their ever-increasing numbers.Throughout baseball history (at least since pitch-level data began to be recorded in 1988), balls hit in play outnumbered foul balls - until 2017.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>The trend of more balls being hit out of play than within the white lines has continued every year since, with an increasing spread after they first crossed seven seasons ago.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="[ Insert title here ]" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-36uVd" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/36uVd/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="455" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure>Overall, foul balls comprise nearly one-fifth of all pitches thrown, advancing from 16.3% in 1998 to 18.3% last season.There were 129,954 foul balls hit last season in total, trailing only 2019 (which had the most total pitches thrown on record because of the elevated run-scoring environment).For context, there were more than 15,000 additional foul balls last season than in 1998, the first year there were 30 MLB teams. That's a 14% rise in foul balls even though total pitches thrown has only grown by 1.6%. <figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/370055/cropped_GettyImages-1161096828.jpg?ts=1737571586" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/370055/w220xh124_GettyImages-1161096828.jpg?ts=1737571586 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/370055/w320xh180_GettyImages-1161096828.jpg?ts=1737571586 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/370055/w640xh360_GettyImages-1161096828.jpg?ts=1737571586 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/370055/w768xh432_GettyImages-1161096828.jpg?ts=1737571586 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/370055/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1161096828.jpg?ts=1737571586 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Cole Burston / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>One positive: a lot more souvenirs for fans.But there's also more wasted time when pace of play is a focus of the league office.In 1998, 41.6% of all strikes were whiffs and fouls. That combined percentage didn't exceed 42% until 2008. Last season, fouls and whiffs combined for 47.3% of all strikes.Because foul balls can't count as third strikes, they contribute to more exertion from pitchers at a time when their elbows and shoulders are already struggling to remain intact.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/386018/cropped_GettyImages-1158946797.jpg?ts=1737571560" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/386018/w220xh124_GettyImages-1158946797.jpg?ts=1737571560 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/386018/w320xh180_GettyImages-1158946797.jpg?ts=1737571560 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/386018/w640xh360_GettyImages-1158946797.jpg?ts=1737571560 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/386018/w768xh432_GettyImages-1158946797.jpg?ts=1737571560 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/386018/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1158946797.jpg?ts=1737571560 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Scott Taetsch / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Pitchers are throwing near max effort more than ever, as theScore <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/2896907" href="https://thescore.com/news/2896907">studied</a>, and now they're forced to throw more wasted pitches.For a pitcher like Ross Stripling, foul balls test him in multiple ways."I think about (extended plate appearances) all the time," Stripling says. "For me, as a guy who doesn't generate a lot of swing and miss, I'm usually featuring my best stuff from the start. I'll throw my two-strike curveball to the leadoff hitter in the first inning if I have to. I'm not in the business of saving my best pitch until the third time through like some guys do."So, if I'm facing, let's say, Juan Soto, and I threw him my kitchen sink in the first at-bat, and he has a 10- or 11-pitch plate appearance and has fouled off my best cutter, my best changeup, and he spit on a curveball in the dirt, his second time at bat I'm already like: 'Shit.'Stripling added: "Other guys might have a different mentality as far as, 'This guy's annoying. My pitch count's getting higher.' Mine is more, 'I've thrown this guy my best bullets, and I didn't get him out. Inevitably, when I face him a second and third time, he's seen my best stuff. And that's not an advantage for me.'"Chicago Cubs pitcher Jameson Taillon says he tries not to let long at-bats fueled by foul balls bother him. But one game sticks out in his memory: Aug. 27, 2017, against Cincinnati. He specifically recalls three plate appearances against Joey Votto.Taillon got ahead of Votto in all three meetings that day. But the result of those confrontations was three walks, 31 pitches, and 15 foul balls.<ul>
<li>Plate appearance No. 1: 11 pitches, six fouls</li>
<li>No. 2: 11 pitches, six fouls</li>
<li>No. 3: nine pitches, three fouls</li>
</ul><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/583816/cropped_GettyImages-1523626013.jpg?ts=1737572895" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/583816/w220xh124_GettyImages-1523626013.jpg?ts=1737572895 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/583816/w320xh180_GettyImages-1523626013.jpg?ts=1737572895 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/583816/w640xh360_GettyImages-1523626013.jpg?ts=1737572895 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/583816/w768xh432_GettyImages-1523626013.jpg?ts=1737572895 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/583816/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1523626013.jpg?ts=1737572895 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Dustin Satloff / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>"That ruined my day," Taillon says. "That was the art of intentionally fouling pitches off. He was 100% (doing that). He was taking pitches out of the catcher's glove. Sometimes the hitter will do it on purpose if they're not seeing the ball well. Fight. Stay alive. Then there are other times you take your chances with some bigger swings."He allowed one earned run on the day but lasted only four innings (plus two batters in the fifth) because Votto kept spoiling pitches. Votto was Taillon's last batter after 111 pitches thrown.Taillon said he often speaks with position-player teammates during games to understand their thoughts about when they might be intentionally trying to spoil a pitch or are simply struggling to square a pitcher up."Those conversations still do happen where hitters are like, 'I'm just trying to protect and foul off anything that is down and away because he does that so well,'" Taillon says. "There's that, and then the quality of stuff is so good it's hard to be perfectly on time."Regularly spoiling pitches is a skill, and some batters are better at it than others. But the primary reason for the rise in fouls is likely the quality of stuff pitchers throw.Pitching velocity reaches record levels each year, and more arms enter each season with new designer breaking balls and off-speed pitches.Pitchers' added velocity and spin are correlated with the rise in days on the IL.In MLB's <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3161794" href="https://thescore.com/news/3161794">first comprehensive report</a> on the pitching injury epidemic released in December, experts stated that rule changes were the only way they saw to reverse the injury trend.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764711/cropped_GettyImages-2181950942.jpg?ts=1737571462" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764711/w220xh124_GettyImages-2181950942.jpg?ts=1737571462 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764711/w320xh180_GettyImages-2181950942.jpg?ts=1737571462 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764711/w640xh360_GettyImages-2181950942.jpg?ts=1737571462 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764711/w768xh432_GettyImages-2181950942.jpg?ts=1737571462 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764711/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2181950942.jpg?ts=1737571462 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Al Bello / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>MLB's focus to date is on potential rule alterations that would aim to reduce velocity and max-effort throwing by incentivizing longer outings.But perhaps the foul ball is another area to explore. Strike rules have evolved over time, but they haven't changed in more than a century.In 1845, the Knickerbocker Base Ball Club created the rule that three strikes equal an out, though they had to be swinging strikes.The called strike didn't arrive until 1858, and foul balls weren't credited as strikes until 1901 in the National League and 1903 in the American League, in response to skilled batters spoiling pitches to force walks.Rule makers then thought the balance between batters and pitchers had gotten out of whack regarding fouls. Has it reached that point again?If rules were created from scratch today, it'd be a bit odd to conceive of a foul ball as a strike in situations with zero and one strike while allowing batters an infinite number of chances to waste pitches once they're at two strikes.MLB's product is its best when games feature less dead time, and when its best pitchers are healthy. After more than 100 years, perhaps it's time to revisit the foul ball.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/30040751/related

The quiet scourge of the foul ball

Former major leaguer and NESN personality Lou Merloni recently joked on social media that he woul...

Former major leaguer and NESN personality Lou Merloni recently joked on social media that he would like to see the Los Angeles Dodgers sign Pete Alonso."He can pinch hit and spell (Shohei) Ohtani on nights he pitches. Maybe even play first base once in a while to keep (Freddie) Freeman healthy. You need depth!" Merloni quipped.And while they're at it, Merloni added, they might as well sign Alex Bregman, another top free agent.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>The tongue-in-cheek post came after the Dodgers signed Tanner Scott, the top reliever available on the market, on Sunday. That signing followed the decision of the top international pitcher, Roki Sasaki, to join the club Friday. Three days earlier, it was reported the franchise is closing in on reliever Kirby Yates.The Dodgers are making a joke of the extreme imbalance found in MLB's competitive landscape.Consider that Sasaki, Scott, Yates, Blake Snell, Ohtani (limited to hitting), and Tyler Glasnow (injured) did not pitch for the Dodgers in the postseason last fall, and they still won the World Series.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759296/cropped_GettyImages-2187557156.jpg?ts=1737489623" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759296/w220xh124_GettyImages-2187557156.jpg?ts=1737489623 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759296/w320xh180_GettyImages-2187557156.jpg?ts=1737489623 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759296/w640xh360_GettyImages-2187557156.jpg?ts=1737489623 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759296/w768xh432_GettyImages-2187557156.jpg?ts=1737489623 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759296/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2187557156.jpg?ts=1737489623 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Wally Skalij / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>They're favorites to win the World Series again in 2025. No team has won consecutive titles since the 1998-2000 Yankees. It's tough to regularly advance in baseball's expanded playoff era, let alone go all the way, but this feels like a potential dynasty.But for many fans around the continent, it feels like the season is over before it begins. As Cubs baseball operations chief Jed Hoyer told Bob Nightengale of USA Today last week, the Dodgers simply do everything well."People focus on the size of their payroll and the deferments, and stuff like that, but it's just a great organization that's kind of running on all the cylinders," <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2025/01/18/cubs-owner-tom-ricketts-spending-payroll/77809924007/">Hoyer said</a>. "They do well in the draft. They do well internationally. They make smart trades. They do a good job finding value on the margins. And they also can go sign major free agents. "So, I just think that focusing on the amount of money they spend does a disservice to an organization that's running at a really high level."The Dodgers are an example of what happens when "Moneyball" brains - Andrew Friedman and the baseball operations team he's assembled - are combined with the financial might of Guggenheim Baseball Management, the ownership group that features billionaires Mark Walter and Todd Boehly, as well as Magic Johnson, Stan Kasten, and Billie Jean King.But Hoyer's point misses the essence of the animosity.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765981/cropped_GettyImages-1848361105.jpg?ts=1737494288" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765981/w220xh124_GettyImages-1848361105.jpg?ts=1737494288 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765981/w320xh180_GettyImages-1848361105.jpg?ts=1737494288 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765981/w640xh360_GettyImages-1848361105.jpg?ts=1737494288 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765981/w768xh432_GettyImages-1848361105.jpg?ts=1737494288 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765981/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1848361105.jpg?ts=1737494288 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Rob Leiter / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The subtitle of "Moneyball" was "The art of winning an unfair game." Now the data- and science-driven processes that lifted early adopters of the approach have been accepted and refined by a financial superpower. The Dodgers can find and squeeze value like the best small-market clubs while landing superstar talents, all while dodging the full brunt of their luxury-tax bill. There are few constraints on what they can do.Perception matters. And the perception of MLB is that its playing field is too imbalanced in favor of the wealthiest teams.So how can MLB Dodgerproof itself?<h3>Stop the tax dodging</h3>The deferred money the Dodgers are handing out should be addressed when the current collective bargaining agreement is up for renegotiation after the 2026 season.If players want to defer money, that's their business. But teams should not be able to reduce their luxury-tax payments by deferring money.Ohtani's 10-year, $700-million deal should count as a $70 million per year against the tax threshold, not the $46-million figure that accounts for the deferments Ohtani won't see until after the deal expires.If franchises want to build a superteam on the open market, nothing is stopping them. But they should have to pay full freight.<h3>Nudging the other guys </h3>Baseball should incentivize all 30 owners to compete - if only to fight the perception problem in smaller markets.There's endless discussion on social media and talk radio about cheap owners and payroll discrepancy, even though scouting and player development capabilities mean much more to an organization than free-agent spending. Such talk is a raincloud hanging over the sport, and the Dodgers' maneuvers are only increasing the amount of chatter.At the Pittsburgh Pirates' fan event over the weekend, chants of "sell the team" broke out as team president Travis Williams and broadcaster Greg Brown were taking questions.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Don't have it on video, but here is a transcribed layout of how the "sell the team" chant went down during the first question of "Ask Pirates management" at Pirate fest: <a href="https://t.co/8e7WG87rZX">pic.twitter.com/8e7WG87rZX</a>— Noah Hiles (@_NoahHiles) <a href="https://twitter.com/_NoahHiles/status/1880668739613458835?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 18, 2025</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure>Baseball needs a mechanism to force more spending from more owners. Even if the mechanism only has a modest effect on the standings and slowing down the Dodgers, it will have a significant effect on fans' perception of the game.Something like a payroll floor would help the vast majority of players, too. The MLB's median player salary ranks last among the major pro sports because no other sport leans on minimum-salaried players like baseball. Few players reach free agency, let alone arbitration.The MLBPA has long espoused the virtue of trickle-down economics, arguing the higher the maximum contracts go, the more they will lift other salaries. But that hasn't proven to be true.Over the last 30 years, the top 10 free agents in a class accounted for an average of 56.6% of the free-agent money spent that season, according to theScore's analysis of Cot's Baseball Contract data.The top five deals every season account for 39.8% of all free-agent spending, while the top player in a class consumes an average of 12.7% of the money spent.This system benefits only a few players and clubs.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
A certain team is not ruining baseball A lot of other teams are just doing very little— Jack Flaherty (@jflare_) <a href="https://twitter.com/jflare_/status/1881829907548017142?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 21, 2025</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure><h3>IFA change</h3>Sasaki is considered an amateur international free agent. He's subject to be signed under the international free agent bonus pool because he's under 25 and has played fewer than six years with a foreign professional league.Of course, Sasaki is anything but an amateur. He's one of the top professional pitchers on the planet and should be treated as such. He should have access to an open market, not the artificial one ruled by the bonus pool.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765963/cropped_GettyImages-1474925726.jpg?ts=1737494033" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765963/w220xh124_GettyImages-1474925726.jpg?ts=1737494033 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765963/w320xh180_GettyImages-1474925726.jpg?ts=1737494033 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765963/w640xh360_GettyImages-1474925726.jpg?ts=1737494033 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765963/w768xh432_GettyImages-1474925726.jpg?ts=1737494033 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765963/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1474925726.jpg?ts=1737494033 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Eric Espada / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>He might still choose the Dodgers in such a world, but he would at least do so at a market rate, which would likely compete with or exceed Yoshinobu Yamamoto's $325-million deal. In Sasaki, the Dodgers added an ace-level talent at a pre-arbitration salary plus the bonus. For a team with a $375-million luxury-tax payroll, that's quite a gift.<h3>Are expanded playoffs enough? </h3>Proponents of the status quo note there have been nine different World Series champions since 2014. They argue there's plenty of parity in MLB.Of course, MLB is not a league where talent is proven over small samples.For context, No. 1 seeds comprise more than half of Super Bowl winners and two-thirds of NBA champions. But only 43% of World Series winners in the wild-card era were a top seed.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752718/cropped_GettyImages-2182033647.jpg?ts=1737490262" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752718/w220xh124_GettyImages-2182033647.jpg?ts=1737490262 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752718/w320xh180_GettyImages-2182033647.jpg?ts=1737490262 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752718/w640xh360_GettyImages-2182033647.jpg?ts=1737490262 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752718/w768xh432_GettyImages-2182033647.jpg?ts=1737490262 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752718/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2182033647.jpg?ts=1737490262 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Luke Hales / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The Dodgers have an implied 25% chance of winning the World Series. While that's still a rare percentage, it speaks to how difficult it is to navigate an expanded playoff field. There's postseason parity in MLB because the best players can't dominate action like an NBA star or NFL quarterback.But MLB does not have actual parity. It's only the product of arbitrary and expanded playoffs.Since 2014, the Dodgers, Astros and Yankees rank first, second, and third in wins, while the Cardinals, Red Sox, and Braves are in the top 10. Since 2005, the Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals, Red Sox, and Braves rank first to fifth in wins.Playing the Dodgers is now akin to sitting across a poker table from a pro who gets dealt an extra card or two. No one wants to play a game with the deck stacked against them. Barring a rash of severe injuries, the 2025 season feels like the Dodgers versus the rest of the field.There are those who believe this supervillain team is good for baseball. The Dodgers will come to town, boost attendance for a series in many markets, and TV ratings will get a lift when they're in the postseason. But the cost of this imbalance and concentration of talent is that fewer teams believe they have any shot of postseason success.That makes it hard to believe these Dodgers are good for the game.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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Dodgerproofing baseball: How to save the game from its evil empire

