AL West Primer: It's time to mess with Texas
The Texas Rangers have back-to-back division championships to defend, but it's not going to be a runaway. Both the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros have made noteworthy additions and will challenge for the division. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics have a much more difficult path to relevance, but neither Mike Trout nor Oakland magic can be counted out entirely.
As we continue marching toward Opening Day, here's all you need to know about the AL East in theScore's division primer.
Division Primers
AL East | AL Central | AL West
NL East | NL Central | NL West
Houston Astros
(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)
2016 record: 84-78 (3rd in NL West)
2017 payroll: $119,447,500
Over/Under win total for 2017: 91.5
Odds to win World Series: 14/1
3-year trend: 2014 (4th); 2015 (2nd); 2016 (3rd)
Highest projected WAR: Carlos Correa (4.8)
X-factor: Lance McCullers
Prospect to watch: Francis Martes (MLB.com: No. 20; Baseball America: No. 15; Baseball Prospectus: No. 28)
Winter report card: A-
Projected Lineup
| ORDER | PLAYER | POSITION |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Springer | CF |
| 2 | Alex Bregman | 3B |
| 3 | Jose Altuve | 2B |
| 4 | Carlos Correa | SS |
| 5 | Carlos Beltran | DH |
| 6 | Brian McCann | C |
| 7 | Yuli Gurriel | 1B |
| 8 | Josh Reddick | RF |
| 9 | Norichika Aoki | LF |
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Projected ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Keuchel | LHP | 3.54 |
| Lance McCullers | RHP | 3.48 |
| Charlie Morton | RHP | 4.10 |
| Joe Musgrove | RHP | 4.15 |
| Mike Fiers | RHP | 4.41 |
Astros win the division if ..
The pitching staff stays healthy and effective. The lineup is solid from top to bottom, with generational talent in Altuve and Correa mixed with veteran power from Beltran. Keuchel needs to rebound and McCullers needs to stay on the field. If the Astros can add another arm as insurance via trade, the World Series parade may go through Houston.
Los Angeles Angels
(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)
2016 record: 74-88 (4th in NL West)
2017 payroll: $156,318,333
Over/Under win total for 2017: 80.5
Odds to win World Series: 40/1
3-year trend: 2014 (1st); 2015 (3rd); 2016 (4th)
Highest projected WAR: Mike Trout (8.3)
X-factor: Albert Pujols
Prospect to watch: Jahmai Jones (MLB.com: No. N/A; Baseball America: No. N/A; Baseball Prospectus: No. 78)
Winter report card: B
Projected Lineup
| ORDER | PLAYER | POSITION |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yunel Escobar | 3B |
| 2 | Kole Calhoun | RF |
| 3 | Mike Trout | CF |
| 4 | Albert Pujols | DH |
| 5 | C.J. Cron | 1B |
| 6 | Danny Espinosa | 2B |
| 7 | Andrelton Simmons | SS |
| 8 | Ben Revere | LF |
| 9 | Martin Maldonado | C |
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Projected ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Ricky Nolasco | RHP | 4.20 |
| Matt Shoemaker | RHP | 3.85 |
| Garrett Richards | RHP | 3.51 |
| Tyler Skaggs | LHP | 3.57 |
| Jesse Chavez | RHP | 4.18 |
Angels win the division if ...
Mike Trout can also pitch as well as he hits. Things don't look good for the Angels. Richards is a big question mark following his decision to skip Tommy John surgery, and Shoemaker's head injury derailed a nice evolution to his game as he relied more heavily on his split-finger fastball. Trout needs to be superhuman and Pujols has to play like he did in St. Louis, and then a lot of luck has to go the Angels' way.
Oakland Athletics
(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)
2016 record: 69-93 (5th in NL West)
2017 payroll: $73,103,333
Over/Under win total for 2017: 74.5
Odds to win World Series: 150/1
3-year trend: 2014 (2nd); 2015 (5th); 2016 (5th)
Highest projected WAR: Stephen Vogt, Sonny Gray, and Jharel Cotton (2.4)
X-factor: Ryon Healy
Prospect to watch: Franklin Barreto (MLB.com: No. 52 ; Baseball America: No. 40; Baseball Prospectus: No. 47)
Winter report card: C-
Projected Lineup
| ORDER | PLAYER | POSITION |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rajai Davis | CF |
| 2 | Stephen Vogt | C |
| 3 | Ryon Healy | DH |
| 4 | Khris Davis | LF |
| 5 | Matt Joyce | RF |
| 6 | Marcus Semien | SS |
| 7 | Trevor Plouffe | 3B |
| 8 | Yonder Alonso | 1B |
| 9 | Jed Lowrie | 2B |
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Projected ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Kendall Graveman | RHP | 4.56 |
| Sean Manaea | LHP | 4.10 |
| Jharel Cotton | RHP | 4.17 |
| Andrew Triggs | RHP | 4.42 |
| Sonny Gray* | RHP | 4.07 |
*Will begin season on disabled list
Athletics win the division if ...
