AL Central Primer: Changing of the guard continues
For nearly a decade, the AL Central was won by going through Detroit - but that's suddenly changed heading into 2017. This is now the Cleveland Indians' division, and the reigning AL champions are now in prime position to earn both a second straight division crown and a World Series title. But the rival Tigers - eager to prove the sun hasn't yet set on their aging empire - and a pesky Royals club with eyes on another shocking run to glory, may have other plans.
Can anyone knock off the Indians? Will a rebuilding club surprise? Here's everything you need to know about this division in theScore's 2017 AL Central primer.
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Chicago White Sox
2016 record: 78-84 (4th in AL Central)
2017 payroll: $88,391,271
Over/Under win total for 2017: 69.5
Odds to win World Series: 100/1
3-year trend: 2014 (4th); 2015 (4th); 2016 (4th)
Highest projected WAR: Jose Quintana (4.0)
X-factor: Yoan Moncada
Prospect to watch: Moncada (MLB.com: No. 2; Baseball America: No. 2; Baseball Prospectus: No. 5)
Winter report card: B+
Projected Lineup
| ORDER | PLAYER | POSITION |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Saladino | 2B |
| 2 | Tim Anderson | SS |
| 3 | Melky Cabrera | LF |
| 4 | Jose Abreu | 1B |
| 5 | Todd Frazier | 3B |
| 6 | Avisail Garcia | RF |
| 7 | Cody Asche | DH |
| 8 | Geovany Soto | C |
| 9 | Jacob May | CF |
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Projected ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Quintana | L | 3.80 |
| James Shields | R | 5.16 |
| Derek Holland | L | 4.80 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | R | 4.91 |
| Carlos Rodon* | L | 3.96 |
*Expected to open season on DL
White Sox win the division if ...
They own a time machine. Let's be real here: Rick Hahn and Ken Williams did an excellent job to finally start the rebuild and reboot a very dry farm system after years of treading water. Now, the future is suddenly bright on the South Side - but this is still the present day. Besides Quintana (assuming he's not dealt), this year's White Sox team, a mishmash of aging characters and raw young talent, won't be scaring anybody. For now, the White Sox - already virtually invisible in their own city thanks to the Cubs - must be content playing the role of division fodder, their only solace being that help in the form of Moncada, Michael Kopech, et al is finally on the horizon.
Cleveland Indians
2016 record: 94-67 (1st in AL Central)
2017 payroll: $118,622,366
Over/Under win total for 2017: 92.5
Odds to win World Series: 9/1
3-year trend: 2014 (3rd); 2015 (3rd); 2016 (1st)
Highest projected WAR: Francisco Lindor (5.3)
X-factor: Michael Brantley
Prospect to watch: Bradley Zimmer (MLB.com: No. 22; Baseball America: No. 62; Baseball Prospectus: No. 80)
Winter report card: A
Projected Lineup
| ORDER | PLAYER | POSITION |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Santana | 1B |
| 2 | Francisco Lindor | SS |
| 3 | Michael Brantley* | LF |
| 4 | Edwin Encarnacion | DH |
| 5 | Jason Kipnis* | 2B |
| 6 | Jose Ramirez | 3B |
| 7 | Lonnie Chisenhall* | RF |
| 8 | Tyler Naquin | CF |
| 9 | Yan Gomes | C |
*Expected to open season on DL
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Projected ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Corey Kluber | R | 3.42 |
| Trevor Bauer | R | 4.29 |
| Josh Tomlin | R | 4.50 |
| Danny Salazar | R | 3.65 |
| Carlos Carrasco | R | 3.37 |
Indians win the division if ...
Everybody's healthy. On paper, this team is better than the one that survived all kinds of injuries to come just one inning shy of ending a 68-year title drought in 2016. Encarnacion is an upgrade over Mike Napoli, Andrew Miller's around for a full season, and most of last year's late-season injuries have healed. Still, they're not without a few injury-related questions: Will Miller's historic run through last October come back to haunt him this summer? Will the three big starters - including the workhorse Kluber, who was also stretched to the limit in the playoffs - hold up? And perhaps most importantly, how long will Kipnis and (once again) Brantley be sidelined? This is the Indians' division to lose, and as long as they avoid the injury bug, all signs point to a second straight division crown.
Detroit Tigers
2016 record: 86-75 (2nd in AL Central)
2017 payroll: $194,300,000
Over/Under win total for 2017: 82.5
Odds to win World Series: 28/1
3-year trend: 2014 (1st); 2015 (5th); 2016 (2nd)
Highest projected WAR: Justin Verlander (4.3)
X-factor: Justin Upton
Prospect to watch: Joe Jimenez (MLB.com: NR; Baseball America: NR; Baseball Prospectus: NR)
Winter report card: C+
Projected Lineup
| ORDER | PLAYER | POSITION |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Kinsler | 2B |
| 2 | Nick Castellanos | 3B |
| 3 | Miguel Cabrera | 1B |
| 4 | Victor Martinez | DH |
| 5 | J.D. Martinez* | RF |
| 6 | Justin Upton | LF |
| 7 | Tyler Collins | CF |
| 8 | James McCann | C |
| 9 | Jose Iglesias | SS |
*Expected to open season on DL
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Projected ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | R | 3.65 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | R | 4.54 |
| Daniel Norris | L | 4.28 |
| Michael Fulmer | R | 4.02 |
| Matt Boyd | L | 4.61 |
Tigers win the division if ...