Bob Uecker completed his forgettable six-year major-league career with an even .200 batting avera...

Bob Uecker completed his forgettable six-year major-league career with an even .200 batting average."Sporting goods companies pay me not to endorse their products," he once quipped.He called his hometown Milwaukee Brewers games for 54 consecutive years until his death at age 90 on Thursday. That run marked the second-longest streak of calling a single team's games in the sport's history, trailing only Kansas City Royals broadcaster Denny Matthews.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Despite working in a small market, despite a modest playing career, Chicago Cubs and ESPN play-by-play voice Jon "Boog" Sciambi noted how remarkable Uecker's reach was. Uecker became famous before fans could listen to out-of-market broadcasts and social media."For a stretch of time, he was one of the most famous people in the country," marveled Sciambi. "He has the most appearances ever on the Johnny Carson show, I believe, and people didn't have access to him."<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Bob Uecker makes Johnny Carson crack up on "The Tonight Show"! (1984) ⚾️ RIP "Mr. Baseball" <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MLB?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#MLB</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Baseball?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Baseball</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Legend?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Legend</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RIPBobUecker?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RIPBobUecker</a> <a href="https://t.co/O8pwvCQUYw">pic.twitter.com/O8pwvCQUYw</a>— Baseball by BSmile (@BSmile) <a href="https://twitter.com/BSmile/status/1879963594017894652?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 16, 2025</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure>Uecker's superpower that attracted so many people to him? "Authenticity," Sciambi said.He became beloved by being himself, combining his love of baseball with self-effacing humor and deadpan wit.Sciambi first became familiar with Uecker through his Miller Lite beer commercials. Others knew him from his work on network baseball telecasts, as a talk show staple, or as an actor, best known for his role as announcer Harry Doyle in the three "Major League" films. In many ways, Uecker was the star of that film. Anyone who has seen the movie can recall Uecker saying fictional Cleveland reliever Rick "Wild Thing" Vaughn "tried the corner and missed" and was "just a bit outside" as a pitch whizzed to the backstop.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
The magic of Major League doesn’t exist without Bob Uecker. His commentary was perfect and no other voice could have filled that role. A legendary commentator whose voice will be missed forever. Rest easy Bob. <a href="https://t.co/ECvPcpknL6">pic.twitter.com/ECvPcpknL6</a>— Shooter McGavin (@ShooterMcGavin_) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShooterMcGavin_/status/1879955943259246886?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 16, 2025</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure>But unlike many, Sciambi got to know Uecker as a colleague. And what he saw was someone who treated everyone warmly and equally."A little thing would be I would walk in his booth (pregame), and he'd be down a level, and I would just say 'Hey.' He'd turn and look at me, and as I'd see his face, my face would light up," said Sciambi, who worked in the NL Central for years with Uecker. "And the thing that was so cool for me is that his face would light up, too."One thing that always struck Sciambi was how much Brewers players loved Uecker, which is unusual for a member of the media - even the local broadcast crew.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765886/Screenshot_2025-01-17_at_11.01.50_AM.jpg?ts=1737129835" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765886/Screenshot_2025-01-17_at_11.01.50_AM.jpg?ts=1737129835 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765886/Screenshot_2025-01-17_at_11.01.50_AM.jpg?ts=1737129835 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765886/Screenshot_2025-01-17_at_11.01.50_AM.jpg?ts=1737129835 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765886/Screenshot_2025-01-17_at_11.01.50_AM.jpg?ts=1737129835 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/765886/Screenshot_2025-01-17_at_11.01.50_AM.jpg?ts=1737129835 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption">X.com </figcaption></figure>"For the Brewers, he was like a player," Sciambi recalled. "They <a href="https://x.com/JohnAxford/status/1879985535302922478">revered him</a>. Just go on Twitter and look at Christian Yelich postgame after Game 3 (NL wild-card round). He gets choked up. Because right before Yelich's postgame scrum, he's just talked to Uecker, and he feels bad because Uecker is such a die-hard Brewers guy. He's also wondering if he's ever going to see him again."<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Bob Uecker circled the room tonight, starting with Devin Williams. Then he gathered with a group of players in back for hugs and “see you next seasons.” If you’re wondering how much these guys love him, see Christian Yelich. <a href="https://t.co/GaidgFlwV8">pic.twitter.com/GaidgFlwV8</a>— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) <a href="https://twitter.com/AdamMcCalvy/status/1842045960022577410?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 4, 2024</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure>He was so popular that the Brewers' players voted him a full playoff share - $123,000 - in 2018."It was his ability to make guys laugh and relate," Sciambi said. "I know (former Brewers manager) Craig Counsell had a great relationship with him. Treasured it."<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/318526/cropped_GettyImages-1046330884.jpg?ts=1737059520" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/318526/w220xh124_GettyImages-1046330884.jpg?ts=1737059520 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/318526/w320xh180_GettyImages-1046330884.jpg?ts=1737059520 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/318526/w640xh360_GettyImages-1046330884.jpg?ts=1737059520 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/318526/w768xh432_GettyImages-1046330884.jpg?ts=1737059520 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/318526/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1046330884.jpg?ts=1737059520 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption">Craig Counsell and Bob Uecker share a laugh before Game 2 of the 2018 National League Divisional Series between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Colorado Rockies on Oct. 5, 2018, at Miller Park. Icon Sportswire / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Chicago White Sox play-by-play voice Len Kasper learned a lot from Uecker, whom he knew for more than 30 years; from the time he graduated from Marquette University in Milwaukee to working for the Brewers' flagship radio station. He even called some games with Uecker."I am told, for his Hall of Fame speech, he had nothing written," Kasper recalled. "It was one joke after the next, after the next, after the next. It is the greatest Hall of Fame speech ever just because it was just so entertaining.”<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
19 minutes of legendary Bob Uecker calls and moments 💙 <a href="https://t.co/2gcQK2Mtzf">pic.twitter.com/2gcQK2Mtzf</a>— MLB (@MLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1879976690538942741?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 16, 2025</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure>He was baseball's storyteller, an important skill given the amount of dead time during games."It's also the delivery," Kasper said. "You can write down his jokes, and they are funny, but when he delivers them … It's not as funny if (he) doesn't tell it."Kasper says Uecker's cough button - which broadcasters use to briefly kill their mic to save their audience from hearing their throats cleared - should go into the Hall of Fame. Uecker often employed it to have off-air conversations with whoever was visiting him in the booth."It never failed for Bob," Kasper recalled. "He often did two broadcasts at once, depending on who was in the booth. One was on the air, and the other was off the air. I witnessed it many times."Uecker had a one-of-one personality and ability to tell stories. But there are lessons from Uecker that Kasper incorporates into his own call of games. <figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/473935/cropped_GettyImages-1342536960.jpg?ts=1737059589" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/473935/w220xh124_GettyImages-1342536960.jpg?ts=1737059589 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/473935/w320xh180_GettyImages-1342536960.jpg?ts=1737059589 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/473935/w640xh360_GettyImages-1342536960.jpg?ts=1737059589 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/473935/w768xh432_GettyImages-1342536960.jpg?ts=1737059589 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/473935/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1342536960.jpg?ts=1737059589 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> John Fisher / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>"Three things stand out. No. 1 is to have fun. Bob did that better than anyone. When you are doing local big league baseball, people want to feel like you are their friend. They do not want you to take yourself too seriously. Bob would never have been accused of that," Kasper said."No. 2 was, like many from his generation, it was, 'Where is the ball, what is the score, what is the count, what is the base-running situation?' It's the nuts and bolts, as basic as you can get. When you are doing radio, you have to repeat (that) every three-to-four minutes."We get caught up in the statistics and strategy too much. I think Bob was very good to 'keep it simple.' You always knew what was happening in that moment."For all of his fame and accolades, Kasper said Uecker loved calling Brewers games more than anything.Kasper jokes that just like there are NFL coaching trees, there's a tree for Uecker's method of scoring games.Uecker would share his scorebook with fellow broadcasters, who might be filling in for him a game, or an inning, but you had to learn to score like Uecker.Keep it simple: Kasper still scores extra base hits like Uecker did. A double is simply written as a "2."He was simple in other ways, too. For as great of a storyteller as Uecker was, Kasper said he also knew when not to speak. "He created a lot of space in his play-by-play … knowing when to let the sounds of the crowd and ballpark take over. He had a very good feel. That's hard when you are paid for a living to speak."Sciambi believes Uecker doesn't get enough credit for the quality of his play-by-play call and said he was still razor-sharp in his final season.Sciambi and Uecker also became close because ALS had touched each of their lives. Sciambi lost a friend to the disease and helps <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-broadcaster-boog-sciambi-raises-money-to-cure-als">raise funds</a> to fight it. Uecker's daughter, Leeann, died from ALS in 2022.They'd regularly exchange texts about all sorts of things. One of the last interactions they had was an accidental dial, which Uecker apologized for in a text explaining one of his grandkids had his phone.Sciambi recalled another fairly recent interaction he had with Uecker in which the baseball icon explained what he wanted to see in a final bobblehead depicting him."I know this is going to sound morbid, but this is him to a T," Sciambi said. "He said that he wanted his final bobblehead to be him in a coffin, and the way it works is, is he pops out of the coffin, and it plays his home run call: 'Get up, get up, get outta here!' … Then the coffin closes, and he goes back in, and he says: 'And gone.'"He was incredible. He was fun and funny, and he was kind. … He was just larger than life. I loved him."Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

MILWAUKEE, WI - 1980: Broadcaster Bob Uecker of the Milwaukee Brewers in the booth during a game at County Stadium in the 1980s in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

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Colleagues reflect on the incredible life of Bob Uecker

Scott Boras reportedly had an interesting - and dated - contract comparison in mind for star clie...

