2025 Formula 1 predictions: Sizing up the new season

Formula 1 returns with this weekend's Australian Grand Prix. theScore editors Michael Bradburn, Gianluca Nesci, Daniel Valente, Sarah Wallace, and Brandon Wile get us ready with a series of predictions for the 2025 season.

Bradburn: For the first time since 2007 and the ninth eighth time for the all-time great, a Ferrari driver will win the championship. There are lots of reasons to bet on McLaren dominating or even Verstappen maintaining his hold. But Hamilton has the unquantifiable aura right now to break the record and end the Prancing Horse's slump.

Nesci: McLaren is currently the class of the field, but Ferrari is dedicating significant resources - more than most teams - to this year's car. The motivation is clear: giving Hamilton his record-breaking eighth title in storybook fashion. Romance isn't dead just yet.

Valente: Formula 1 crowns a new champion as Norris beats out Leclerc to claim his first world title. After falling short in 2024, the British driver elevates his game, eliminating the missteps he flashed last season.

Wallace: McLaren builds on last year's successes and finishes 1-2 in the drivers' championship. It'll be the team's first 1-2 finish since Alain Prost and Ayrton Senna took top honors in 1989.

Wile: Leclerc's serious momentum from the end of 2024 - he claimed two wins and eight podiums over the final 11 races - carries into 2025 and helps him capture his first drivers' championship. Meanwhile, even with a worse car, Verstappen is too talented to finish any lower than second.

Bradburn: It'll be tough to defeat defending champ McLaren, which certainly has the pace, but the tifosi can't be denied. Leclerc has stated it's his goal to win the championship this year, and Ferrari didn't bring in Hamilton just to support that endeavor.

Nesci: Building off last season's battle at the top, this has the potential to be one of the tightest constructor fights in recent memory. Ferrari has the more talented driver pairing, but McLaren, with its superior machinery, will do just enough to retain the crown.

Valente: The field is once again competitive, but McLaren brings the most consistent and track-friendly car. Norris and Piastri are in their best form yet as they secure the Woking factory its second straight constructors' championship.

Wallace: Consistent cars and seasoned drivers help McLaren seize the constructors' championship. Toto Wolff's gamble on rookie Kimi Antonelli will also pay off: An outstanding performance from the 18-year-old will help Mercedes edge out Ferrari for second spot.

Wile: While there might be some early growing pains with Hamilton, Ferrari reaps the benefits of arguably the most talented pairing on the grid and wins its first constructors' title since 2008. McLaren finishes a close second in a battle that goes down to the final race.

Biggest surprises 😱

Bradburn: Williams makes a huge leap and finishes sixth in the constructors' standings. Led by the perennially overlooked Carlos Sainz, James Vowles' team starts looking like a legitimate threat for regular points finishes. Williams' stated goal is to start looking legitimately competitive in 2026 and winning in 2028, but its growth begins now. And that starts with staking a claim to the midfield behind only Ferrari, McLaren, Red Bull, Mercedes, and Aston Martin.

Nesci: Piastri outperforms Norris at McLaren. For good reason, the latter is the far more popular pick to end Verstappen's reign this season. But in 2024, Piastri showed he's capable of not just fighting alongside but beating his teammate - to the consternation of some within McLaren (Papaya rules!). The calm and composed Australian, now going into his third season in F1, is arguably steadier in the cockpit than Norris, who has a higher ceiling but can be more volatile.

Valente: It turns out to be Verstappen's last season at Red Bull. Yes, he has a deal until 2028, but there are always exit clauses. With the RB21 proving to be a huge disappointment, the four-time champion is able to trigger a way out. But where will he end up? There have been rumors about Aston Martin, but it's interesting that neither current Mercedes driver is signed through 2026. Perhaps Wolff will finally get the driver he attempted to lure to Mercedes over a decade ago.

Wallace: There's a reason Wolff wanted to expedite the process for Antonelli to get his FIA Super License last season. The rookie turns out to be the perfect replacement for Hamilton and outperforms George Russell. Antonelli might take a few races to get acclimated, but by season's end, he'll look like a seasoned veteran.