A miracle happens. There is a lot to like about Oakland, specifically its youth. The problem is, the pieces just aren't ready. The rotation will be respectable if Gray can even come close to his previous skill level. As it is, Plouffe, Alonso, and others seem like placeholders rather than long-term solutions. Prospects like Franklin Barreto and Matt Chapman will soon join Healy and Khris Davis to help boost the team's chances down the road.
Seattle Mariners
(Photo courtesy: Action Images)
2016 record: 86-76 (2nd in NL West)
2017 payroll: $147,674,643
Over/Under win total for 2017: 85.5
Odds to win World Series: 33/1
3-year trend: 2014 (3rd); 2015 (4th); 2016 (2nd)
Highest projected WAR: Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager (3.8)
X-factor: Felix Hernandez
Prospect to watch: Tyler O'Neill (MLB.com: No. 36 ; Baseball America: No. 38; Baseball Prospectus: No. 53)
Winter report card: B+
Projected Lineup
| ORDER | PLAYER | POSITION |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jarrod Dyson | LF |
| 2 | Jean Segura | SS |
| 3 | Robinson Cano | 2B |
| 4 | Nelson Cruz | DH |
| 5 | Kyle Seager | 3B |
| 6 | Mitch Haniger | RF |
| 7 | Leonys Martin | CF |
| 8 | Danny Valencia | 1B |
| 9 | Mike Zunino | C |
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Projected ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Hernandez | RHP | 3.91 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | RHP | 4.16 |
| James Paxton | LHP | 3.47 |
| Ariel Miranda | LHP | 4.49 |
| Yovani Gallardo | RHP | 4.54 |
Mariners win the division if ...
They run like the wind. Adding Dyson and Segura gives the Mariners the fastest 1-2 combo in the division, and could easily lead to a ton of runs scored as long as they can get on base. The Mariners feature a daunting heart of the order, though it gets somewhat thin by the bottom third.
Texas Rangers
(Photo courtesy: Action Images)
2016 record: 95-67 (1st in NL West)
2017 payroll: $161,364,970
Over/Under win total for 2017: 84.5
Odds to win World Series: 28/1
3-year trend: 2014 (5th); 2015 (1st); 2016 (1st)
Highest projected WAR: Yu Darvish (4.4)
X-factor: Carlos Gomez
Prospect to watch: Yohander Mendez (MLB.com: No. 56; Baseball America: No. N/A; Baseball Prospectus: No. 39)
Winter report card: C+
Projected Lineup
| ORDER | PLAYER | POSITION |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Gomez | CF |
| 2 | Shin-soo Choo | DH |
| 3 | Adrian Beltre | 3B |
| 4 | Mike Napoli | 1B |
| 5 | Rougned Odor | 2B |
| 6 | Jonathan Lucroy | C |
| 7 | Nomar Mazara | RF |
| 8 | Elvis Andrus | SS |
| 9 | Jurickson Profar | LF |
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Projected ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | RHP | 3.58 |
| Cole Hamels | LHP | 3.95 |
| Martin Perez | LHP | 4.50 |
| A.J. Griffin | RHP | 5.06 |
| Andrew Cashner* | RHP | 5.25 |
*Will begin season on disabled list
Rangers win the division if ...
The offense buoys the suspect rotation. After Hamels and Darvish, who are elite when healthy, the rotation is the Rangers' biggest concern. Ross and offseason acquisition Andrew Cashner represent an attempt to address this, but who knows if they even combine for 30 starts between them? From No. 1-9 in the order, though, the lineup is dangerous and could propel this team back to the playoffs for the third consecutive season.
*Salary projections courtesy Cots Baseball Contracts
*Projected WAR,ERA courtesy Fangraphs
*Odds courtesy Bovada