Scott Boras reportedly had an interesting - and dated - contract comparison in mind for star client Pete Alonso entering free agency this offseason.USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported the comp was a deal Boras negotiated for another first baseman more than a decade ago: the nine-year, $214-million pact Prince Fielder signed with the Detroit Tigers before the 2012 season.Boras denied that report, but there's a good reason why he'd focus on Fielder's deal: It's the biggest free-agent contract Boras has negotiated for a first baseman. It also stands as the second-best total amount for the position ever behind Albert Pujols' deal with the Angels (10 years, $240 million) during the same offseason.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/492248/cropped_GettyImages-167770027.jpg?ts=1666732632" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/492248/w220xh124_GettyImages-167770027.jpg?ts=1666732632 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/492248/w320xh180_GettyImages-167770027.jpg?ts=1666732632 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/492248/w640xh360_GettyImages-167770027.jpg?ts=1666732632 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/492248/w768xh432_GettyImages-167770027.jpg?ts=1666732632 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/492248/w1080xh607_GettyImages-167770027.jpg?ts=1666732632 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Leon Halip / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Thirteen years is an eternity in the business of contract inflation, and yet no other first baseman has surpassed the $200-million mark on the open market since. Joey Votto and Miguel Cabrera did exceed $200 million in contract extensions but those deals, too, were signed more than a decade ago.We generally witness record contracts over time as the league's revenues increase. Just one year after Shohei Ohtani's record-breaking $700-million deal, Juan Soto smashed that with his $765-million pact this winter (with no deferred money like Ohtani). But these increases don't happen with every type of player. Some are being frozen out.Consider that Alonso, whose 226 homers come in just six less than Aaron Judge's total over the last six seasons, is already lowering demands. He's willing to sign a short-term deal to return to the New York Mets, according to <a href="https://x.com/JimDuquetteGM/status/1877715029790712099">MLB Network Radio's Jim Duquette</a>. But, even at those reduced demands, the Mets are still "holding the line" with what they're willing to guarantee Alonso, according to <a href="https://x.com/SNY_Mets/status/1879567853768114278">SNY's Andy Martino</a>.Also waiting for a deal is corner outfielder Anthony Santander, fresh off of slugging 44 homers, and third baseman Alex Bregman, a top-20 hitter over the last six years with a combined 133 wRC+.Despite their impressive resumes, these players don't have bidders tripping over themselves at the prices the players believe they deserve. Each one also plays a corner position and is either on the wrong side of 30 or will soon be.While starting pitchers, premium up-the-middle position players, and young superstar bats are breaking records for guarantees, there's less interest in 30-something corner players. That's especially true for what was once a prized commodity: slugging first basemen.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/612085/cropped_GettyImages-937943316.jpg?ts=1736975437" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/612085/w220xh124_GettyImages-937943316.jpg?ts=1736975437 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/612085/w320xh180_GettyImages-937943316.jpg?ts=1736975437 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/612085/w640xh360_GettyImages-937943316.jpg?ts=1736975437 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/612085/w768xh432_GettyImages-937943316.jpg?ts=1736975437 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/612085/w1080xh607_GettyImages-937943316.jpg?ts=1736975437 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Icon Sportswire / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Only one first baseman struck a deal that exceeded nine figures on the open market during the last seven offseasons: Freddie Freeman in 2022.Freeman is also the only first baseman in the last seven years whose contract ranked among the top 10 of free-agent guarantees.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Corner the market" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-iI0YS" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/iI0YS/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="474" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure>Compare that to the previous 10-year span (2009-18), in which 14 first basemen or designated hitters inked contracts that ranked among the top-10 free-agent deals per year.Dating back to the 1995-96 campaign, the top 10 free agents in a class accounted for 56.6% of all free-agent money, according to theScore's analysis of Cot's Baseball Contract data.The top five deals every season account for 39.8% of all free-agent spending.The top player in a class consumes an average of 12.7% of the money spent.In the winter leading up to the 2012 season, Pujols and Fielder ranked first and second.While this corner-slugger decline is dependent on the talent available, there's also a clear shift in teams favoring other positions.Only one first baseman has ranked at the top since 2012: Eric Hosmer did it when he signed with San Diego ahead of the 2018 season. Besides Freeman, only Chris Davis (2016), part-time first baseman Ian Desmond (2017), and Hosmer ranked in the top five of a class in the last decade.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/394483/cropped_GettyImages-580013830.jpg?ts=1736975525" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/394483/w220xh124_GettyImages-580013830.jpg?ts=1736975525 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/394483/w320xh180_GettyImages-580013830.jpg?ts=1736975525 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/394483/w640xh360_GettyImages-580013830.jpg?ts=1736975525 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/394483/w768xh432_GettyImages-580013830.jpg?ts=1736975525 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/394483/w1080xh607_GettyImages-580013830.jpg?ts=1736975525 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Icon Sports Wire / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>This list explains, in part, the reluctance to pay for a bat-first corner today.<ul><li>Injury ended Fielder's career in just the fifth year of his contract.</li></ul><ul><li>Pujols produced 12.4 bWAR and a .256/.311/448 slash line over his 10-year deal, massively underwhelming production for what he cost.</li></ul><ul><li>Davis produced minus-2.7 WAR during his six-year contract and retired more than a year before it concluded. He had a minus-3.3 WAR season in the third year of the deal with a .168 batting average, the worst mark among qualified hitters in MLB history.</li></ul><ul><li>Hosmer's contract was an albatross for San Diego: He immediately posted negative fWAR before the Padres paid down almost all of his remaining deal a few years later to send him to the Boston Red Sox.</li></ul><ul><li>Desmond produced minus-2.6 WAR in the first three years of his five-year deal, opted out because of the pandemic in Year 4, then retired.</li></ul>Only Freeman's nine-figure deal looks like a positive investment among first basemen.At third base, Anthony Rendon's seven-year, $245-million deal with the Los Angeles Angels and Kris Bryant's seven-year, $182-million contract with the Colorado Rockies represent some of the most player-friendly deals of all time.Combined, first basemen, third basemen, left fielders, right fielders, and DHs account for just 23% of the top 10 free-agent contracts per year dating back to the offseason before 2019.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744561/cropped_GettyImages-2169747726.jpg?ts=1736975574" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744561/w220xh124_GettyImages-2169747726.jpg?ts=1736975574 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744561/w320xh180_GettyImages-2169747726.jpg?ts=1736975574 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744561/w640xh360_GettyImages-2169747726.jpg?ts=1736975574 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744561/w768xh432_GettyImages-2169747726.jpg?ts=1736975574 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744561/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2169747726.jpg?ts=1736975574 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Brandon Sloter / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>We can begin to understand why Alonso, Santander, and Bregman are still unsigned, and perhaps lowering their asking price.Third baseman Matt Chapman had to lessen his demands late last winter. Cody Bellinger, another Boras client and sometimes first baseman, did the same.Longtime first baseman Brandon Belt, who was among the most productive hitters in 2023 with a 138 wRC+, didn't even sign a contract last offseason. He said last March he received little interest from clubs.One front office official explained to theScore that it's uncomfortable to invest in players whose value is driven solely by their bat and who have nowhere to move down the defensive spectrum should their athleticism wane. (This is less of an issue with Bregman, a quality defender, but a common one with corner types.)There are exceptions at the corners: Elite, under-30 bats like Soto, Bryce Harper, and Manny Machado. If Santander, Alonso, and Bregman were entering their age-26 seasons like Soto, they'd have more robust markets. But, like so many free agents, they'll play next season at age 30 or older, and they now also generally play the less desirable positions.They will all sign eventually. But their cases remind us that the era of the veteran slugger has passed.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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Remaining free-agent sluggers are feeling the squeeze

It's that time of year again.   Each voter's given a seemingly straightforward task when the Nati...

