Saturday's EPL value bets: Wolves to beat Arsenal, aid top-4 push

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There were some interesting midweek results, and hopefully you profited. While a couple of Wednesday's draws didn't come through, I stressed playing Everton on the PK and West Ham +1, both of which came through relatively comfortably.

If you took advantage, you've got some nice bankroll heading into Matchday 33, which begins with five games Saturday. Let's break down the best bets from those fixtures.

Brighton (+130) at Norwich City (+200), Draw (+215)

While nothing is confirmed yet, Championship football beckons for Norwich next season. There's still time for a desperation push from the Canaries, but they've got to make up seven points and jump three teams with just six matches left this season. All they can do is take it one game at a time, as the big picture feels like an overwhelming task.

Norwich were ripped apart in Wednesday's defeat to Arsenal, but, truthfully, they were right in the game late in the first half when a Tim Krul howler gifted the Gunners the lead. The Alexander Tettey experiment at center-back went miserably, but the Canaries will get a big boost in defense as Timm Klose returns to partner with Ben Godfrey.

The hosts should be a bit rested despite the short turnaround, with Emiliano Buendia, Josip Drmic, Onel Hernandez, and Teemu Pukki all being limited to just a half against Arsenal, Marco Stiepermann and Mario Vrancic playing even less, and Ondrej Duda sitting out entirely.

Expect a strong response from Norwich, who played quite well in their last two matches at Carrow Road, narrowly losing to an in-form Everton side and pushing Manchester United to extra time in the FA Cup. Now, they get a Brighton side that's been sharp since the restart, but the reason the Seagulls are still in relegation trouble is that they don't win many games.

Brighton have won five matches this season against sides not named Arsenal, and just one away from home. Graham Potter's team is a nuisance to play against, but Brighton's inability to turn those performances into victories has them sitting just six points above the drop. Against a desperate Norwich side, they'll have to settle for another draw Saturday.

Pick: Draw (+215)

Arsenal (+190) at Wolverhampton (+125), Draw (+220)

Don't let the fact that Arsenal have won two league games in a row distract you from the fact that they're in a real bad way right now. It's not Mikel Arteta's fault, either. This has been brewing for some time and it's going to take quite the overhaul to get the Gunners back to where they need to be.

Wins over Norwich and Southampton have invigorated Arsenal's European hopes, but there's little reason for optimism in north London. Alex McCarthy gifted them the lead at St. Mary's, and there was nothing tricky about a home date with a Canaries side that was down to one center-back. A visit to Molineux will be an entirely different challenge for the Gunners.

Wolves are in impeccable form at the moment, winning all three matches since the restart. They're now just two points back of the top four as the prospect of playing Champions League football next season becomes increasingly realistic, and it would be no less than they deserve.

Nuno Espirito Santo's side will be well-rested coming into this match following a full week off since its last game. That is far from the case for the Gunners, who will be playing their fourth game in 10 days and their sixth match since the restart. For Wolves, this will be just their second game in 10 days and their fourth since the restart.

Wolves are the more talented, rested, and organized side. They go out every match with a cohesive and concise plan of attack, which is something that can't be said for the Gunners. Arsenal will have to be at their very best to get anything from this match, but tired legs will prevent them from putting together a strong 90 minutes, and Wolves are too good not to make them pay.

Pick: Wolves (+125)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.