2023 Formula 1 predictions: Title winner, biggest surprises, and more
Formula 1 returns with this weekend's Bahrain Grand Prix, and theScore is getting ready for the wheel-to-wheel action with a series of predictions for the 2023 season.
Biggest surprises 😱
Nesci: Infighting at Red Bull scuppers title push. Yes, I know, this is very fanciful, especially after Max Verstappen looked largely untouchable in preseason testing. It's always difficult to judge true performance from the three-day test as teams run different engine modes and fuel loads, but the RB19, much like its dominant predecessor, appears to be well clear of the competition. Heck, even the Red Bull brass couldn't hide its enthusiasm, embracing the team's status as an overwhelming favorite going into the season instead of downplaying its edge over the field. But the rumblings of discontent that started to emerge from Sergio Perez's side of the garage last season can't be dismissed out of hand. Perez felt belittled by Verstappen, despite his immense efforts in helping both the Dutchman and the Milton Keynes-based outfit achieve success in recent years. With rumors about his future not going away, the seeds have been planted for some fireworks within the team. Whether they come to fruition - and whether either Ferrari or Mercedes can get their act together and take advantage - remain to be seen.
Wile: George Russell takes another big leap and separates himself as Mercedes' No. 1 driver - both on and off the track - in 2023. The 25-year-old showed enormous potential during his time with Williams, and that ability only shone brighter during his rookie year in the W13. Russell managed eight podiums and the first race win of his career last season while also collecting 11 other top-five finishes - a remarkable achievement considering the issues Mercedes had with its car and the weight of expectations Russell had driving alongside Lewis Hamilton. He proved he belongs in the seat and is willing to get his elbows out to fight for results. That drive, talent, and determination will all factor into a second-place finish in the drivers' standings after placing fourth in 2022.
Valente: Aston Martin finishes as best of the rest. While preseason results can sometimes be fool's gold, it's hard not to be optimistic about Aston Martin. The AMR23 has looked seriously impressive, especially with Fernando Alonso behind the wheel. After experimenting with more than a few changes to the car last year, the Silverstone-based team seems to have designed a serious challenger in 2023.
Bradburn: Alfa Romeo leads the midfield. Preseason testing is showing that spending caps and car design seem to actually be creating parity. While Red Bull appears to be in a class of its own once again, the competition at the top of the grid could involve four different teams, with Mercedes and Ferrari returning to prominence and Aston Martin - as Valente notes - impressing as well. The other car that looks to be taking a massive leap forward, though, is the Alfa, with sophomore Zhou Guanyu gaining more confidence and routinely outperforming the Alpines of Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon, the McLarens of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, as well as the bottomfeeders at Williams, Haas, and AlphaTauri. There's an obvious danger in reading too much into those results. But if Guanyu can routinely outperform Aston's Lance Stroll and Alfa Romeo can address early reliability issues, then ever-dependable Valtteri Bottas leading the team to an easy fifth-place finish in the constructors' standings might be too conservative.
Biggest disappointments 😔
Nesci: McLaren. To be considered a "disappointment," you need to have genuine expectations going into a season. The Woking-based team certainly checks that box. Norris is firmly established as one of the best drivers on the planet, and new teammate Piastri, replacing Daniel Ricciardo, arrives amid huge intrigue and excitement after McLaren won the dramatic tug-of-war with Alpine for his services. The 21-year-old captured titles in F3 and F2 in consecutive years during his prestigious junior career, a feat only matched on the current grid by Leclerc and Russell. But McLaren struggled mightily during testing. After admitting that some development targets were missed on the MCL60, the orange-clad team was hampered by a variety of issues during the three-day test, ultimately recording just 312 laps, the fewest of any squad. Particularly for Piastri, a rookie who hasn't raced since 2021, the lack of reps was a clear setback. There's so much to like about McLaren, but unless the planned early-season upgrade package provides a big boost, it could be a rough start to the campaign.
Bradburn: Ferrari struggles to finish third in the constructors'. It's not a massive disappointment or anything, but Ferrari should have its sights set on double championships now. Frederic Vasseur, who replaces the ousted Mattia Binotto after a gaffe-filled 2022 season, brings plenty of experience and knows how to work with Leclerc. But larger issues are holding Ferrari back, and Mercedes seems poised to play spoiler. Heck, Ferrari might even find it difficult to compete with Aston at times.
Valente: Despite a return to its black livery, Mercedes will fail to resemble anything close to its dominant predecessors. Even with new rules in place designed to bring the field closer together, Mercedes is reminded that jumping back into championship contention doesn't just happen overnight. While Hamilton and Russell may fight at the top more often than last season, the Silver Arrows will rank third in the standings again.
