K League Matchday 2 betting preview: Back Sangju as 'dog
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I told you we'd have fun.
The K League returned in spectacular fashion last weekend, and we made it count in a big way. We finished 3-0-1 with our picks, netting the $100 bettor $430 in profits. And that was just the first set of games.
We've got another full slate to digest on Matchday 2, and I don't know about you, but I'm keen to turn that money into more money.
Gangwon FC (+110) at Sangju Sangmu (+225), Draw (+250)
This line is way off and a massive overreaction to one game. On Matchday 1, Sangju were ripped apart 4-0 at Ulsan Hyundai, while Gangwon picked up an impressive 3-1 win at home to Seoul. But Sangju are a very different team on home soil, where they were considerably better in 2019. They've won six of their last nine league matches at Sangju CIvic Stadium while scoring at least two goals in seven of those contests.
They should have no issue maintaining that attacking consistency against a Gangwon side that's conceded at least two goals in seven of their last 10 contests away from home. The visitors have tasted defeat in six of their previous seven road fixtures - winless in 10 - and lost both visits to Sangju last season.
Pick: Sangju 0.0, +0.5 (-109), Sangju (+225)
Ulsan Hyundai (-110) at Suwon Bluewings (+300), Draw (+240)
Jeonbuk Motors may be considered by oddsmakers to be the best side in the K League, but I'm heavily invested in Ulsan futures (+400), as I consider them to be the league's top club. They are going to score an obscene number of goals this season after bolstering what was already the division's top attack with striker Bjorn Johnsen. There's a ton to like about Ulsan, and if there's one thing we know for certain it's that they'll never be short on goals.
They were the league's highest-scoring side away from home last season but paid the price defensively due to their free-flowing style. Of Ulsan's last 16 road matches, 13 have produced over 2.5 goals. They won all three visits to Suwon in 2019 (2-0, 3-1, 2-1), and while there is value in their moneyline, I feel more comfortable in backing the over here, with Ulsan to win and both teams to score being offered at +333.
Pick: Over 2.5 (+106)
Gwangju FC (+275) at FC Seoul (-106), Draw (+240)
Gwangju were promoted from K League 2 ahead of this season, but even against inferior competition they still leaked goals away from home; they conceded 17 times in their last eight on the road. That doesn't bode well as they get set to visit a Seoul side that was nearly the league's highest-scoring club at home last season.
The hosts conceded a bunch as well, playing out a number of highly entertaining fixtures at Seoul World Cup Stadium. With both sides equally capable of finding the back of the net while struggling to keep goals out, I expect fireworks Sunday. The last seven meetings between these sides have seen a staggering 28 goals, with the over 2.5 hitting in each of them. Make it eight in a row.
Pick: Over 2.5 (-105)
Incheon United (+210) at Seongnam FC (+115), Draw (+230)
Both of these sides take pride in their defensive ability, while neither are very capable in attack. Seongnam remain one of the division's lowest-scoring clubs, while Incheon tend to conform to their opponents' style. In this case, we should expect to see them come out in their defensive shell, with both teams keen to sit back and wait for their opportunity to pounce.
The four meetings between these sides last season produced a combined total of two goals - finishing 0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 0-1. Dating back to 2014, just three of their last 15 meetings have produced more than one goal.
Pick: Under 2 (-104)
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.