It's that time of year again. Each voter's given a seemingly straightforward task when the National Baseball Hall of Fame ballot arrives each November: evaluate the list of candidates and select which players deserve to be enshrined.How voters determine who's worthy is anything but simple or uniform. The process is different from voter to voter.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>What I strive to do as a voter is be objective. I've set up a process that I continue to follow into my third year as a voter. That doesn't mean I get it 100% right, but what I believe gatekeepers ought to strive for is fairness and consistency.How to determine if a candidate belongs in this exclusive group? I begin again by respecting precedent to determine who ought to be in the Hall.For each position, if a candidate isn't less than one standard deviation from the median in a number of performance measures at his respective primary position, I reason he likely belongs.As for those performance measures, it's a challenge to compare across eras, but stats like OPS+, ERA+, WAR, and WAR7 (a player's top seven seasons) help adjust for different eras and ballpark factors.I also equally weigh both a player's peak and overall career production. Hall precedent generally asserts that a player must have enjoyed a long career but also sustained an elite peak.There's nuance beyond that - awards, role in team success, and PED usage consideration - but that's the basis of how I arrive at decisions.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/602381/cropped_GettyImages-830032462.jpg?ts=1734554929" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/602381/w220xh124_GettyImages-830032462.jpg?ts=1734554929 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/602381/w320xh180_GettyImages-830032462.jpg?ts=1734554929 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/602381/w640xh360_GettyImages-830032462.jpg?ts=1734554929 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/602381/w768xh432_GettyImages-830032462.jpg?ts=1734554929 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/602381/w1080xh607_GettyImages-830032462.jpg?ts=1734554929 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Brace Hemmelgarn / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Hall of Fame voters are typically categorized as belonging to one of two camps: small or large Hall voters.In my third year as a voter, I suppose I'm considered a large Hall-er. After all, one can only vote for up to 10 players and I've voted for 10 on each prior occasion. But I'm simply attempting to be a right-sized Hall voter with my process.Of 17,610 major-league players to debut between 1871 and 1999, only 1.56% - 274 players - have reached Cooperstown.Consider that every player to step on a major-league field could be seated in Fenway Park and there'd still be more than 10,000 empty seats. Then consider that everyone inducted into the Hall could fit into a dozen rows of one section.The idea the Hall's been watered down simply isn't true. In fact, it's become too exclusive for modern players.Players who debuted in the 1890s, 1920s, and 1950s were inducted at rates well over 2%. But acceptance rates are well below 2% for those to debut in the 1970s and 1980s, and below 1% for players from the 1990s. The logjam isn't going away any time soon as players from the 21st century begin to appear on ballots.All that said, let's get into my ballot.<h3>The holdovers</h3>This year's vote was made a little easier as three players received the necessary 75% share of votes to join the Hall’s 2025 class: Adrian Beltré, Todd Helton, and Joe Mauer. Their selections relieved a bit of the ballot crowding.Another player I voted for, Gary Sheffield, didn't reach 75% in his 10th and final year of ballot eligibility. His case is now left to future committees.That means there are four open slots on my ballot. The six returning to my ballot are:<ul>
<li>Bobby Abreu (appeared on 14.8% of 2024 ballots, in his sixth year of eligibility)</li>
<li>Andruw Jones (61.6%, eighth year)</li>
<li>Manny Ramirez (32.5%, ninth year)</li>
<li>Alex Rodriguez (34.8%, fourth year)</li>
<li>Chase Utley (28.8%, second year)</li>
<li>Billy Wagner (73.8%, 10th and final year)</li>
</ul>Abreu's perhaps my most controversial selection, and my defense of his candidacy can be <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/2800615" href="https://thescore.com/news/2800615">read here</a>.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/45093/cropped_USPW_203029.jpg?ts=1734554631" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/45093/w220xh124_USPW_203029.jpg?ts=1734554631 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/45093/w320xh180_USPW_203029.jpg?ts=1734554631 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/45093/w640xh360_USPW_203029.jpg?ts=1734554631 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/45093/w768xh432_USPW_203029.jpg?ts=1734554631 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/45093/w1080xh607_USPW_203029.jpg?ts=1734554631 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Kim Klement / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Yes, I selected some players whose legacies are tarnished by PED use. While there's a debate over whether players who tested positive for steroids belong in the Hall, there's a rule governing their eligibility: if they failed three PED tests, they're ineligible. If they didn't, they're eligible. Given that rule, I can't dismiss them outright.But cheating shouldn't be incentivized. It shouldn't go on without penalty. As imperfect as my solution may be, I discount performance of proven PED users by shaving 10% off their value in my accounting. My reasoning: this should remove fringe candidates who benefited from PEDs, but not elite players. Manny and ARod clear the thresholds.So, as for those four open slots ...<h3>From last out to over the line</h3>Carlos BeltránBeltrán's not new to the ballot (57.1%, 3rd year) but is new to mine.My process deemed him worthy last year, but he was left out in a numbers game. Being a big part of the Astros' sign-stealing scandal doesn't help, but there's no precedent for banning sign-stealers - even blatant ones.He was an excellent five-tool performer with a deserving Hall of Fame resume. Beltrán finished his career just a tick below the average Hall marks in WAR and WAR7 for center fielders.He ranks eighth in total WAR and 11th in WAR7 among all center fielders in baseball history.<h3>The newcomers</h3>Ichiro SuzukiIchiro falls short in terms of career WAR (60) compared to the Hall's average for right fielders (73), while just outpacing the WAR7 average (43.7 to 43.2).Of course, there's a big caveat here: Ichiro didn't arrive to the majors until his age-27 season, immediately winning 2001 AL MVP and Rookie of the Year honors in one of baseball history's most remarkable campaigns.He erased any doubt about the ability of a Japanese star hitter performing in the majors as a rookie when he paced baseball with 242 hits and the AL with a .350 batting mark.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/618343/cropped_GettyImages-52249797.jpg?ts=1709143068" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/618343/w220xh124_GettyImages-52249797.jpg?ts=1709143068 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/618343/w320xh180_GettyImages-52249797.jpg?ts=1709143068 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/618343/w640xh360_GettyImages-52249797.jpg?ts=1709143068 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/618343/w768xh432_GettyImages-52249797.jpg?ts=1709143068 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/618343/w1080xh607_GettyImages-52249797.jpg?ts=1709143068 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Lisa Blumenfeld / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The trailblazer didn't slow down until much later in his career.Suzuki warrants consideration alone for helping pave the way for other NPB hitters, but his play is also deserving, from advanced to traditional numbers.He reached the traditional Hall benchmark of 3,000 hits (3,089), and produced 4,367 hits over 28 professional seasons when you combine those MLB hits with his work in Japan, making him the combined NPB/MLB all-time hit king.He was also a great baserunner and possessed one of the greatest right-field arms of all time. He's a lock as a first-ballot Hall of Famer.CC SabathiaPitchers are trickier cases than position players in the modern era.Because the nature of the position has changed so much - namely that far fewer innings are tossed by starting pitchers in recent years - it's more difficult for pitchers to not only reach traditional benchmarks like 300 wins but to accumulate WAR.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/362989/cropped_GettyImages-1155001231.jpg?ts=1734554362" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/362989/w220xh124_GettyImages-1155001231.jpg?ts=1734554362 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/362989/w320xh180_GettyImages-1155001231.jpg?ts=1734554362 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/362989/w640xh360_GettyImages-1155001231.jpg?ts=1734554362 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/362989/w768xh432_GettyImages-1155001231.jpg?ts=1734554362 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/362989/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1155001231.jpg?ts=1734554362 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Jason Miller / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>I attempt to adjust for the challenges the modern pitching candidate faces by employing measures that don't rely as much on career volume: WAR7, ERA+, and S-JAWS (Jay Jaffe's adjusted pitching measure), which attempts to adjust for the heavy workload of pitchers in baseball's early years.It's still a high bar for the modern pitcher to clear, and only one starter did so for me on this ballot: Sabathia.Sabathia ranks within one standard deviation of the median Hall starting pitcher in all three aforementioned categories, and within a half standard deviation in terms of WAR7.He's also within one standard deviation in total WAR, marking impressive and rare accumulation. He had excellent stamina, command, and a swing-and-miss slider.Sabathia enjoys exceptional counting numbers. Only Justin Verlander won more games this century than Sabathia's 251, and only Verlander and Max Scherzer have more strikeouts than Sabathia's 3,093.But CC wasn't just an elite stats compiler.Sabathia won a Cy Young Award and had four other top-five finishes. He was part of the Yankees' last World Series winner in 2009, which he helped deliver in his first year with the club. He led the majors with 19 wins and was named the ALCS MVP that October. He was 10-7 in his postseason career.Only one other new starting pitcher on the ballot warrants further consideration: Félix Hernández. He didn't make the cut for me this year, but he's the only starter on this ballot other than Sabathia to rank within a standard deviation of the Hall average in WAR7, S-JAWS, and ERA+, though his marks trail Sabathia overall in those categories.King Félix's peak was brilliant but lacks the longevity numbers, though I do plan to revisit his case. Andy Pettitte and Mark Buehrle return to the ballot, but I don't rate them quite as highly as Sabathia and Hernández.Dustin Pedroia Pedroia just clears the bar, but he's still Hall of Fame material.He finished his career within one standard deviation of the Hall average for second basemen in total production (WAR), peak (WAR7), and OPS+.That alone gets him most of the way home in my process, but his resume doesn't stop there.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/438746/cropped_GettyImages-1143046007.jpg?ts=1734554050" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/438746/w220xh124_GettyImages-1143046007.jpg?ts=1734554050 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/438746/w320xh180_GettyImages-1143046007.jpg?ts=1734554050 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/438746/w640xh360_GettyImages-1143046007.jpg?ts=1734554050 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/438746/w768xh432_GettyImages-1143046007.jpg?ts=1734554050 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/438746/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1143046007.jpg?ts=1734554050 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Boston Herald / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>He won MVP and Rookie of the Year awards. He was a three-time Gold Glove winner and finished top 10 in MVP voting three times.Pedroia led the AL in hits once, runs twice, and was a Red Sox stalwart for a team that reached the playoffs six times with him as a lineup cornerstone, and which won the 2007 and 2013 World Series.Listed at 5-9 and 170 pounds, he's one of the smallest players in the modern era to reach the Hall, a testament to his work ethic and grit.He's similar to Craig Biggio in terms of peak and OPS+. He played better defense than Biggio but had a shorter career. Pedroia also just beat out a couple of Hall-worthy players by my accounting: David Wright and Matt Holliday.Pedroia's WAR and WAR7 are slightly superior relative to his position, and he also produced more career WAR and had a superior peak to Holliday and Wright.And in such close debates, it helps Pedroia that he owns a World Series ring and MVP award. That matters when considering fame and historical baseball relevance.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Sawchik's 2025 ballot" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-ipSWr" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ipSWr/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="563" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure>Once again, there are more deserving players than eligible spots. Hopefully more players are elected to alleviate the voting pressure building as 21st-century players arrive on the ballot. We shouldn't want another underrepresented generation of ballplayers.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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One writer's Hall of Fame ballot, explained

To cap our Eras project, we select and celebrate the immense achievements of the 25 most signific...

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The 25 greatest athletes of the last 25 years

The baseball world believes it's unlikely Vladimir Guerrero Jr. forgoes free agency next winter b...

The baseball world believes it's unlikely Vladimir Guerrero Jr. forgoes free agency next winter by signing an extension with the Toronto Blue Jays.Although Toronto still hopes to sign its star first baseman, as The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reported this week, it seems unlikely the parties will find common ground with Guerrero so close to the open market. He'll be the most sought-after free agent after next season and only 26 years old.Guerrero reportedly already rejected a $340-million extension earlier this winter, and his price tag only increased after Juan Soto signed a record $765-million deal earlier this month.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Not helping Toronto's negotiating position is the fact everyone knows the club made lucrative offers to Soto and Shohei Ohtani over the last two offseasons.With Soto's deal resetting the market for young free agents, the Jays and ownership (Rogers Communications) may have to spend half a billion dollars to keep Guerrero long term.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/cropped_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/w220xh124_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/w320xh180_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/w640xh360_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/w768xh432_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Icon Sportswire / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>It leaves team management with a difficult set of choices: pony up the big bucks, face the loss of its franchise cornerstone after this season, or trade him during the year if Toronto falls out of contention.The lesson in Guerrero's case is the cost of waiting.Yes, there's a cost to a club if it makes a big bet on a young player in the early years of his career before he establishes a track record.But there's also the price of indecision. The closer a young star inches toward free agency, the more expensive his contract extension demands become. The decision to wait may also leave the player feeling he's not valued enough to remain.The Blue Jays should have made an offer to Guerrero much earlier in his career that he would have had difficulty refusing.However, to be fair to the club, rival front-office officials tell theScore it's become more difficult to lock up young players to extensions. Moreover, Guerrero didn't always make it easy to want to bet on him.After his breakout 2021 campaign that saw him finish second in MVP voting behind Ohtani - a season fueled in part by playing in hitter-friendly, temporary home ballparks in Dunedin and Buffalo - he followed with two consecutive years of decline.He batted only .264 with a 118 wRC+ in 2023. There were questions about how he'd age, especially before he dedicated himself to a new training regimen last winter.And with a defensive profile likely limiting him to first base or DH, he'd have to hit - really hit - to justify a contract well into nine figures.One can understand how ownership might have balked at the prospect of a lengthy deal following two years of decline. But teams must take risks and accept uncertainty at some point to pursue upside for their club.If the Blue Jays weren't going buy low (or lower) on Guerrero at an earlier and more uncertain point in his career, who would they bet on?Remember, he was an incredibly rare prospect who received top-scale 80 grades for his hit and power tools from Baseball America, making him their No. 1 overall prospect. Those skill assessments were backed up by tremendous minor-league production. The bloodlines are also pristine, as his father's a Hall of Famer. Toronto made a huge push to sign him in 2015 as a 16-year-old international free agent.The cost of waiting also hurts Guerrero's value to the team as a trade chip because of the dwindling amount of club control left. Should the Jays fall out of contention by next year's trade deadline, Guerrero on a long-term extension may have had a lot of trade value should the team enter a rebuilding period, which is a very real possibility.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742886/cropped_GettyImages-2168644448.jpg?ts=1734721494" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742886/w220xh124_GettyImages-2168644448.jpg?ts=1734721494 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742886/w320xh180_GettyImages-2168644448.jpg?ts=1734721494 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742886/w640xh360_GettyImages-2168644448.jpg?ts=1734721494 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742886/w768xh432_GettyImages-2168644448.jpg?ts=1734721494 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742886/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2168644448.jpg?ts=1734721494 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Jason Miller / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Teams must act early with star talent. The Angels signed Mike Trout to a six-year, $144-million deal in 2014 after his second year in the majors, buying out two years of his free agency. Bobby Witt Jr. signed an 11-year, $288-million deal prior to his 2024 breakout season with Kansas City.Witt's an interesting comparison. While Trout performed magnificently in his first two full seasons, there were still some holes in Witt's game entering last year, namely a below-average on-base percentage.The Royals bet that the best prospect to come through their system in years was going to keep improving. And it's a bet that immediately paid off as Witt blossomed into an MVP-level performer and led them to a wild-card berth. Imagine Witt Jr. hitting the open market after 2027 had he not signed his extension. He might have exceeded Soto's contract guarantee.One can make the case the Blue Jays should have forced the issue with Guerrero earlier, perhaps before he even made a major-league plate appearance.There have been 14 pre-arbitration extensions awarded to players with fewer than 100 days of service time in MLB history, <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/earliest-contract-extensions-in-mlb-history-c269677352">according to</a> MLB.com's Matt Kelly. Seven such deals were given to players with zero days in the big leagues.These deals aren't without risk. Evan White (Mariners), Scott Kingery (Phillies), and Jon Singleton (Astros) all signed lucrative deals that locked them up for at least five years before taking an MLB at-bat. Those deals didn't pan out for the respective clubs.But Guerrero was a much better prospect than any of those guys.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758679/cropped_GettyImages-2173416641.jpg?ts=1734721446" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758679/w220xh124_GettyImages-2173416641.jpg?ts=1734721446 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758679/w320xh180_GettyImages-2173416641.jpg?ts=1734721446 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758679/w640xh360_GettyImages-2173416641.jpg?ts=1734721446 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758679/w768xh432_GettyImages-2173416641.jpg?ts=1734721446 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758679/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2173416641.jpg?ts=1734721446 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Sam Hodde / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>His pedigree was more like that of Jackson Chourio, who the Brewers locked up for eight years and $80 million guaranteed before he took a big-league rep. It looks like a great bet. Guerrero's potential was more like Corbin Carroll with the Diamondbacks, and Evan Longoria with the Rays, star prospects who signed extensions before accruing a year of service time.Risk is mitigated by signing players in their early to mid-20s when history says they'll continue to improve. A Guerrero today signed through, say, 2027 would at least have extended the Jays' window and enhanced his trade value.In these cases, the risk-reward balance is asymmetric. There's more upside to signing a younger player than there is possible downside. Even if the bet doesn't work out, it's at a much lower cost than having to make those risk calculations now.The downside with Guerrero was that he'd only be a somewhat above-average hitter, outside of severe injury. Even those decline years in 2022 and 2023 produced OPS+ marks of 133 and 116. He's likely to be much better than that.We don't know for sure what Blue Jays ownership was willing to offer over those early years, or what Guerrero would have accepted. What we do know: the cost of waiting is expensive. It'll cost the Jays either a massive guarantee or the loss of the franchise's face.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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What does a front office do when it is trying but unable, for whatever reason, to compete in free...

