Aaron Judge and the importance of launch angle
Aaron Judge is one of just six hitters so far this year who has seen at least 100 pitches, and put five of them into play at 110 mph or faster, and the New York Yankees outfielder has some pretty elite company on the top of that leaderboard.
Giancarlo Stanton leads all of baseball with seven such instances, hitting homers on three of them. Eric Hosmer is next with six cases, homering just once. That leaves Judge tied with Marcell Ozuna, Miguel Sano, and Nelson Cruz with five batted balls at 110 mph-plus.
But Judge is without something all of those other hitters have. On those batted balls, Judge is the only one not to leave the yard even once. In fact, on his five batted balls at 110 mph-plus, Judge has mustered just two singles, a groundout, a double play, and a fielder's choice.
| Player | 110mph+ EV | Total Pitches | % of Pitches | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanton | 7 | 205 | 3.4 | 3 |
| Sano | 5 | 229 | 2.2 | 3 |
| Hosmer | 6 | 200 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Cruz | 5 | 236 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Ozuna | 5 | 188 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Judge | 5 | 166 | 3.0 | 0 |
It's probably worth noticing at this point that Judge is on this list despite seeing just 166 pitches - 22 fewer than the next lowest hitter.
Of course, all of this comes with the caveat that it's very early; but there's a lesson to be learned. Let's take a look at the distance, launch angle, and specific exit velocity of those three home runs from Stanton:
| Opposing pitcher | Distance | Exit velocity (mph) | Launch angle (degrees) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaime Garcia | 397 | 110.1 | 36.3 |
| Jaime Garcia | 396 | 115.6 | 18.8 |
| Fernando Salas | 442 | 111.9 | 18.7 |
And now, here's all five of Judge's instances in chronological order:
| Opposing pitcher | Distance | Exit velocity (mph) | Launch angle (degrees) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | 142 | 114.6 | -8.9 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | 132 | 115.5 | -4.9 |
| Tyler Wilson | 342 | 115.9 | 17.3 |
| Alex Cobb | 22 | 117.2 | -4.6 |
| Jumbo Diaz | 162 | 116.5 | 5.1 |
That's a lot of negatives under the "launch angle" column.
This isn't to suggest Judge is in a slump. The 24-year-old outfielder is posting a slash line of .250/.341/.583 with three home runs. He's been arguably the best Yankees hitter so far, next to the white-hot start of Chase Headley.
It's just to illustrate the importance of launch angle on batted-ball outcomes with one anomalous example.
The belief must be that any batter that hits the ball this hard can't possibly continue grounding into feeble double plays against Erasmo Ramirez - which cost the Yankees 7.7 percent of win probability that game; Judge's worst play of the year so far by WPA.
Judge is averaging less than one degree of launch angle in what is, truthfully, a very small and noisy sample size. If he can find a way to barrel up on those hard-hit balls, though, Judge won't stay batting in the bottom half of the Yankees line up for much longer.