Errol Spence Jr. vs. Shawn Porter: Preview and best bets

Errol Spence Jr. will face Shawn Porter in a welterweight title unification fight Saturday night. Despite both boxers coming into the bout as champions, oddsmakers believe one has a clear edge in this matchup.

Odds

While this looks like a close fight on paper, the 29-year-old Spence (-1100) is a huge favorite over the 31-year-old Porter (+550). Spence certainly deserves to be the favorite, but -1100 seems too high given Porter's track record. Look for the odds on Spence to shorten as we get closer to the fight. Bettors love to take a live underdog in boxing, and Porter will likely draw money when a majority of the bets come in on Saturday.

If you like Spence but don't want to lay the long odds, consider taking him to win by decision or knockout. Spence to win by decision is -140 and he's +200 to win by KO or TKO. Porter is +750 to win by decision and +1600 to win by KO or TKO. Odds that the fight ends in a draw are +2300.

Matchup

Spence comes into this bout a perfect 25-0 with 21 of those wins coming by knockout. He's ranked as the sixth-best pound-for-pound boxer in the world by Ring Magazine. Against Porter, he owns a 2-inch height advantage and more than a 4-inch reach edge. However, it's hard to justify Spence being such a large favorite given the level of competition he's faced to date. He defeated Mikey Garcia in his last fight, but Garcia was stepping up in weight. Otherwise, Spence's biggest victories came over Lamont Peterson, Carlos Ocampo, and Kell Brook, with the latter actually owning a victory over Porter. Still, Porter's style makes him Spence's most dangerous opponent thus far in his career.

Porter is coming off an uninspiring split-decision win over Yordenis Ugas, although he probably didn't deserve to get the nod. Porter had issues making weight for that fight and didn't seem all that interested in facing Ugas from the start.

However, compared to Spence, there's no question Porter has faced stronger opponents. At 30-2-1, he owns wins over Danny Garcia, Adrien Broner, Andre Berto, Paulie Malignaggi, Devon Alexander, and Adrian Granados. The two blemishes on Porter's resume are close losses to Brook and Keith Thurman. The latter bout was voted "Fight of the Year" in 2016 by Premier Boxing Champions.

Overall, while Spence hasn't faced the same level of competition as Porter, he's the bigger, younger, faster, and more talented fighter. That tends to matter in boxing, which is why oddsmakers made the former such a heavy favorite. Porter will try to stay inside and turn this into a rough fight, while Spence will use his long reach advantage and try to outbox the smaller Porter.

Best bets

Porter will be a stiff test for Spence and it won't be a shock to see him win some of the early rounds. However, Spence's talent will ultimately win out, as he'll use his reach and wear down the smaller Porter in the latter rounds. Instead of laying -1100, though, the best bet is Spence -140 to win by decision. Porter is a tough guy and he's yet to be knocked out, so he should be standing at the final bell.

Meanwhile, the fight to end in a draw is listed at +2300. Given the unpredictable outcome of bouts these days and the fact that Porter could steal some early rounds, that's worth a small wager as well.

Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.