What does a front office do when it is trying but unable, for whatever reason, to compete in free agency? Make a good, old-fashioned baseball trade, of course.That is what the Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Guardians, and Pittsburgh Pirates agreed to do Tuesday night, executing what became a three-way deal.First, the Blue Jays surprised the baseball world by acquiring 2023 Platinum Glove winner Andrés Giménez and a relief pitcher from the Guardians for promising left-handed hitting infielder Spencer Horwitz and a fringe outfield prospect.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758686/cropped_GettyImages-2153718862.jpg?ts=1733948568" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758686/w220xh124_GettyImages-2153718862.jpg?ts=1733948568 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758686/w320xh180_GettyImages-2153718862.jpg?ts=1733948568 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758686/w640xh360_GettyImages-2153718862.jpg?ts=1733948568 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758686/w768xh432_GettyImages-2153718862.jpg?ts=1733948568 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758686/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2153718862.jpg?ts=1733948568 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mark Blinch / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Later in the night, the Guardians flipped Horwitz to Pittsburgh for starting pitcher Luis Ortiz and a pair of mid-tier pitching prospects.What's fascinating about this trade is the teams involved are trying to compete in 2025, and all of them dealt at least partially from strengths on their major-league rosters to address needs.As Seattle Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto <a href="https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2520676/jerry-dipoto-is-the-high-volume-trader-who-put-seattle-back-in-the-playoffs">told</a> theScore in 2023, teams should trade more often because they all have different organizational strengths and needs.<ul><li>The Blue Jays have a surplus of young, tweener bats like Horwitz and a pile of cash that superstar free agents do not seem to want.</li></ul><ul><li>The Guardians just made a second baseman, Travis Bazzana, the No. 1 pick in the draft last July, which complicated Giménez's future with the club. Coming out of college, Bazzana shouldn't be too far away.</li></ul><ul><li>The Pirates are a rare club in baseball with quality, pre-arbitration pitching depth already at the major-league level.</li></ul>All three teams have urgency and notable deficiencies. <ul><li>Toronto is in need of lineup upgrades after a poor season and entering the final year of salary control over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.</li></ul><ul><li>The Guardians are seemingly unable to compete in the free-agent pitching market because of ownership constraints. Meanwhile, their MLB-ready pitching depth has thinned.</li></ul><ul><li>The Pirates have glaring lineup voids and only so much team control over young ace Paul Skenes, who just earned a full year of service time by winning the National League Rookie of the Year award.</li></ul>Mix it all together and we get Tuesday's deal. It's the kind of trade where there does not have to be clear winners and losers.The headliner is Giménez. <figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/569738/cropped_GettyImages-1479510962.jpg?ts=1733948505" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/569738/w220xh124_GettyImages-1479510962.jpg?ts=1733948505 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/569738/w320xh180_GettyImages-1479510962.jpg?ts=1733948505 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/569738/w640xh360_GettyImages-1479510962.jpg?ts=1733948505 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/569738/w768xh432_GettyImages-1479510962.jpg?ts=1733948505 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/569738/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1479510962.jpg?ts=1733948505 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Steph Chambers / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The Blue Jays appear to be doubling down on GM Ross Atkins' run-prevention mantra, which has not gotten them where they want to be the last two seasons. But Giménez is not just a good defender, he's a great one. He was awarded the Platinum Glove in 2023, given to the game's best overall defender regardless of position. He's won the last three American League gold gloves at second base. Giménez leads baseball in defensive runs saved in that span (59).<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Play No. 9 of 2024: The stretch, the spin, the throw, the pick 🤯 An otherworldly sequence by Andrés Giménez and Josh Naylor in the ALCS! <a href="https://t.co/j9E1xTjj6p">pic.twitter.com/j9E1xTjj6p</a>— MLB (@MLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1866213590317105312?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 9, 2024</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure>The ban on infield shifts has elevated the defensive importance of second base, as range and arm strength become crucial.Since the new rules were put in place, he's <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&amp;ind=0&amp;rost=&amp;age=&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;season1=2023&amp;season=2024&amp;team=0&amp;stats=fld&amp;pos=2b&amp;type=1&amp;sortcol=12&amp;sortdir=default&amp;qual=800">produced</a> 43 DRS at second base, 40 more than the fifth-ranking second baseman, Bryson Stott. That's equivalent to four wins of value.Giménez is still just 26, and there is upside lurking. The big question is whether his bat can rebound to its 2022 level when he hit .297 with an .837 OPS and 140 wRC+ and finished sixth in MVP voting. If it does, the Blue Jays added a star at a discount.But his last two seasons have featured below-average offensive output. He's lost his power and his discipline has waned, though he's reduced his strikeout rate three years running. For his career, he's a 103 wRC+, or a league average hitter. But it's been a bumpy ride.There's reason to think he can improve, add more power, and clean up some swing decisions. But even with those two down seasons, from 2022-24 he produced 12.8 WAR, good for 26th among all position players.In some ways, the Giménez addition is similar to the Jays' addition of Matt Chapman in 2022 - another Platinum Glove winner with an uneven bat.By WAR, they are almost identical players over the last three years. Chapman just signed a six-year, $150-million contract with the Giants.While some believe the nearly $100 million left on Giménez's five-year deal is too rich for a glove-first player, his glove is so good that it fuels a 3-WAR Steamer projection.Giménez also gives the club versatility.He was a shortstop prospect and might be a Gold Glove-caliber defender there should the club eventually part with Bichette. An argument can be made to play Giménez over Bichette at shortstop this season.As for the Guardians, they seem unlikely to add a significant arm in free agency. The oft-injured Alex Cobb, a Guardian last season, just signed a one-year, $15-million contract with the Detroit Tigers. Matthew Boyd left on a relatively modest deal with the Cubs.Moreover, Cleveland's impressive run of pitching development has cooled, so to improve a thin rotation the club had to make a deal.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/760176/cropped_GettyImages-2173612339.jpg?ts=1733948472" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/760176/w220xh124_GettyImages-2173612339.jpg?ts=1733948472 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/760176/w320xh180_GettyImages-2173612339.jpg?ts=1733948472 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/760176/w640xh360_GettyImages-2173612339.jpg?ts=1733948472 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/760176/w768xh432_GettyImages-2173612339.jpg?ts=1733948472 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/760176/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2173612339.jpg?ts=1733948472 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Joe Sargent / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Luis Ortiz is an interesting arm to invest in. The 25-year-old is above average when it comes to fastball velocity and arm-extension metrics, which are difficult skills to improve compared to, say, adding a cutter or breaking ball.The Guardians have a long history of developing and getting the most out of pitchers and believe they can do that with Ortiz, especially in improving his changeup. That could spike his weak strikeout rate.He is poised for a large workload for a team that relied heavily on its bullpen in the playoffs last season. He tossed 135 innings in 2024, ranking 15th among all pitchers 25 or younger.The two prospect arms in the trade, Josh Hartle and Michael Kennedy, rank in the lower end of the Pirates' top 20 prospects.As for Pittsburgh, Jays fans know how impressive Horwitz's plate approach was last year. The Pirates needed offensive help badly.While he is an older prospect with a limited ceiling because of a lack of elite power, Steamer projects him to be the Pirates' best hitter by wRC+ (119) this coming season.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744153/cropped_GettyImages-2170104178.jpg?ts=1733948290" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744153/w220xh124_GettyImages-2170104178.jpg?ts=1733948290 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744153/w320xh180_GettyImages-2170104178.jpg?ts=1733948290 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744153/w640xh360_GettyImages-2170104178.jpg?ts=1733948290 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744153/w768xh432_GettyImages-2170104178.jpg?ts=1733948290 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744153/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2170104178.jpg?ts=1733948290 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Casey Sykes / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The Pirates were 24th in runs scored last year and 27th in wRC+ from left-handed batters. Horwitz upgrades the lineup at a pre-arbitration salary.The Pirates also still have Skenes, Jared Jones, and Mitch Keller in their rotation - though the risk here is that pitching depth is dangerous to trade away.Still, risks need to be taken to elevate a club.Only a handful of teams compete at the high end of free agency. But every front office can make a trade and deal from strength to try and improve.Those transactions make the hot-stove season a little more interesting, too.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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"OMG" was a rallying cry for the New York Mets during their remarkable second-half surge, and OMG...