Father Time is kind. After flirting with tearing it all down over the winter, the Tigers brought most of their 2016 crew back to try for what could be one last run with this core. Miggy's still Miggy, and Verlander's still doing his thing too, but the Tigers need a lot more from the rest of this roster to go right - mainly, their free-agent blunders bouncing back - in order to really challenge Cleveland (not going 4-14 against the Indians again would also be helpful). J.D. Martinez's season-opening DL stint is a terrible way to start, as it's left the Tigers basically playing from behind right away. No one can deny this is a talented team that can, and should, make noise if everyone performs to their capabilities - but if that doesn't happen, the only sound you'll hear in Detroit this season will be that of a window slamming shut.
Kansas City Royals
2016 record: 81-81 (3rd in AL Central)
2017 payroll: $137,591,667
Over/Under win total for 2017: 76.5
Odds to win World Series: 33/1
3-year trend: 2014 (2nd); 2015 (1st); 2016 (3rd)
Highest projected WAR: Mike Moustakas (3.1)
X-factor: Alex Gordon
Prospect to watch: Matt Strahm (MLB.com: NR; Baseball America: NR; Baseball Prospectus: NR)
Winter report card: C+
Projected Lineup
| ORDER | PLAYER | POSITION |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Gordon | LF |
| 2 | Mike Moustakas | 3B |
| 3 | Lorenzo Cain | CF |
| 4 | Eric Hosmer | 1B |
| 5 | Salvador Perez | C |
| 6 | Brandon Moss | DH |
| 7 | Paulo Orlando | RF |
| 8 | Alcides Escobar | SS |
| 9 | Raul Mondesi Jr. | 2B |
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Projected ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Duffy | L | 3.80 |
| Ian Kennedy | R | 4.37 |
| Jason Hammel | R | 4.56 |
| Jason Vargas | L | 4.49 |
| Nathan Karns | R | 4.34 |
Royals win the division if ...
They start out hot and don't let up. The first few months of 2017 will not only make or break the Royals' season, but will likely dictate this franchise's future given the harsh small-market realities they face. Almost all of Kansas City's 2015 World Series-winning core - Hosmer, Cain, Moustakas, and Escobar - are free agents after this year, and the Royals can't afford to keep them all. Fly out of the gate, make some early noise, and perhaps GM Dayton Moore can be convinced to go for it again before some of those guys depart. It can be done, but the title-winning core will need those other guys - including rookie keystone man Mondesi Jr., two new bats in Moss and the already hurt Jorge Soler, and a few potentially shaky back-end starters - to step up early and not slow down in order to make this happen.
Minnesota Twins
2016 record: 59-103 (5th in AL Central)
2017 payroll: $99,547,500
Over/Under win total for 2017: 74.5
Odds to win World Series: 125/1
3-year trend: 2014 (5th); 2015 (2nd); 2016 (5th)
Highest projected WAR: Brian Dozier (3.1)
X-factor: Byron Buxton
Prospect to watch: Nick Gordon (MLB.com: No. 50; Baseball America: No. 60; Baseball Prospectus: No. 48)
Winter report card: C
Projected Lineup
| ORDER | PLAYER | POSITION |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Dozier | 2B |
| 2 | Byron Buxton | CF |
| 3 | Joe Mauer | 1B |
| 4 | Miguel Sano | 3B |
| 5 | Max Kepler | RF |
| 6 | Robbie Grossman | DH |
| 7 | Eddie Rosario | LF |
| 8 | Jorge Polanco | SS |
| 9 | Jason Castro | C |
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Projected ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Ervin Santana | R | 4.54 |
| Hector Santiago | L | 5.06 |
| Kyle Gibson | R | 4.53 |
| Phil Hughes | R | 4.88 |
| Adalberto Mejia | L | 4.54 |
Twins win the division if ...
Every worst-case scenario befalls their division rivals and the Twins win by default. The Twins' 59-103 record in 2016 was both the worst in baseball and the franchise's worst since moving to Minnesota in 1961; while they may not lose that many games again this year, things won't get too much better in 2017. It will be fun to watch the play of franchise cornerstones Buxton and Sano, the continuing evolution of other youngsters like Kepler and Polanco, and also to see if Dozier can build off his historic 2016 at the plate. But the combination of a shaky pitching staff, a bunch of bad contracts they're saddled with, and their best non-Buxton/Sano youngsters still being a few years away is still a recipe for another very long summer in the Twin Cities.
*Salary projections courtesy Cots Baseball Contracts
*Projected WAR,ERA courtesy Fangraphs
*Odds courtesy Bovada
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)