Bundesliga relegation odds: Who's headed down?
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With the Bundesliga set to resume its campaign next week, clubs situated near the bottom of the table are suddenly feeling the pressure as they look to stave off relegation.
The table's bottom two clubs are relegated to 2. Bundesliga at the end of each season. The 16th-placed club, meanwhile, enters a two-legged playoff with the second division's third-place team, with the winner earning a spot in the top flight next season.
In other words, two clubs are guaranteed to be relegated, while a third gets an extra chance to save itself. Here's how the bottom of the table looks ahead of the league's return.
| POS. | TEAM | POINTS |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Union Berlin | 30 |
| 12 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 28 |
| 13 | Hertha Berlin | 28 |
| 14 | Augsburg | 27 |
| 15 | Mainz | 26 |
| 16 | Fortuna Dusseldorf | 22 |
| 17 | Werder Bremen | 18 |
| 18 | Paderborn | 16 |
Here's who oddsmakers like to be relegated at season's end.
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Paderborn | -3333 |
| Werder Bremen | -250 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf | -140 |
| Mainz | +300 |
| Augsburg | +800 |
| Hertha Berlin | +1000 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | +5000 |
| Union Berlin | +5000 |
Let's examine the prospects of a few select sides.
Paderborn
With a minimum of six points to recover over the final nine matches, Paderborn are truly hanging by a thread. The fact they'll play three of the four clubs directly ahead of them in the table provides a glimmer of hope, but the schedule still has its hurdles. Paderborn have just one draw and four defeats against top-four clubs this season, and they must still face three such opponents. This side has neither the opportunity nor the talent to pull off a great escape this season.
Werder Bremen
With a game in hand over the rest of the competition, Bremen are in a somewhat advantageous position. But has the damage already been done? They must make up four points to give themselves a shot at survival, and eight to guarantee it. With just one win from 11 home matches this season, Bremen might benefit from having no fans in the stadium; friendly crowds evidently weren't giving them any sort of advantage over the rest of the top-flight clubs. A schedule still featuring matches against five of the top seven clubs is far from ideal, but there's still a lot of talent in this side. Matches against Paderborn and Mainz will be huge. If they can build a bit of momentum in those contests, survival is certainly well within reach. Don't back Bremen to go down at such a short price.
Fortuna Dusseldorf
Should Bremen win their extra game, there's suddenly just one point between them and Fortuna - and the race to avoid a bottom-two finish drastically intensifies. The remaining schedule isn't kind for Uwe Rosler's side, either: They still face have matches against each of the top three teams, including trips to Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig. Fortuna had built some nice momentum before the season was suspended, losing just one of their last six league matches. This unexpected break might have done the club more harm than good.
Mainz
Mainz's hopes of staving off relegation will come down to home dates with Augsburg and Werder Bremen. Beating the clubs around them in the table will give them enough of a leash to finish above the bottom three, but losing those tilts would be disastrous. They've lost four of their last five league matches at home to Bremen and four of their last five Bundesliga fixtures against Augsburg - regardless of venue - so perhaps there's some reason to panic here. That's especially true given that Mainz also still play at home to RB Leipzig, and away to Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen. There could be some value here at +300, though I'd prefer a slightly longer price.
Augsburg
Even at +800, it's hard to feel any sort of confidence playing Augsburg in this market. They have the easiest remaining schedule among relegation-threatened clubs, with just one of their final nine matches coming against a side currently in the top five. They'll avoid all the league's giants and should be able to scrape together enough points to ensure their safety.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.