109th Grey Cup primer: Can Argos stop Bombers from cementing dynasty?

The 109th Grey Cup between the Toronto Argonauts and Winnipeg Blue Bombers is a championship rematch 72 years in the making and one that is somehow, in a nine-team league, incredibly rare. These two historic franchises have played each other for Lord Grey's chalice just six times. Their last meeting was the infamous "Mud Bowl" of 1950 - about eight years before the CFL officially formed. Back then, the East and West Divisions were separate leagues, and amateur teams were still allowed to compete for Lord Grey's chalice. So yeah, some things have changed since.

The uniqueness of Argos-Bombers is just one factor that makes this year's "Grand National Drunk" so intriguing. Two disciples of Ricky Ray will face off at quarterback, and both lead electric offenses. Toronto wants to pull off an upset and win its seventh consecutive Grey Cup appearance dating to 1991. Winnipeg, the class of the league, has dynasty status squarely in its sights. And while it might not be muddy Sunday, the weather will again factor into an Argos-Bombers Grey Cup because it'll be very cold.

Here's everything you need to know about the 109th Grey Cup ahead of Sunday's showdown.

109th Grey Cup: The basics

When: Sunday, Nov. 20, 2022, at 6 p.m. ET
Where: Mosaic Stadium in Regina, Saskatchewan (fourth Grey Cup hosted by Regina; first at this stadium)
Who: Toronto Argonauts (24th Grey Cup appearance) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (27th)
TV: TSN; RDS (French); ESPN2 (United States)
Line: Winnipeg -6
Over/Under: 47.5 points
Weather: Minus-4 degrees Celsius (feels like minus-10), 15 km/h winds

Tale of the tape

* indicates CFL-leading stat during regular season

**indicates tie for CFL-leading stat

How they got here

Argonauts: Expectations were high after the Boatmen made some splashy offseason acquisitions, but that didn't initially translate to success. Their inconsistent play was a storyline in the campaign's first half, and several important players missed significant time with injuries. Still, the Argos weathered those early storms and found a groove down the stretch, winning seven of their last nine games to pull away atop the East. Toronto's East Final win over the Montreal Alouettes in front of a raucous BMO Field crowd not only avenged last year's crushing playoff loss to the Hamilton Tiger-Cats but was also the team's most complete performance of the season.

Blue Bombers: Winnipeg tore through the league again despite losing several key members of its back-to-back Grey Cup-winning teams. The club won its first nine games and clinched a playoff spot on Labor Day weekend. Zach Collaros repeated as MOP, Outstanding Rookie winner Dalton Schoen became the second straight Bomber to lead the league in receiving, and the defense continued to shine. Nathan Rourke gave it his best shot in the West Final, but the Bombers proved too powerful, snuffing out a late BC Lions drive to clinch their third straight Grey Cup berth.

Previous meeting

The Argos and Blue Bombers met just once this season - July 4 in Toronto. In a thrilling early-season contest, the Boatmen nearly erased a 14-point halftime deficit with a remarkable fourth quarter. McLeod Bethel-Thompson looked to have forced overtime when he found Markeith Ambles in the end zone with 30 seconds left. However, Boris Bede missed the extra point to give Winnipeg a 23-22 win.

5 storylines to follow

Harris looks for revenge

The Blue Bombers and Andrew Harris are both looking to three-peat, although Harris is trying to get his in a different shade of blue.

Though Harris was instrumental in his hometown team's back-to-back championships, Winnipeg chose to move on. "I just felt I was unwanted," Harris said in February about his contract negotiations with Winnipeg shortly after his shocking move east.

The 35-year-old's first season in Toronto wasn't smooth. A torn pectoral muscle in August left his season and career in doubt. But Harris returned last week and proved effective in the East Final, scoring his first touchdown in double blue. Perhaps he knew revenge was near.

Now, Harris has his chance. He's on fresh legs for the Grey Cup, having played just one game since Aug. 13. He already burned the Bombers once this year, rushing for 111 yards and adding 13 receiving yards when the teams met in July. A victory would give Harris the ultimate one-up: a personal three-peat. If he gets revenge, you can bet it'll be as cold and ruthless as a winter night in Winnipeg.

Pound the rock

If the current forecast holds (and there's no reason to think it won't), the running game will be critical for both sides. Here, the Blue Bombers could hold a significant advantage. Toronto had the fewest rushing yards, attempts, and touchdowns in the league during the regular season, while Winnipeg's defense allowed just eight rushing touchdowns.

The Argonauts must find a way to stop, or at least contain, Brady Oliveira. The Winnipeg native's emergence last year allowed the Bombers to let Harris walk, and Oliveira repaid their faith with a dominant 1,000-yard season. Toronto's excellent linebackers could play a role in its plan to stop Oliveira, especially if the Argos dress only seven defensive linemen again. But to reach him, the defense has to break up that blue wall that is Winnipeg's O-line. If Oliveira gets going, it could be lights out on the Argos.