Wile: One of the six rookies on the 2025 grid - the most since 2001 - will claim a race win this season. I'm not expecting any of Antonelli, Oliver Bearman, Jack Doohan, Liam Lawson, Gabriel Bortoleto, or Isack Hadjar to match Hamilton's rookie record of four wins, but one of these men will stand on top of the podium at some point on the 24-race calendar.

Biggest disappointments 😔

Bradburn: Russell races himself out of his seat at Mercedes. Wolff hasn't had to be ruthless in a few years, but Hamilton's exit means Russell is no longer insulated from criticism. The Brit must perform. If he doesn't, Wolff can't waste time searching for Mercedes' next superstar.

Nesci: Cadillac's driver selections underwhelm. The American team, finally given the green light to join the grid in 2026, will solidify its driver lineup well before the calendar flips. One of the 2025 season's most enticing elements is the exceptional, unpredictable rookie class, but instead of keeping that energy for its inaugural campaign, it's possible - perhaps even very likely - that Cadillac allocates at least one seat to a familiar face with F1 experience. Understandable, but it would be far more interesting if the General Motors-backed team swings for the fences.

Valente: Things go from bad to worse for Red Bull. The 2022 and 2023 constructors' champions might reduce the peakiness that cursed the RB20 by expanding the RB21's operating window. But while the Milton Keynes team searched for a more stable platform, McLaren and the others focused on pure speed. The other drivers tee off on Verstappen, who stands no chance of defending his drivers' title, and Red Bull finishes fourth.

Wallace: Lawson turns out to be Sergio Perez 2.0 - a chronic disappointment in one of the best cars on the grid. Red Bull doesn't have the same incentives to be patient with the New Zealander, and scrutiny will mount quickly if Lawson doesn't perform. Don't be surprised if Lawson joins the likes of Pierre Gasly as a Red Bull driver who was demoted before season's end.

Wile: One of the best parts of F1 is the unfiltered emotion that we get over team radio and in the driver debriefs. The FIA's threats to fine or ban drivers for swearing or criticizing the governing body are counterproductive. We've already seen drivers be highly critical of these rules - for good reason - and some have shut down during their media sessions in protest. The hope is that the FIA comes to its senses and allows drivers to be their authentic selves. It's in the best interest of the sport, and it'll be an embarrassment for F1 and a disservice to fans if a driver misses a race because of swearing.

Miscellaneous predictions 🔮

Bradburn: Hamilton becomes Pope. His bulldog Roscoe is knighted. It's amazing what can happen if you break Michael Schumacher's record while driving a Ferrari.

Nesci: Verstappen is suspended for one race. The four-time champion accrued eight penalty points on his Super License after a flurry of incidents last year. Accumulating 12 points within a 12-month span triggers a one-race ban, so he'll need to keep it clean early in the season. With the RB21 getting reeled in by the field, the Dutchman will have to engage in on-track battles more frequently. Expect some fireworks, especially when he renews hostilities with Russell.

Valente: Norris finishes with 13-plus poles, putting him among the top five in F1 history for most poles in a season. The British driver was responsible for eight of the 15 poles from the 2024 Spanish Grand Prix to the end of last season. With an even greater car advantage and his teammate struggling to match him again, Norris emphasizes his one-lap excellence.

Wallace: What's another F1 season without some Alpine drama? Sure, the car looked pretty decent in testing and is likely fighting for the best of the rest. But despite the encouraging preseason, rookie driver Doohan will get off to a slow start. Alpine will replace him with reserve driver Franco Colapinto before the summer break in order to fight for vital constructors' championship points.

Wile: Carlos Sainz will tell you otherwise, but don't be completely shocked when the Spaniard lands on the podium in his first season with Williams. (For whatever it's worth, Sainz and Albon looked great during preseason testing in Bahrain.) Although Vowles is more focused on nailing the new regulations that kick in for 2026, his team boasts its best driver lineup in years. With a little luck on his side, Sainz will secure Williams' first podium since Russell in 2021.