"OMG" was a rallying cry for the New York Mets during their remarkable second-half surge, and OMG took on a new meaning as the details of Soto's record 15-year, $765-million deal emerged Sunday night.There were few comparables for Juan Soto in free agency; rarely do players this good and this young become available. The last time star-level players entered the open market at age 26 was in the 2018-19 offseason when both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado did it.Soto's contract has far-reaching implications on the field. Off the field, it may impact future collective bargaining and widen the gulf between franchises that are willing and unwilling to spend.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><h3>A record deal, but is Soto worth it?</h3>Despite elevated expectations, the contract still beat public forecasts of term, total dollars, and amount deferred. Harper and Machado didn't sign that long ago, yet Soto surpassed the combined value of their deals.And unlike Shohei Ohtani's record deal, there's remarkably no deferred money here. Soto's deal is worth some $300 million more in present-day value than Ohtani's inflation-adjusted valuation ($460 million). That's a giant leap.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759326/cropped_GettyImages-2166685247.jpg?ts=1733765697" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759326/w220xh124_GettyImages-2166685247.jpg?ts=1733765697 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759326/w320xh180_GettyImages-2166685247.jpg?ts=1733765697 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759326/w640xh360_GettyImages-2166685247.jpg?ts=1733765697 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759326/w768xh432_GettyImages-2166685247.jpg?ts=1733765697 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759326/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2166685247.jpg?ts=1733765697 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Quinn Harris / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Using Harper and Machado as comps while accounting for MLB revenue growth and adjusting for Soto's superior three-year performance to those two players, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3119449" href="https://thescore.com/news/3119449">we arrived</a> at a 13-year, $635.5-million valuation for Soto in November.We weren't far off on the annual average value - estimating $48.8 million versus the actual $51 million - but, like most public forecasts, we fell more than $100 million short.Using inflation-adjusted dollars, Soto's deal rivals the one Alex Rodriguez signed with the Texas Rangers in 2001 entering his age-25 season.Rodriguez was the most valuable free agent of all time. He was three years younger than Barry Bonds was when Bonds departed the Pittsburgh Pirates to sign a then-record six-year, $44-million deal with the San Francisco Giants before the 1993 season.Rodriguez was coming off a 41-homer, 9.5-WAR season as a shortstop when he left the Seattle Mariners for a then-record 10-year, $252-million contract with the Rangers. Adjusted for U.S. inflation, A-Rod's pact is worth $445 million.Since he signed that contract, the average MLB player's salary has increased 120% while MLB revenues have increased 223%. If A-Rod's deal were signed today, based on the rate of player salary inflation, it would be worth $554 million over 10 years. Expanded to the 15-year term Soto got, A-Rod's deal would have been worth $832 million.Whether Soto is worth this contract is another question.While he's an extremely young and rare offensive talent, Soto isn't 2001 A-Rod, who averaged 7.8 WAR over the three seasons leading into his free agency. Soto averaged 6.2.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/493182/cropped_GettyImages-51725767.jpg?ts=1733765799" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/493182/w220xh124_GettyImages-51725767.jpg?ts=1733765799 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/493182/w320xh180_GettyImages-51725767.jpg?ts=1733765799 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/493182/w640xh360_GettyImages-51725767.jpg?ts=1733765799 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/493182/w768xh432_GettyImages-51725767.jpg?ts=1733765799 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/493182/w1080xh607_GettyImages-51725767.jpg?ts=1733765799 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Vince Bucci / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Rodriguez also played on the left side of the infield. Soto is a poor defender who seems likely to spend much of this contract as a designated hitter.While an elite DH can be a difference-maker like David Ortiz was for the Boston Red Sox, Ortiz never earned more than $16 million in a season.A-Rod was worth his deal: He produced 424 homers and 72 WAR over the first 10 years following his signing. Will Soto be worth it? Time will tell. The aging curve can be less merciful to corner-position types.<h3>An emotional market </h3>MLB revenue growth since the Harper and Machado deals were signed doesn't explain this contract: League revenue rose 13.6% from 2018 to 2023, the last full year in which we have data.Soto enjoyed something of a perfect storm of desperate large-market clubs pushing Steve Cohen, the game's richest owner, to bid more and more.The Yankees' final offer was for $760 million. The Red Sox and Blue Jays were reportedly offering around $700 million. But no one was going to outdo Cohen. While data and analytics have made player evaluation more of a science this century, pursuing Soto carried an emotional element: It was a good old-fashioned bidding war.For some historical context, it took 14 years for Rodriguez's total value to be surpassed by Giancarlo Stanton's deal in 2015, but only one year for Soto to top Ohtani's contract. It could be years before the value of Soto's deal is surpassed.<h3>Gap grows below singular Cohen</h3>The contract immediately widens the gap between the haves and the have-nots (including those unwilling to spend). The news reignited conversation about baseball's uneven financial playing field.Consider that the Pittsburgh Pirates have spent less on their last 10 years of Opening Day payrolls combined ($731 million) than the Mets just guaranteed to a single ballplayer.MLB is a different world from the other major North American pro sports teams. There were only five serious contenders for Soto. If a young superstar was on the market in another sport, every team - at least every team with cap space - would be bidding.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/582710/cropped_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1733765607" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/582710/w220xh124_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1733765607 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/582710/w320xh180_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1733765607 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/582710/w640xh360_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1733765607 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/582710/w768xh432_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1733765607 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/582710/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1733765607 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Icon Sportswire / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Could owners like Bob Nutting in Pittsburgh spend more? Certainly. But the divide between local revenue streams is enormous in MLB, even with significant sharing of revenues.As <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3107553" href="https://thescore.com/news/3107553">we studied</a> in November, most owners want to operate with a healthy profit margin. While each team's revenue streams are different, most owners have a net gap of $150 million-$200 million between revenues coming in and dollars going out to player compensation (this does not include other operating expenses).Cohen is not most owners, though.Cohen was the only owner to spend more on player compensation and luxury-tax payments last season than his club took in during its last full year of Sportico-reported revenues. The extra luxury-tax tiers and penalties that were negotiated in the last collective bargaining agreement to slow him down don't seem to be deterring him.While more fan bases would like to have someone like Cohen writing checks, there simply are not that many billionaires - 759 in the U.S. - and fewer still who want to splash around in the professional sports pool.The Mets have a huge advantage in spending power over almost all other teams. Until measures in the CBA force owners to spend, the gulf might only widen.The deal also increases the gap in earning power between players. While MLB players enjoy unlimited earning potential in free agency, the open market is a land of riches reserved for the game's elite talents.MLB players have the lowest median and minimum salaries among the major North American pro sports leagues. Most players who step on an MLB playing field never accumulate enough service time to reach arbitration or free agency.<h3>As for the baseball games …</h3>The deal will have ripple effects through so many areas of the sport, especially on the field.Mets: They now have the makings of an elite lineup. They ranked seventh in wRC+ and ninth in position player WAR last season, and they're adding one of the game's top offensive forces to their batting order. The NL East, already arguably the toughest division in baseball, becomes even more talented.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751700/cropped_GettyImages-2180090914.jpg?ts=1729880063" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751700/w220xh124_GettyImages-2180090914.jpg?ts=1729880063 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751700/w320xh180_GettyImages-2180090914.jpg?ts=1729880063 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751700/w640xh360_GettyImages-2180090914.jpg?ts=1729880063 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751700/w768xh432_GettyImages-2180090914.jpg?ts=1729880063 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751700/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2180090914.jpg?ts=1729880063 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Newsday / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Yankees: In theory, the Yankees shouldn't have been outbid - they generated 63% more revenue than the Mets in the last full year of revenues Sportico published. The Yankees ranked first in 2023 revenues ($720 million), while the Mets ranked 10th ($441 million).Losing Soto is incredibly damaging for the Yankees in the short and medium term. The Yankees have an aging core and a weak farm system. They could have built around Soto as their foundational piece for a decade.Moreover, if the Yankees knew they were acquiring a rental player, they probably wouldn't have sent such a haul to the San Diego Padres in last winter's trade for Soto. That trade package included pitcher Michael King, who posted a 2.95 ERA over 170 innings with the Padres.Blue Jays: One must wonder what Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette were thinking Monday morning.The Blue Jays reportedly made offers in the $700-million range to Ohtani and Soto. They haven't been able to come to terms with Guerrero and Bichette on extensions, and both players are scheduled to be free agents next offseason.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/cropped_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/w220xh124_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/w320xh180_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/w640xh360_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/w768xh432_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Icon Sportswire / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>It gets tougher for clubs to complete contract extensions as players get closer to the open market. Extensions will be even more difficult following the Soto deal.The Blue Jays have a bottom-third farm system, their core players are on expiring deals, and they've fallen short on landing franchise-altering superstars. They could soon face a rebuilding period.Red Sox: On paper, Fenway Park was the best fit for Soto. It ranks behind only Coors Field in favorable ballpark factors for left-handed hitters, and left field in Fenway is an ideal place to hide Soto's glove. The Red Sox also boast one of the most talented young position-player groups in the game. Soto could have made Boston's lineup elite.However, Soto's decision to join the Mets is less damaging to the Red Sox than some other contenders. He's at least out of the division, and the Red Sox can spend elsewhere to address holes and strengthen a promising roster.Dodgers: They'll be OK, but Soto would have helped their dynasty ambitions. Their best position players are now all over the age of 30. Still, few are showing any signs of aging, and the Dodgers have a good chance of signing young Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki, who was just posted.The biggest issue for the Dodgers is that Soto is back in the National League.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/29376778/related

Juan for the money: The ripple effects of Soto's megadeal

Major League Baseball faces a structural challenge when it comes to marketing its stars that othe...

Major League Baseball faces a structural challenge when it comes to marketing its stars that other North American pro sports leagues don't face. The obstacle? It's more democratic when it comes to the distribution of playing time.A star NBA player can theoretically take every shot. NFL quarterbacks handle the football on virtually every offensive snap. The best NHL players get the lion's share of ice time.But in baseball, the best hitters have to wait their turn like everyone else. Ace pitchers are tied to operating in five-man rotations during the regular season. The best bullpen arms can't pitch every day.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Opportunity is spread more evenly, so the influence of star power is relatively limited.It is through that lens in which we can understand some of the appeal behind the so-called "golden at-bat." MLB commissioner Rob Manfred shared the idea when he appeared on <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/manfreds-mlb-magic/id1762692129?i=1000673722835">"The Varsity" podcast with Puck's John Ourand</a> in October, and it was revisited this week by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5961016/2024/12/02/golden-at-bat-rule-mlb/">Jayson Stark of the Athletic</a>."There are a variety of (rule changes) that are being talked about," Manfred told Ourand. "One of them - there was a little buzz around it at an owners' meeting - was the idea of a golden at-bat."<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/567103/cropped_GettyImages-1475185573.jpg?ts=1733267088" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/567103/w220xh124_GettyImages-1475185573.jpg?ts=1733267088 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/567103/w320xh180_GettyImages-1475185573.jpg?ts=1733267088 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/567103/w640xh360_GettyImages-1475185573.jpg?ts=1733267088 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/567103/w768xh432_GettyImages-1475185573.jpg?ts=1733267088 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/567103/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1475185573.jpg?ts=1733267088 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Megan Briggs / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Such a rule would allow a team to send any hitter to the plate at a key moment, even if it's not his turn.Stark reported that variations of the rule are being discussed, such as limiting a golden at-bat to trailing teams or later innings, and how many would be allowed.For now, it's just an idea. Time will tell if a consensus forms among decision-makers.Some will reason that if an NBA team can give the ball to its best scorer and create an isolation opportunity with the final seconds melting off the clock, why not try something like that in baseball?Now, I want to make it clear I am for MLB experimenting. I was <a data-in-app-uri="" href="">in favor</a> of the pitch clock. There was too much time being wasted by both pitchers and hitters, not only between pitches but often between plate appearances. The declining pace of play had become a problem. And there's evidence it was the right decision. Attendance improved in the two years after adding the clock following a nearly two-decade decline at the turnstiles.But MLB still needs to reach more fans and create new ones. The league ceded its place atop the North American sporting hierarchy to the NFL a long time ago, and the NBA's recent national TV deals dwarf baseball's. MLB should try different things.But it shouldn't try the golden at-bat.There are different kinds of rule changes. Some seek to address issues negatively impacting the sport, like the slowing pace of play in MLB. The NBA has had a shot clock since the 1950s, and college basketball finally added one in 1985. MLB enlarged the size of the bases two years ago as well.And then there are rule changes that fundamentally change the nature of the game. Those should only be considered in the case of an existential crisis. Baseball hit such a point in 1968 when, after years of offensive decline, it lowered the height of the mound by two inches for the 1969 season. A golden at-bat would radically change how the game is played, how pitchers work through lineups, and how teams construct their lineups to maximize their best bats. There would be fewer moments for the Bucky Dents of the world.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/0tl7xW4Oxo0?si=R3juLsfhPeoA52dl&amp;start=60" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen=""></iframe></figure>While there have been rule changes that dictate where or how players can perform on the field, from raising and lowering mounds to banning infield shifts, those are uniform changes that affect all teams equally, or nearly equally, and were not meant to change the fundamentals of the game. If anything, the shift ban and pitch clock were implemented to create a game more like the one that was played for most of its history.The golden at-bat would also increase the imbalance between large- and small-budget clubs.Juan Soto is likely to land a record deal in terms of inflation-adjusted dollars this winter. Imagine what he would earn in a world with a golden at-bat? That Soto can only bat once every nine plate appearances is one of the few parity-drivers in the game.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/cropped_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w220xh124_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w320xh180_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w640xh360_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w768xh432_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Newsday / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>A slippery slope is also created when legislation is added to the baseball rule book. What stops the golden at-bat from becoming multiple golden at-bats during the course of a game?Moreover, baseball is rooted in its historical numbers, more than any other sport. Milestones like 500 home runs in a career, or 60 in a season, are benchmarks. If Aaron Judge could bat an additional 150 times per season - and often with runners on base - we would enter a new era of trying to contextualize player performance against the game's history.We must also consider that no one was asking for this. Fans were not clamoring for such a change.Yes, MLB is ultimately an entertainment product. But if the sport wants to make real change, if it wants to attract new fans and bring back old ones, it must confront larger issues - like the financial gulf between the haves and have-nots - rather than resort to gimmicks.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/29303687/related

Fool's gold: Baseball doesn't need the golden at-bat

The Los Angeles Angels were the most aggressive club early this offseason prior to the Dodgers si...

