Re-tooled Blue Jays aren't endangered yet

As Troy Tulowitzki's foul popup settled into Carlos Santana's glove for the final out of Game 5 of the ALCS back in October, denying Toronto passage to the World Series for a second straight season, the Blue Jays immediately shifted from win-now mode into something much more nebulous. Given the circumstances, many reasonable people suspected it was curtains for the upstart juggernaut that had enraptured a city and country ever since Alex Anthopoulos went bananas at the 2015 non-waiver trade deadline.

Jose Bautista, the franchise cornerstone standing on second base when Tulowitzki doinked that season-ending popup, was headed for free agency, and so too was Edwin Encarnacion, set for a handsome payday. With those two out the door, and too many tumbleweeds down on the farm, the intentions of this newly installed front office - distrusted by a large chunk of the fan base despite a solid first year in power - were unclear. Even with Josh Donaldson under contract for two more years and quite a bit of veteran talent still in place, maybe it was time to look to the future.

Like a frigid winter wind ripping down Spadina Avenue, a thought had Toronto fans shaking in their boots: Maybe the Blue Jays missed their chance.

Four months later, the front office doesn't think so. Chalk it up to a potentially meddling ownership, a desire not to alienate the 3.4 million fans that ambled through the turnstiles a year ago, genuine confidence in the talent leftover from 2016, or all of the above, but after Encarnacion rejected their take-it-or-leave-it offer of $80 million over four years, the Blue Jays' front office rolled up their sleeves, whipped out the crowbar and the crazy glue, and did their best to prop that competitive window open for at least one more summer.

"We have a team that we expect to be contending," Ross Atkins, the Blue Jays' general manager, said during a recent interview, according to Robert Macleod of the National Post. "We also have some volatility in our players that things could go very, very well and we could be an exceptional team."

Skepticism is understandable, even if that spiel came from someone not responsible for putting this roster together. With the first official workout for pitchers and catchers looming, it really looks like Justin Smoak is going to get the bulk of the playing time at first base - a notion seemingly in conflict with any expectation of contending - while the tentative left-field platoon of Ezequiel Carrera and Melvin Upton Jr., might actually be improved if Charlie Sheen, the star of "Platoon" (1986), started against right-handed pitching.

The rest of Toronto's lineup, meanwhile, could be charitably characterized as post-prime, with the exceptions of Kevin Pillar, the 14th-worst qualified hitter (87 wRC+) in baseball over the last two seasons, and Devon Travis, a promising young hitter seemingly held together by popsicle sticks. Bautista, one season removed from a .913 OPS (145 OPS+), re-upped with Toronto when he couldn't find a multi-year offer worth signing this offseason; Tulowitzki, since undergoing hip surgery in 2014, has been a league-average hitter; Russell Martin needed two extra months of spring training to get ready for the season - he hit .197/.259/.272 through May; newcomer Kendrys Morales, who only generates value in the batter's box, hit worse than Elvis Andrus in 2016; and it's not crazy to suggest that Donaldson, now 31, has already authored the finest season of his career.

Still, working in concert with a surprisingly awesome rotation, this creaky core of players, plus Encarnacion and minus Morales, earned 89 wins and a spot in the American League wild-card game last summer, and fell just two wins shy, by the way, of their expected 91-71 record, derived from their run differential. And though Blue Jays fans have spent all winter bemoaning the fact that their favorite parrot has migrated to Cleveland, it's salient to remember that: A) regression isn't linear; B) their entire rotation is coming back; and C) this front office has made several important additions this winter that will help Toronto recoup the marginal wins lost by Encarnacion's (and Brett Cecil's) departure.

Detractors may prattle on about the opportunity cost of using up twice as many roster spots to recoup those wins, but the Blue Jays now have the offensive reinforcements and bullpen help they needed to keep up with the Boston Red Sox, and also have a handful of assets that are much more disposable come July, should the team flop. It wouldn't take much nudging to get a contender to add Howell to their payroll for the stretch run. The same can't necessarily be said about Cecil, who's getting upwards of $7 million per season through 2020.

But unloading at the trade deadline is the contingency plan. For now, even with an alarming lack of depth and serious issues at the bottom of their lineup, the Blue Jays look, objectively, fine, and they might even be really good, if certain things go their way. Just ask Atkins.

"... if we get a complete year out of Devon Travis, a complete year out of Jose Bautista, a complete year out of Steve Pearce, a healthy Kendrys Morales," said Atkins, "if we get a similar performance out of our starting pitching and feel great about the additions we've made to our bullpen, then we'll be a very, very good team."

That isn't spin or wishful thinking so much as a reasonable projection. Even if the bulk of their players perform closer to their tenth-percentile - i.e. least optimistic - PECOTA projections, the Blue Jays aren't going to be some unwatchable mess in 2017. But with so much variability in terms of health and possible positive regression from their core players, playing time at certain positions, and potential growth from their young stars, there's a non-zero chance Toronto will actually be a very, very good team, one capable of competing with the Red Sox for a division title.

And speaking of Boston, the presumptive 2017 AL East champions, maybe let's temper our expectations just a teensy bit for a team set to hit Pablo Sandoval, Mitch Moreland, and either Sandy Leon or Blake Swihart at the bottom of their lineup. Their rotation is bananas, without a doubt, and Dave Dombrowski did a fine job restocking his bullpen, too, but a step backwards from Mookie Betts and/or Hanley Ramirez could leave Boston's offense, the best in the league last year, sputtering a bit.

2017 Projections

Projections are for nerds, and Travis is going to get hurt, and Tulowitzki isn't that good anymore, and yada-yada-yada. Still, only three teams had six or more position players accrue at least 2.4 WAR last year, according to Baseball Reference: the St. Louis Cardinals (86-76), Boston Red Sox (93-69), and Chicago Cubs (103-58). (And, again, that's just the position players; the Blue Jays also have a rotation fronted by AL ERA champion Aaron Sanchez; Marcus Stroman, who posted a 3.24 ERA and 3.90 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his final 13 starts of 2016; and newly minted All-Star Marco Estrada).

"We feel great about the team coming into 2017," Atkins said Monday during an appearance on Prime Time Sports on The Fan 590.

Most general managers are confident, publicly, at least, in the middle of February, but Atkins - free of the sentimental attachment to Encarnacion that's preventing a lot of fans from recognizing his strong work this offseason - has a credible claim to optimism. The predominantly short-term, low-risk deals they signed this winter are a clear indication that the Blue Jays are approaching the tail end of their window to win a World Series, but until they prove otherwise, they're a contender.