Premier League: Odds to be best promoted team

The 2022-23 English Premier League season is just two weeks away from kickoff.

Which of the EPL's three newest teams figures to separate themselves from the pack in hopes of avoiding relegation? Let's get into just that.

Fulham are favored to have the best season of the promoted group, and it's not hard to see why.

They were absolute monsters in the EFL Championship last season, leading the charge in wins (27), goals (106), and goal differential (plus-63), in many cases by wide margins. For example, no other team scored 75 goals.

The underlying metrics suggest Fulham were every bit as good as the table indicated. They led the Championship in expected goals, generating 2.07 per fixture. Only one other team averaged more than 1.70. In simple terms, Fulham's offensive process was very sound. They generated chances better than anybody and deserved to score goals in bunches.

Fulham's defense was very stout as well. They conceded only 1.11 expected goals per game, second to only West Brom (1.10). The club also finished with an extremely healthy net of plus-0.96 xG per contest.

They lost a couple of key members in Andre Zambo Anguissa and Fabio Carvalho. However, Fulham spent well over $32 million on more than capable replacements in Joao Palhinha and Andreas Pereira, so they should still be in great shape.

Nottingham Forest finished 10 points back of Fulham, and their goal differential was 30 goals less. They were well below the league winners, which their expected goal differential (plus-0.16 per game) reflects.

While Fulham are bringing the band back together and banking on continuity to help take the next step, Nottingham have gone with a much different approach.

They've been extremely active on the transfer market, spending nearly $90 million to bolster their side. Taiwo Awoniyi and Neco Williams were the biggest expenditures, with both costing well over $20 million.

Nottingham also added notable freebies like Jesse Lingard (free transfer) and goalkeeper Dean Henderson (loan) from Manchester United.

The club certainly has the talent to put up a good fight to stay up. How well - and how fast - all the new pieces come together will go a long way toward deciding their fate.

Lastly, we have Bournemouth. Their xG process (plus-0.39 per) was among the best in the Championship this past season, with the club ranking top five in expected goal generation and prevention.

Even so, they lagged well behind Fulham in terms of xG. They'll have a tough time catching Fulham considering last season's leaders lapped Bournemouth in xG and spent to upgrade their roster. Besting Nottingham might be difficult with their boosts as well.

The oddsmakers likely have this one right. Bournemouth will struggle to best either of the promoted sides, let alone those already established in the EPL. They don't appear to have the firepower to keep up.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.