The Los Angeles Angels were the most aggressive club early this offseason prior to the Dodgers signing Blake Snell. Pretty wild stuff, right?It's early - very early! - but the Angels account for four of the 12 free-agent signings to date. They've also made several trades, most notably adding Jorge Soler.But, and I can't stress this enough, why?<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Why are the Angels the aggressors? They're coming off a 99-loss season. There are roster aging, injury-prone players like Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Their farm system remains poor. Shouldn't they be focused on rebuilding, on overhauling their organization?The following is a conversation - with myself - about what the perplexing Angels are up to. <figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/626742/cropped_GettyImages-2148021611.jpg?ts=1732658552" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/626742/w220xh124_GettyImages-2148021611.jpg?ts=1732658552 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/626742/w320xh180_GettyImages-2148021611.jpg?ts=1732658552 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/626742/w640xh360_GettyImages-2148021611.jpg?ts=1732658552 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/626742/w768xh432_GettyImages-2148021611.jpg?ts=1732658552 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/626742/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2148021611.jpg?ts=1732658552 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Icon Sportswire / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Q: Did you have the Angels winning the offseason entering Tuesday?A: I didn't. But it's nice to see a team being aggressive right out of the gate. Some general managers, like Atlanta's Alex Anthopoulos, believe the best opportunities exist early in the offseason, and it was the Braves who traded Soler to the Angels.MLB should welcome more teams trying to compete. But in the Angels' case, the early moves feel like adding empty calories in terms of putting a contender on the field.Q: Are the transactions an indicator of mounting frustration, especially after watching Shohei Ohtani move across town and win a ring? Are the Angels delusional?A: If we squint, there's a modest 2025 bull case for optimists in Orange County. <figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/587484/cropped_GettyImages-1404266551.jpg?ts=1732658418" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/587484/w220xh124_GettyImages-1404266551.jpg?ts=1732658418 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/587484/w320xh180_GettyImages-1404266551.jpg?ts=1732658418 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/587484/w640xh360_GettyImages-1404266551.jpg?ts=1732658418 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/587484/w768xh432_GettyImages-1404266551.jpg?ts=1732658418 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/587484/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1404266551.jpg?ts=1732658418 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>For starters, the Houston Astros are still good but in decline from their MLB superpower status. The Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers are talented but flawed. The A's have no designs on contending, regardless of where they play.The West was the AL's weakest division in 2024 and it may be again in 2025.Los Angeles is also likely to benefit from regression to the mean. We typically hear regression and think "back to earth," but, in this case, because they were so poor on the field last year, they're due to move toward the MLB average.There's one public projection available at the moment (Steamer) and it forecasts that the Angels' returning players will enjoy the second-best WAR improvement compared to their 2024 totals. Good news!Of course, the projection includes 574 plate appearances and star-level performance from Trout, a workload level he hasn't reached since 2019.Hope is required. Mandatory, even. But if one could simulate the 2025 season a thousand times, the Angels would walk away with a few division titles - that's baseball. Significant external help would bolster their long-shot chances, of course.And maybe they know something we don't that explains these moves, something like being contenders for Japanese sensation Roki Sasaki.Q: What can we expect from their additions?A: Not much. They've raised their floor, but it's not enough. Four of their additions - Kevin Newman, Kyle Hendricks, Travis d'Arnaud, and Soler - are projected to combine for 3.9 WAR, so that's a limited improvement. Newman and d'Arnaud should upgrade the bench, but only Soler profiles as a regular.While the investment in Hendricks is modest (one year, $2.5 million), he posted a 5.92 ERA last year and his skills are eroding over multiple seasons.I do like the Yusei Kikuchi signing - he's a quality mid-rotation arm for a hopeful contender. The problem: He's the Angels’ ace. Before his signing, only the Athletics and Colorado Rockies were projected to have weaker rotations. That's a major issue.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738487/cropped_GettyImages-2162183192.jpg?ts=1732658481" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738487/w220xh124_GettyImages-2162183192.jpg?ts=1732658481 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738487/w320xh180_GettyImages-2162183192.jpg?ts=1732658481 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738487/w640xh360_GettyImages-2162183192.jpg?ts=1732658481 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738487/w768xh432_GettyImages-2162183192.jpg?ts=1732658481 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738487/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2162183192.jpg?ts=1732658481 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Cole Burston / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>His contract (three years, $63 million) is a bit of an overpay compared to FanGraphs' estimates (three years, $54 million), but given California's state taxes - and the state of the Angels - they must overpay for free-agent talent. Kikuchi could have trade value, too, assuming L.A. continues to struggle. The Toronto Blue Jays netted a solid return for him as a rental at this past summer's trade deadline.Q: It's easy to dunk on the Angels in recent years, but with so many teams seemingly not interested in competing, shouldn't we welcome and celebrate any effort by clubs?A: Yes. In theory. Unfortunately, it's not clear how serious this contention attempt is. Fan bases shouldn't want misguided efforts that delay a club's return to relevance.A serious win-through-spending effort would look more like what the Rangers did in the 2021-22 offseason. That's when they signed Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, who were at the peak of their star-level powers, to massive free-agent deals. They were core players for Texas' 2023 World Series team a year later. The Dodgers added megastars in free agency in recent offseasons, too.But the Angels aren't courting Juan Soto and/or Corbin Burnes this offseason. They're engaged in half measures, at least to date.What they should be focused on, above all else, is building a healthier organization from top to bottom.They'd be better off in the long run by accumulating more prospects, as much draft capital, and as many bonus dollars as possible. But it's not clear ownership wants to accept a long-term plan.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748597/cropped_GettyImages-1189659341.jpg?ts=1732658450" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748597/w220xh124_GettyImages-1189659341.jpg?ts=1732658450 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748597/w320xh180_GettyImages-1189659341.jpg?ts=1732658450 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748597/w640xh360_GettyImages-1189659341.jpg?ts=1732658450 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748597/w768xh432_GettyImages-1189659341.jpg?ts=1732658450 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748597/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1189659341.jpg?ts=1732658450 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Icon Sportswire / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>For instance, the club would have been better off trading Ohtani in the summer of 2023 - or even earlier - instead of chasing unlikely playoff chances and allowing him to leave for nothing.The Angels haven't demonstrated a willingness to play the long game. At all. Q: So, you don't believe this shortcut is going to work?A: Nope, and the root issue is - again! - their homegrown base isn't strong enough, and it isn't going to get stronger any time soon.Consider their farm-system ranking by MLB Pipeline at the end of each season:<ul>
<li>2022: 30th</li>
<li>2023: 28th</li>
<li>2024: 29th</li>
</ul>Successful teams, even those with top payrolls like the Dodgers, have a strong draft-and-development system as their foundation.Q: So, what you're actually saying is: Free Mike Trout? A: It's a monumental baseball tragedy that one of the best players of this era has reached the postseason once, way back in 2014, when he compiled 15 plate appearances in an ALDS against the Royals.The sad reality: Trout will likely need to wear another uniform for the baseball world to see him on the postseason stage again. The Angels’ plan is unlikely to come together.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/29214998/related

Talking it out: What the heck are the Angels up to?

Whenever a contending large-market team signs a major free agent, there are often concerns and co...

Whenever a contending large-market team signs a major free agent, there are often concerns and complaints about MLB's financial playing field. For many, it feels tilted at a 45-degree angle. Now, winning the hot-stove season often doesn't result in lifting the Commissioner's Trophy. Money spent doesn't guarantee success in modern baseball. That's mostly because, in a sport dependent upon large samples to determine performance level, expanded playoffs is like employing a random number generator to determine a champion.But this time may be different.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757515/cropped_GettyImages-2172703065.jpg?ts=1732726099" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757515/w220xh124_GettyImages-2172703065.jpg?ts=1732726099 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757515/w320xh180_GettyImages-2172703065.jpg?ts=1732726099 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757515/w640xh360_GettyImages-2172703065.jpg?ts=1732726099 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757515/w768xh432_GettyImages-2172703065.jpg?ts=1732726099 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757515/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2172703065.jpg?ts=1732726099 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Brandon Sloter / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The Los Angeles Dodgers added two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell to their rotation Tuesday, agreeing to a five-year, $182-million deal. The nine-figure deal is the fifth issued by the club since the start of last season, matching the rest of MLB.The addition's shaking up baseball.The Dodgers are so overwhelmingly good in every facet of their organization, and so rich, that they may be building the first MLB dynasty of the 21st century.No team's won consecutive titles since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees' three-peat.Consider that the Dodgers are coming off a season in which they won the World Series without Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, and Shohei Ohtani being able to pitch in October. And without Snell, of course.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752994/cropped_GettyImages-2181603937.jpg?ts=1732726030" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752994/w220xh124_GettyImages-2181603937.jpg?ts=1732726030 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752994/w320xh180_GettyImages-2181603937.jpg?ts=1732726030 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752994/w640xh360_GettyImages-2181603937.jpg?ts=1732726030 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752994/w768xh432_GettyImages-2181603937.jpg?ts=1732726030 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752994/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2181603937.jpg?ts=1732726030 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Etienne Laurent / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>They were champions despite using the second-most pitchers in baseball in the regular season due to a rash of injuries. The Dodgers won a title with one arm proverbially tied behind their back last season. They'll likely be healthier on the mound in 2025, and more talented, and they may not be done getting better.In addition to Snell, the club's a considered a favorite to sign Roki Sasaki, perhaps the most talented arm to ever come out of Japan, who's expected to be posted in December.The Dodgers are also among the teams bidding on free agent Juan Soto.They're pulling every lever.They've built an excellent player development system, scout well, and employ a smart front office. On top of all that, they have an ownership group <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3107553" href="https://thescore.com/news/3107553">willing to spend</a> enormous local revenues enjoyed from residing in the No. 2 media market in the United States.And despite all the spending to date, there's plenty more in reserve.Subtract the Dodgers' actual 2024 payroll plus luxury-tax payments from their last full year of revenues estimated by Sportico and the math spits out: $308 million. And that $308-million surplus is equal to or greater than the total revenues of the 10 lowest-revenue clubs in the baseball, according to Sportico's estimates. Making matters worse for the rest of baseball, the Dodgers are engineering a new lever to pull, helping enable some of their spending: extreme amounts of deferred money.Snell's contract reportedly contains $60 million in deferrals, which means the Dodgers have now signed five players to contracts that include nearly a billion dollars - $962 million, to be exact - in deferred money, most notably with Ohtani ($680 million of his $700-million deal is deferred). <figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757549/cropped_GettyImages-2178102984.jpg?ts=1732726131" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757549/w220xh124_GettyImages-2178102984.jpg?ts=1732726131 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757549/w320xh180_GettyImages-2178102984.jpg?ts=1732726131 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757549/w640xh360_GettyImages-2178102984.jpg?ts=1732726131 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757549/w768xh432_GettyImages-2178102984.jpg?ts=1732726131 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757549/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2178102984.jpg?ts=1732726131 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Robert Gauthier / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The strategy has a couple of significant advantages for the club.For starters, the loophole allows them to lower their luxury-tax figures and corresponding tax hits.Ohtani's 10-year, $700-million deal on paper, for instance, is calculated as a $46-million figure for 10 years for luxury-tax accounting purposes, as the deferral payments are discounted for inflation-adjusted value. (The Dodgers are perhaps inspiring a new generation of accountants.)The strategy also means they're paying stars less than their headline contract number.Not only will inflation likely eat away at the value of Ohtani's future earnings, but the Dodgers are only paying him $2 million per year through 2033, while setting aside $44 million in an escrow account each year beginning in 2026 to pay the deferrals. The expectation is the dollars in the escrow account will accrue enough interest to pay off the $68-million payments when they come due.The Dodgers, in other words, may end up only paying $460 million or thereabouts of Ohtani's actual $700 million. The magic of compounding interest will do the rest. They've created financial flexibility in addition to skirting the full brunt of luxury-tax payments through this deferral approach. Players agree to the deferrals ostensibly to join a superteam, and in Ohtani's case, to avoid California state tax when the majority of his payments come due.Everyone's happy in L.A., but that's not the case throughout much of the rest of the sport.The game seems increasingly unfair for many. There could be some pushback. The Dodgers may be pushing the limits on deferrals to such a degree that - combined with their on-field success - the next collective bargaining agreement cracks down on such payments.But the financial imbalance will remain, even if the accounting regarding deferrals changes in future labor agreements.The Dodgers enjoy $334 million in local cable payments per year through 2038 at a time when a number of clubs have lost their previous guaranteed regional sports network deals. While a large chunk of that cable TV sum is placed into revenue sharing - teams place 48% of their local revenues into a pool and split that pie evenly - that $334 million is greater than 15 clubs' total revenues, according to Sportico revenue estimates.The financial gap is already wide and it's growing.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/753161/cropped_GettyImages-2181438596.jpg?ts=1732726204" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/753161/w220xh124_GettyImages-2181438596.jpg?ts=1732726204 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/753161/w320xh180_GettyImages-2181438596.jpg?ts=1732726204 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/753161/w640xh360_GettyImages-2181438596.jpg?ts=1732726204 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/753161/w768xh432_GettyImages-2181438596.jpg?ts=1732726204 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/753161/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2181438596.jpg?ts=1732726204 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Robert Gauthier / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Fans and rival clubs wanting to see a more level financial playing field are likely going to be waiting years, at best, if not for eternity.The MLBPA doesn't want a salary cap, even if it would benefit most players by raising minimum and median salaries. Moreover, there's no mechanism forcing owners to spend more on payroll. (Owners did propose a salary floor in the last CBA but the MLBPA balked when owners demanded more restrictive measures limiting top payrolls.)The Dodgers are a perfect storm. They combine financial might and accounting creativity, along with having imported the best small-market practices post-"Moneyball" and a front office that's also embraced modern player development practices.Add it all up and the Dodgers could be this century's first dynasty.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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The Dodgers are running away from the field - and toward a dynasty

One key subplot this winter transcends any specific player or team interest, instead centered aro...

