F1 season betting preview: Can Norris end Verstappen's dominance?
The 2025 Formula 1 season begins Sunday with the Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne, kicking off what's expected to be one of the most competitive championship races in recent years.
Max Verstappen claimed his fourth straight world championship last season but only won three of the schedule's final 15 races. The once-dominant Red Bull car is no longer considered the fastest on the grid, as McLaren will look to defend the constructors' championship as the betting favorite.
McLaren's rise positions Lando Norris as the preseason favorite to win the drivers' championship, priced at +160 (38.5% implied probability) at theScore Bet/ESPN Bet.
Norris earned his first career Grand Prix victory last year in Miami, then added three more to his resume by season's end to finish second behind Verstappen. Norris' odds to win at least seven races in 2025 are +130 (43.5% implied probability).
Verstappen is the second favorite to win the drivers' championship at +325 (23.5% implied probability), a massive drop from last year when he entered the season as the -400 favorite (80% implied probability).
Drivers' championship
| Driver | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Lando Norris | McLaren | +160 |
| Max Verstappen | Red Bull | +325 |
| Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | +475 |
| Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | +550 |
| Oscar Piastri | McLaren | +750 |
| George Russell | Mercedes | +1400 |
| Liam Lawson | Red Bull | +6500 |
| Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | +8000 |
| Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | +8000 |
| Alex Albon | Williams | +10000 |
| Carlos Sainz | Williams | +10000 |
| Pierre Gasly | Alpine | +15000 |
| Esteban Ocon | Haas | +40000 |
| Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | +50000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | Racing Bulls | +50000 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | Kick Sauber | +100000 |
| Isack Hadjar | Racing Bulls | +100000 |
| Jack Doohan | Alpine | +100000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | Kick Sauber | +100000 |
| Oliver Bearman | Haas | +100000 |
The oddsboard indicates that five drivers - Norris, Verstappen, Charles Leclerc, Lewis Hamilton, and Oscar Piastri - have at least an 11% chance of winning the drivers' championship, a level of parity rarely seen in Formula 1.
It remains unclear who Ferrari will prioritize - if any - between Leclerc and Hamilton, which is why they're neck-and-neck on the oddsboard. Ferrari is expected to compete for the constructors' championship, and one of these men should have a stronger chance of winning the drivers' title than their odds suggest – it's just a matter of who.
It's hard to envision Leclerc taking a back seat to Hamilton after being Ferrari's No. 1 driver for the past four seasons. At the same time, Ferrari wouldn't make the splashy Hamilton signing to have him second in the pecking order.
Leclerc is -215 in a head-to-head against Hamilton for the season, meaning oddsmakers think there's roughly a 68% chance the Monegasque driver remains Ferrari's top option.
If you believe McLaren has the best car for 2025, Piastri may be the best value on the board at +750. He could outperform Norris early in the season, forcing McLaren to switch its focus to the Australian, whom it signed to a multi-year extension earlier this week.
The betting market doesn't love George Russell's chances of contending in his first year as Mercedes' top driver. Russell is +1400 to win the drivers' championship, which would be surprising based on where Mercedes is expected to finish in the constructors' standings.
Constructors' championship
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| McLaren | +100 |
| Ferrari | +125 |
| Red Bull Racing | +550 |
| Mercedes | +1400 |
| Aston Martin | +10000 |
| Williams | +15000 |
| Alpine | +25000 |
| Haas | +50000 |
| Racing Bulls | +50000 |
| Kick Sauber | +75000 |
The constructors' crown appears to be a two-horse race between McLaren (+100) and Ferrari (+125). Both teams have two drivers who can win races and compete for a podium position whenever they get behind the wheel.
Red Bull is at +550, but given that its second driver is Liam Lawson, this could be a repeat of last year, when Verstappen continually battled for a podium while the No. 2 Red Bull driver struggled to score points.
Even if Red Bull isn't in the mix for the constructors' championship, Verstappen will be in the hunt for a fifth world championship alongside the two McLaren and two Ferrari drivers. That should set the stage for an incredible season.