Two key myths about Mourinho's so-called 'trophy drought'

Earlier today, Jose Mourinho went on something of a rant in defense of his career since joining Real Madrid in 2010. He said:

“I'm going to tell you something about my career. In 2010, I reached the maximum of my career, I won everything. This is the maximum. In the first season, I won the cup against the best team in the world, I finished second to the best team in the world, and lost the semi-final to best team in the world, then we won the league against the best team in the world, with all the records. We lost in the semi-finals of the Champions League [against Bayern] when two of the best penalty-takers in the world missed penalties. The next season, we beat Barca in all the big matches, and lost the Champions League semi-final by one goal. In my fourth season, I go to Champions League semi-final, I fight for title until last moment, so these are four bad seasons of my career? I got wrong by doing year after year like nobody else did. You arrive into a level where finish second is not good, semi-final is not good. I'm guilty of that [being judged by higher standards], and I'm proud to be guilty of that.”

There is no doubt that Mourinho is a hypocrite, a show artist, a self-aggrandizing ego case who loves nothing more than bending the arc of truth in his favour.

Yet unfortunately, hypocrites are sometimes also afforded the luxury of being right.

Here are two key misconceptions about Mourinho’s recent record.

Myth: Mourinho’s failure to win any trophy since 2012 is a sign he’s become a poor manager.

Fact: Though there have been countless studies which demonstrate the influence of luck (well, variance) in deciding individual football matches, in addition to studies into the fortunate nature of goal-scoring, we need only think about this in logical terms.

Consider Jose Mourinho’s record in the Champions League. His teams have made the semifinals for the last four consecutive seasons including this one, not an insignificant feat. As Mourinho mentions, his defeats in those matches sometimes came down to single goals or penalties. Even this week’s loss to Atletico featured a Chelsea shot off the woodwork in a game where they outshot the opposition 16 to 13 (though didn’t get as many on target, which analysis shows is influenced by random variation anyway).

As for the league, while Real Madrid finished behind Barcelona by 15 points in 2012-13, they won the league in 2011-12, and in the season before that finished a single win and draw behind Barcelona, earning 92 points to their 96.

You can reverse engineer a tale in which an unlucky bounce or Eden Hazard’s failure to track back against Atletico is the result of managerial incompetence, and many people driven by their dislike of Mourinho often do. Yet these margins are close enough and luck influential enough in single games to question whether it’s smart to blame the manager for one loss and not praise him for the preceding wins.

Myth: Mourinho’s teams should have won more trophies because of how much they spent on players.

Fact: What are we talking about here? If we’re talking about total wages across world football, Real Madrid were second behind Manchester City in wage spending in 2013, second behind Barcelona in 2012, second behind Barcelona in 2011 (we don’t know this season’s figures yet). I don’t think this was the result of Mourinho’s arrival at the club, however.

Mourinho however was presumably responsible for player transfers, both in and out. If we focus on transfer fee expenditures alone, Real Madrid were top of the league in transfer spending in 2010-11, Mourinho's first season at the club. Yet across Europe, their transfer total that season was lower than the transfer spending of Man City, Chelsea, and Liverpool.

After 2010-11 though, Mourinho’s team spending drops even further. From 2011-12 to the current season Mourinho’s teams have ranked fourth, first, and third in transfer expenditures in La Liga. Once you account for revenue for player sales however, their transfer balance drops even further to second, tenth and third respectively.  

Mourinho manages big spending teams no doubt (good managers generally do), but they’ve often been outspent by other European sides, in some cases by teams that have performed far worse in their leagues and in European competition. Keep in mind too that wage bills are much more market efficient, meaning they change depending on player merit. They are an after-the-fact reflection of the quality of Mourinho’s teams.