One key subplot this winter transcends any specific player or team interest, instead centered around someone working behind the scenes - and occasionally in front of the cameras.Uber-agent Scott Boras represents eight of the consensus top 20 free agents, and five at the top of the list: Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Blake Snell, and Pete Alonso.Rarely does one agent have so much influence.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Last offseason, he represented a collection of stars known as the "Boras Five" - Snell, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger, and J.D. Martinez. This year's crop is even more accomplished.How Boras advises his clients this offseason will determine which clubs win and lose in terms of roster improvement, and also whether he enjoys a personal bounce-back performance.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/cropped_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w220xh124_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w320xh180_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w640xh360_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w768xh432_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Newsday / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Boras isn't used to losing, but last winter represented one of the few Ls on his resume.At the start of the offseason, FanGraphs' crowdsourcing predictions forecast the "Boras Five" would sign for a combined $466 million. Those players' actual contracts totaled just $233 million guaranteed.That was a significant and rare miss for Boras, who'd been an outlier in terms of both signing clients to record deals in terms of total dollars and <a href="https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2233897">beating market expectations</a>.Macro-level factors, like the unraveling of the sport's cable TV ecosystem, were at play last winter. Local TV revenues account for about a quarter of team earnings, so that uncertainty likely played a role in reducing the amount spent by clubs, even in Ohtani mania. Spending on free agency last offseason ($2.96 billion), <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/_/year/2024/level/mlb/sort/contract_value">was down</a> nearly a billion dollars from the previous year ($3.9 billion)."(Last offseason) 10 teams decided to lower their budgets from '23," Boras <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/2873740" href="https://thescore.com/news/2873740">told theScore</a> in March when asked about his clients' contract shortfalls. "There was a billion dollars taken out of the free-agent market."What I've done with players like Carlos Correa - when the markets are not there, we got him a three-year guarantee for about $100 million (in 2022). He took a contract with optionality (a first-year opt-out)," Boras explained. "The very next market, they were spending, and there was more demand for his services. He ended up getting a contract for $200 million with a chance to make an additional $70 million. He converted a situation with optionality into something that more than doubled the value (of the 2022 deal)."<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/459603/cropped_GettyImages-1189431308.jpg?ts=1732143000" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/459603/w220xh124_GettyImages-1189431308.jpg?ts=1732143000 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/459603/w320xh180_GettyImages-1189431308.jpg?ts=1732143000 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/459603/w640xh360_GettyImages-1189431308.jpg?ts=1732143000 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/459603/w768xh432_GettyImages-1189431308.jpg?ts=1732143000 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/459603/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1189431308.jpg?ts=1732143000 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mike Stobe / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Snell is pursuing a path similar to Correa's. He opted out of the deal he signed last March, when he was coming off winning the NL Cy Young Award, to test the waters again. (Snell and Boras turned down a $150-million offer from the Yankees last winter before settling for a shorter-term deal with the Giants.)Bellinger, on the other hand, elected to remain with the Cubs for 2025. Not everyone trusts there will be a market rebound, and Bellinger is coming off a so-so campaign.Perhaps the market conditions have improved. There's less uncertainty related to regional television deals, but many clubs have taken smaller payouts to stay with Diamond Sports Group now that it's exited bankruptcy. Others are striking out on their own in partnership with MLB.It'll be interesting to see if Boras' approach is any different. He's certainly not lowering his initial demands.Ken Rosenthal reported Boras is seeking a guarantee for Bregman north of $300 million, nearly double what FanGraphs expects ($162 million).But the big question remains how long Boras is willing to advise his clients to wait, especially after irking Montgomery last offseason and losing him as a client.Boras, historically, is comfortable playing the waiting game, and generally plays it well."People call me all the time and say, 'Man, your players aren't signed yet.' Well, it doesn't really matter what time dinner is when you're the steak," Boras said in 2013.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756230/cropped_GettyImages-2164302699.jpg?ts=1732142913" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756230/w220xh124_GettyImages-2164302699.jpg?ts=1732142913 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756230/w320xh180_GettyImages-2164302699.jpg?ts=1732142913 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756230/w640xh360_GettyImages-2164302699.jpg?ts=1732142913 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756230/w768xh432_GettyImages-2164302699.jpg?ts=1732142913 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756230/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2164302699.jpg?ts=1732142913 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mitchell Leff / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>During the 2018-19 offseason, Boras client Bryce Harper, along with Manny Machado, were the last two under-26 stars to hit the open market before Soto. Machado and Harper didn't sign until after spring training camps opened. They became the first free agents to sign $300-million deals.But they were steaks.When that approach falters, players are squeezed. The melting offseason clock favors clubs more and more as spring training camps open.Last winter, Montgomery was worth more than the one-year, $25-million deal with a $22.5-million option he signed with Arizona in late March. Public forecasts had him signing for more than $100 million. He blamed the late start to his preparation for his down campaign. After the worst year of his career, he exercised the option rather than hit free agency again.Montgomery later fired Boras <a href="https://www.bostonherald.com/2024/08/23/ex-red-sox-target-jordan-montgomery-says-boras-kind-of-butchered-his-free-agency/">and told the</a> Boston Herald he felt Boras "kind of butchered" his free agency.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742310/cropped_GettyImages-2159447898.jpg?ts=1732142866" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742310/w220xh124_GettyImages-2159447898.jpg?ts=1732142866 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742310/w320xh180_GettyImages-2159447898.jpg?ts=1732142866 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742310/w640xh360_GettyImages-2159447898.jpg?ts=1732142866 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742310/w768xh432_GettyImages-2159447898.jpg?ts=1732142866 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742310/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2159447898.jpg?ts=1732142866 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Rich Schultz / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>There was a lot of squeezing in the market last offseason, in part because of Boras.The first 60 days of last offseason featured 44 free agent signings, well short of the previous 10-year average of 58.7. The guaranteed number of seasons awarded (97) was also below the 10-year average of 116 for the first two months of the offseason. And the market never warmed up.But will Boras change his approach? Will teams be more aggressive with large-revenue clubs like the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, and perhaps the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox, seemingly incentivized to improve their rosters? And how will things change if Soto signs early, as the industry expects? It'll be a fascinating offseason. Free-agent players as a whole need a rebound, and so, too, does the game's top agent.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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Scott Boras controls this offseason

There was an immediate shift in sentiment among many Pittsburgh Pirates fans when Paul Skenes was...

There was an immediate shift in sentiment among many Pittsburgh Pirates fans when Paul Skenes was named the NL Rookie of the Year on Monday.On social media, long-suffering fans pivoted from, "Cool, our player won an award!" to "Wait a second, we just lost a year of club control over our best pitcher!"Many Pirates fans likely learned Monday night about new incentives in the collective bargaining agreement designed to reduce service-time suppression - a practice long employed by the Pirates and other clubs.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>The new provision allows for players who finish in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting to earn a full year of service time if they didn't already qualify. That matters because players need six full years of service to become free agents and typically three years to become eligible for arbitration.Skenes spent 142 days on the major-league roster, short of the 172 needed to qualify for a full year of service time. The award gives him the bump.Skenes now projects to enter the free-agent market after the 2029 season instead of after the 2030 campaign, as would have been the case under previous CBAs.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Skenes' timeline" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-bR9U0" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/bR9U0/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="293" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637485/cropped_GettyImages-2160130335.jpg?ts=1732055948" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637485/w220xh124_GettyImages-2160130335.jpg?ts=1732055948 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637485/w320xh180_GettyImages-2160130335.jpg?ts=1732055948 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637485/w640xh360_GettyImages-2160130335.jpg?ts=1732055948 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637485/w768xh432_GettyImages-2160130335.jpg?ts=1732055948 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637485/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2160130335.jpg?ts=1732055948 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Todd Kirkland / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The intent of the new CBA provision is good: reduce service-time suppression, reward excellent young players, and incentivize clubs to promote top young talent to the majors sooner (more on that in a moment).But the new rule also adds a little more divide to the already huge gulf between large- and small-market clubs. For the first time in history, service time to reach free agency can be altered in the players' favor. Pittsburgh fans are already counting down the days remaining because they know Pirates management under owner Bob Nutting could trade Skenes before his club control expires, something the team did with Gerrit Cole following the 2017 season. Small-market baseball fans are well aware of the expiration date on star players' time with their clubs. There are no mechanisms forcing owners to spend to a salary floor, and dramatic differences in local revenues typically determine which teams spend on the open market.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/cropped_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w220xh124_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w320xh180_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w640xh360_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w768xh432_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Justin K. Aller / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>As for the club incentive in relation to the new CBA provision, it can be debated as to whether the Pirates mishandled the situation.If a player wins Rookie of the Year or finishes in the top three of MVP or Cy Young voting prior to reaching arbitration, a team can receive a draft pick awarded following the first round.The MLBPA wants promising young players to get to free agency sooner, and the union worked with MLB on creating a carrot to accomplish that.But the player must be ranked as a top-100 prospect by two of three rankings lists - Baseball America, ESPN, or MLB Pipeline - and have been on the MLB roster for at least 172 days during their rookie season to qualify.Because Skenes didn't debut until early May, the Pirates didn't qualify for that reward. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Baltimore Orioles earned the bonus in 2023 when Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson won their respective league's Rookie of the Year award.On a pure talent basis, there was no reason for Skenes not to be on the Opening Day roster. He was perhaps the Pirates' best pitching option the day he signed in 2023 after being the first overall pick out of LSU, and Pittsburgh's starting staff was thin this past spring.But it's tricky with young pitchers. Position-player prospects aren't subject to the same workload and injury concerns of the modern game as young pitchers. That makes it easier for clubs to have confidence in adding them to early-season rosters, like with Carroll and Henderson.The Pirates wanted to manage Skenes' innings workload in 2024, and Skenes said he benefited from spending 27 innings in Triple-A early this season. Whether they could have managed his workload at the major-league level can be debated.If the Pirates had been mostly focused on trying to limit his service time, they would have promoted him later in the season after <a href="https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/super-two">Super Two eligibility</a> had passed. Skenes' 142 days in the majors in 2024 would have made him Super Two eligible regardless of Rookie of the Year results.One rival executive said there "would be pressure" with his club to make sure a likely ROY candidate who was a top prospect, like Skenes, would be eligible for the compensation draft pick.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738918/cropped_GettyImages-2159130001.jpg?ts=1732057945" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738918/w220xh124_GettyImages-2159130001.jpg?ts=1732057945 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738918/w320xh180_GettyImages-2159130001.jpg?ts=1732057945 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738918/w640xh360_GettyImages-2159130001.jpg?ts=1732057945 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738918/w768xh432_GettyImages-2159130001.jpg?ts=1732057945 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738918/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2159130001.jpg?ts=1732057945 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Icon Sportswire / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Whatever the case, the delayed debut cost the Pirates a draft pick.The Skenes situation raises this question: Could teams delay the arrival of young arms to ensure they're ready for a full workload once they're added to an Opening Day roster so the club can ensure it qualifies for draft-pick compensation? Or are young arms so fragile in the modern era that teams wouldn't want to risk wasting pitches in the minors if the arm is MLB-ready, even on an innings limit? It will be worth monitoring whether clubs change their behavior.As Pirates fans digested all this Monday night, as the looming threat of losing Skenes accelerated by a year, some wondered why the CBA contained a service-time bonus that's decided by a sportswriters' vote.The decision was collectively bargained between players and owners in 2022. An alternative idea of relying on WAR measurements to determine qualifying status was discussed, but the Rookie of the Year vote was ultimately decided as the arbiter.Monday's award voting is ultimately a big win for Skenes and young stars like him, a victory for the MLBPA, and the cause of mixed feelings for some Pittsburgh fans.Keeping Skenes in Pittsburgh long term would require a different owner or a much different CBA. Neither one of those scenarios is likely. The big takeaway? Enjoy Skenes while you can, Pittsburgh.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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Skenes' rookie award traps Pirates in uncomfortable situation

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