Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz preview: Top storylines, prediction

In a matter of days, Jake Paul and Nate Diaz will square off in one of the biggest fights of the year.

Paul, the YouTuber turned prizefighter, and Diaz, the former UFC star, are scheduled to meet in a 10-round boxing match Saturday night in Dallas. It's the main event of a highly anticipated pay-per-view card on DAZN and ESPN+.

Here are the biggest storylines heading into the matchup, plus a prediction of who wins.

Will the fight be a commercial success?

Paul-Diaz was announced in April. These days, in combat sports, it's rare for a fight to have that long to simmer. Often, fights are booked a couple of months in advance - maybe even less. But with Paul-Diaz, you could tell the folks in charge knew what they were doing. There was a trailer ready to go and a press conference in the works. Paul, Diaz, and their respective teams wanted this fight to be a big deal. Of course, it would be no matter what - Paul and Diaz are two of the biggest names in combat sports. But four months was a great amount of time to promote the fight and get fans excited to hopefully maximize pay-per-view sales.

To be honest, though, now that we're a couple of days away, there's less buzz than expected. Paul will be the first to say that the promotion of the fight hasn't gone how he thought it would. This is the first time Paul is facing a true A-side - and this should feel much bigger than the Tommy Fury, Anderson Silva, Tyron Woodley, and Ben Askren fights. But Paul has been quite upset about Diaz's lack of effort to put this fight on the radar of MMA and boxing fans. The reaction to their first press conference in May was mixed, and Diaz went mostly radio silent throughout his training camp. Paul has tried to get Diaz to talk trash to generate interest, but Diaz does things his way. He doesn't like being told what to do.

It was announced earlier this week that the pay-per-view will also be available on ESPN+, which might increase sales. But it seems far from guaranteed that Paul-Diaz will be a huge box-office success as initially expected. Whether or not it meets expectations in that department could come down to how Paul, Diaz, and Co. execute the final fight-week media push, including Thursday afternoon's press conference and the weigh-ins on Friday.

Has Paul learned from the Fury loss?

Paul is coming off his first career loss, a split decision against Fury in February. For young fighters like Paul, that first defeat is often vital in making improvements. It shows them they aren't invincible and where they need to sharpen their tools.

When Paul knocked out Woodley and Askren, he likely walked away feeling good - but not necessarily with a real learning experience. Against Fury, Paul was clearly the worse boxer. Fury controlled the range and picked him apart. Fury, after all, is considered more of a real boxer than Paul. It showed.

Over the last six months, Paul and his team have hopefully used the Fury fight to determine where he went wrong, to fill in the gaps, and to become a better boxer.

What happens if Paul loses again?

Paul's adviser and business partner, Nakisa Bidarian, was blunt in a recent interview with ESPN's Marc Raimondi about what's at stake in the fight, saying Paul may retire from boxing if he loses to Diaz. Bidarian, who used to be a UFC executive, is the co-founder of Paul's Most Valuable Promotions and has helped Paul become one of the biggest draws in combat sports.

Even before Bidarian made it known that retirement is a possibility, it was clear that this is basically a must-win fight for Paul; a loss could be detrimental to his boxing career. People were captivated by the social media influencer from the beginning largely because they wanted to see how far he could take this - how long he could keep winning and keep impressing. That went away once Paul lost to Fury. He's still popular, but the fascination about whether Paul could be a legitimate boxer has all but disappeared.

There'll always be a certain demographic of people who tune in to see Paul compete no matter what. But if Paul loses to a smaller, older fighter in Diaz as a heavy betting favorite, that could be it for the widespread attention he's gotten over the last three years - at least in the boxing world. That could be it for this boxing experiment.

Could Paul and Diaz do a rematch in MMA?

There's an offer on the table for Diaz to rematch Paul in MMA under the PFL banner after they square off in the boxing ring. Diaz's representative, Zach Rosenfield, confirmed to Raimondi that Paul and the PFL have offered Diaz $10 million for the potential fight, and Diaz told Raimondi that he could be open to it.

But there's not much of a chance of that happening if Diaz wins on Saturday - only if Paul wins.

If Diaz pulls off the upset, he'll likely ride that momentum back into the UFC and try to set up a long-awaited trilogy bout against Conor McGregor. Why would he want to fight Paul in MMA - Diaz's territory - when he already beat him in boxing? Generally, that's not who Diaz is. He wants challenges.

If Paul wins, it's not out of the realm of possibility that we see them meet in the MMA cage one day. Paul, who signed a deal with the PFL in January and is an equity owner of that promotion, is planning to make his MMA debut in 2024. He'll want a big-name opponent for his first fight. And the story sells itself: After beating Diaz in boxing, can Paul come to Diaz's sport and make it 2-0 against the Stockton native?

It might be Diaz's best option, too. There'll always be demand for the third McGregor fight, but if he loses to Paul in devastating fashion, an offer from the UFC may not be nearly as lucrative.

Who wins?

The fight between Paul and Diaz will be closer than the odds indicate because Diaz - even at 38 years old - is crafty on the feet and has great cardiovascular endurance. But Paul will use his size and power to his advantage and take home a convincing decision win.