But the Boatmen have a new unique backfield weapon: the two-headed monster. Harris and A.J. Ouellette, who earned an East Division All-Star nod as Harris' injury replacement, worked perfectly together during the East Final, splitting the load for 163 total yards from scrimmage. Both scored touchdowns - Harris on the ground and Ouellette through the air. The Bombers are obviously capable of neutralizing this new look. However, Winnipeg won't have much film to study since this will be just the second time Toronto deploys these dual-back schemes.

The Argos may be a pass-heavy team with loads of talented receivers, but their key to victory lies with the two-headed monster. The chances of an upset will rise if they can replicate last week's performance.

McLeod's redemption

What a journey it's been for Bethel-Thompson, whose decade wandering the football world has finally brought him to a championship game. After splitting his NCAA career between UCLA and Sacramento State, the San Francisco native began a pro football odyssey that's included stints in arena football, the United Football League, and an array of NFL practice squads. He even suited up for the Blue Bombers for a hot minute before joining the Argos in 2017.

Bethel-Thompson, now 34, won a Grey Cup as Ricky Ray's backup in 2017, but it took Toronto another five years to fully trust him as a starter. He prevailed over Ray's presumed heir, James Franklin, in a two-year battle, then stole back the No. 1 job from Nick Arbuckle (who was summarily banished to Edmonton) partway through the last campaign. Even this season, his rocky start had fans screaming for high-profile backup Chad Kelly. But once again, Bethel-Thompson held on, kept grinding, and ended up as the league's leading passer.

It's never going to be easy with Bethel-Thompson. When he's off - see the 2021 East Final or this year's brutal performances against Calgary and BC - it can look quite ugly. He doesn't run much. He's had several dustups on the sidelines. But when he's on, he's actually pretty darn good. Last week's near-flawless East Final performance finally cemented his place in Argos lore and showed the world that Bethel-Thompson is a capable and winning QB.

So please, a little respect for Bethel-Thompson, one of football's ultimate fighters who's about to get his moment on the biggest stage. Win or lose Sunday, he's earned this shot. And it might be foolish to keep doubting him.

Critical injuries

Both the Argos and Blue Bombers enter the weekend with potentially significant ailments that could impact the results.

Toronto will likely be without All-Star linebacker Wynton McManis. The Argos' Outstanding Defensive Player nominee enjoyed a dominant season before suffering a knee injury in October. He briefly returned for the East Final but left the game early with an arm injury and hasn't practiced in Regina. Toronto has depth at linebacker, but losing McManis would be a devastating blow to its hopes of an upset. The Memphis native has emerged as a leader on Corey Mace's defense and would be critical to their game plan against a dynamic Bombers attack.

In Winnipeg, it's all about Collaros' ankle. The reigning MOP suffered the injury late in the West Final and spent the last series of the game on the bench. Collaros hasn't practiced this week, but head coach Mike O'Shea confirmed Thursday that he'll start the Grey Cup.

But things could get hairy if Collaros isn't at 100% and the ankle limits his mobility even slightly. If he can't roll out of the pocket as quickly, perhaps Ja'Gared Davis - playing in his sixth consecutive Grey Cup game - gets the extra second he needs to break through the line and reach him. Collaros is a good enough quarterback to power through this, and he may be fine, but even the slightest sign of a limp Sunday will sound alarm bells across Manitoba.

History beckons

Even in a nine-team league, winning three consecutive championships is a feat that feels next to impossible. But that's exactly what Mike O'Shea's Blue Bombers are 60 minutes away from doing.

Warren Moon's Edmonton Eskimos are the only team to accomplish the modern CFL three-peat, winning five in a row from 1978-82. Few expected to see that level of Canadian sports royalty again. What makes these Blue Bombers so remarkable is that they're doing it in a salary-capped league and without the same kind of roster continuity that Edmonton had.

Winnipeg lost eight critical members this past offseason from its two previous championship rosters. That list includes three players who got NFL opportunities, last year's leading receiver Kenny Lawler, and of course, Harris. And still, the train kept rolling. Rookie Dalton Schoen replaced Lawler's league-leading production. Oliveira trampled all over everybody on the ground. And the defense repeated as the CFL's best. Yet again, Winnipeg rolled through the West with ease.

The Argos would disagree, but the Blue Bombers have been so relentlessly dominant that, in some ways, it feels pre-ordained. It just doesn't seem like Winnipeg will ever wilt in the moment. Expect the Bombers to come out like a house on fire because they're playing for more than a Grey Cup. The history books beckon.

Prediction

These Argos are good and perhaps even underestimated. They have the talent and weapons to make this game close and competitive and maybe even win. But the Blue Bombers are on a different level and will ultimately hold them off. Blue Bombers 31, Argonauts 24