Playoff Probabilities: Projections & elimination numbers

Playoff Probabilities: Projections & elimination numbers

theScore staff
10 years ago
Hannah Foslien / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Every Monday until the end of the regular season, we'll compile the latest projections and playoff probabilities from around the league.

Note: Division (DIV%), playoffs (POFF%), rest-of-season winning percentage (rosW%), and wild-card (WC%) probabilities are calculated by FanGraphs.

Courtesy of MLB.com, an elimination number is the combination of wins (by the first-place team) and losses (of the trailing team) that will eliminate the trailing team from winning the division or wild card. The elimination number for the second-place team is the "magic number" for the first-place team. "E" indicates the team has been eliminated from winning the division or wild card.

AL EAST

TEAM DIV% POFF% rosW% E#
TOR 51.8 91.4 .543 -
BOS 42.6 89 .563 26
BAL 5.4 37.2 .494 24
NYY 0.2 2.6 .456 21
TB 0.0 0.0 .488 9

AL CENTRAL

TEAM DIV% POFF% rosW% E#
CLE 94.0 99.2 .564 E
DET 5.9 57.0 .533 22
KC 0.1 2.6 .484 18
CWS 0.0 0.0 .465 13
MIN 0.0 0.0 .442 E

AL WEST

TEAM DIV% POFF% rosW% E#
TEX 99.6 99.9 .538 -
HOU 0.3 18.3 .516 17
SEA 0.0 2.6 .517 14
LAA 0.0 0.0 .465 6
OAK 0.0 0.0 .456 3

AL WILD CARD

TEAM WC% WCE#
BOS 46.4 -
BAL 31.8 -
DET 51.2 -
HOU 18.0 25
NYY 2.5 24
KC 2.5 23
SEA 2.5 22

NL EAST

TEAM DIV% POFF% rosW% E#
WAS 99.8 100.0 .612 E
NYM 0.2 45.5 .544 18
MIA 0.0 3.0 .484 15
PHI 0.0 0.0 .405 8
ATL 0.0 0.0 .436 1

NL CENTRAL

TEAM DIV% POFF% rosW% E#
CHC 100.0 100.0 .602 -
STL 0.0 57.9 .527 11
PIT 0.0 8.3 .503 8
MIL 0.0 0.0 .409 E
CIN 0.0 0.0 .456 E

NL WEST

TEAM DIV% POFF% rosW% E#
LAD 81.1 98.9 .570 -
SF 18.9 86.0 .554 24
COL 0.0 0.5 .493 16
ARI 0.0 0.0 .472 9
SD 0.0 0.0 .391 7

NL WILD CARD

TEAM WC% WCE#
SF 67.1 -
STL 57.9 -
NYM 45.2 26
PIT 8.3 25
MIA 3.0 23
COL 0.5 21
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