Wile: Verstappen cruises to another easy championship, and the lack of a real title fight kills some of the excitement for the final races of the season. Red Bull and the two-time champ were too dominant last year, and that carries over to another season. While Verstappen won't win a record 15 races this time around, he is still a lock for a podium every Sunday. What I would give to go back to the 2021 Abu Dhabi GP and re-live the first 55 laps of the race to feel the excitement of a real title race before things went screwy.
Driver moves going into 2024 🔄
Bradburn: Red Bull ends its relationship with Checo. Perez will land on his feet with another constructor; he's routinely been one of the best and most underappreciated drivers on the grid. But last year's spat with Verstappen all but sealed his fate with the team, and it opens up arguably the most coveted seat in the sport. Could Ricciardo impress enough as the team's reserve driver to win back his old chair? Could Yuki Tsunoda or Nyck de Vries make waves at AlphaTauri that earn them a promotion? Or could a strong showing at Williams pave the way for Alex Albon's return? There are a lot of options.
Nesci: Mick Schumacher returns. Once "silly season" arrives and the inevitable game of musical chairs begins, there'll be an open seat for Schumacher, who'll serve as a reserve driver for Mercedes this season after spending two tumultuous years at Haas. The 23-year-old, who says there has already been "interest" in his services looking ahead to 2024, should have several options. For one, his role at Mercedes immediately creates a potential pipeline to Williams. Sauber, currently operating under the Alfa Romeo banner, will soon join forces with German manufacturer Audi ahead of the latter's F1 debut in 2026. How quickly and aggressively will Audi push new Sauber CEO Andreas Seidl to find a German driver? Even though Mick made some high-profile - and expensive - mistakes at Haas, the allure of the Schumacher name can't be overstated, especially for a team with German connections. AlphaTauri could be an option, too, particularly after team boss Franz Tost admitted he was interested in signing Schumacher. That may be the least likely outcome, especially with Red Bull having six junior drivers in F2 this season eyeing a leap to the top level. But one way or another, expect Schumacher to be behind the wheel of an F1 car once again next year.
Valente: AlphaTauri ditches Tsunoda for IndyCar Series star Colton Herta. Red Bull clearly has its eye on Herta after showing interest in bringing him to its sister team last year before the FIA denied his Super License request due to a lack of points. He'll still need the required amount of Super License points to make the move, but if he hits the mark, 2023 could be Tsunoda's swan song in F1. Tsunoda has struggled with consistency since being promoted to AlphaTauri, further highlighting Red Bull's lack of quality talent coming from its pipeline in recent years, though Herta's arrival could alleviate that.
Wile: Lawrence Stroll's commitment to his son Lance's future in F1 will reach a crossroads. With Aston Martin making significant improvements to the car, it will need a more accomplished driver to partner alongside Alonso. Stroll has regressed significantly since nabbing two podium finishes in 2020. He only managed to score points in eight races last season (18 points total), failing to crack the top five in any race and finishing 19 points behind teammate Sebastian Vettel. If Aston Martin wants to take the team into the future and compete at the top of the grid, it will need both drivers to score consistent points every race, and Stroll hasn't shown the capability to do that.
Miscellaneous predictions 🔮
Bradburn: Nico Hulkenberg finally gets his podium finish. Look, there's no real reason to believe this. The Haas car doesn't look especially good in testing, but the team at least looks like it could fall into some midfield finishes throughout the year. The American manufacturer also has three grand prix in its home country, which might provide some sort of boost. Hulkenberg currently sits at a record 181 entries without a podium finish. Let this mercifully be the year he finally crosses the line third.
Nesci: Jamie Chadwick takes part in FP1 session for Williams. The 24-year-old British driver is set to embark on her maiden season in Indy NXT after winning three consecutive titles in the W Series, the all-female racing championship established in 2019 to provide a concrete pathway for women to compete in Formula 1. Despite her new adventure in the United States, Chadwick will remain with the Williams Driver Academy this year. "Having the opportunity to immerse myself within the team and keep that Formula 1 dream alive is very important," she said. It's been eight years since Susie Wolff took part in a grand prix practice session and 46 years since Italian driver Lella Lombardi took part in a Formula 1 race. Chadwick is the most obvious candidate to follow in those footsteps.
Valente: Alonso wins his first race in a decade. The wait is finally over for the 41-year-old, who'll capture his first F1 victory since the 2013 Spanish Grand Prix. After being cursed throughout his career with poor team choices, Alonso is rewarded with his move to Aston Martin, which shocks the grid with a competitive race car. 2023 will be a reminder that Father Time works fast, but Alonso drives faster.
Wile: Las Vegas freaking rules. Formula 1 has really pushed American expansion, so it'll be no surprise when the Las Vegas GP is absolutely incredible. The weekend of the inaugural Miami GP was a lot of fun - even if the race itself was a bit underwhelming - but it'll have nothing on the spectacle that'll come in Sin City. The 50-lap street circuit is expected to be high speed and should look great on television as cars cruise down the Las Vegas Strip at night - a nice way to spend the penultimate race of the season.