Will Cody Bellinger be among Dodgers' rookie greats?
The injury-depleted Los Angeles Dodgers called up top prospect Cody Bellinger in April to provide a temporary spark in the outfield, assuming the first baseman could hold his own in the short term.
Then Adrian Gonzalez landed on the disabled list in early May, opening the door for Bellinger to stick around and assume his natural position. And with the 21-year-old performing well at the plate, the stopgap has quickly become a permanent fixture in the Dodgers' clubhouse and a legitimate contender for National League Rookie of the Year.
Bellinger, who's slashed .258/.326/.581 with 11 home runs, five doubles, and 29 RBIs in 33 games, appears to have an edge on the floundering Dansby Swanson, the preseason favorite.
The son of former Yankees infielder Clay Bellinger is on pace for one of the best offensive performances by a rookie in Dodgers history, and that's saying something.
A Dodger claimed ROY honors in four consecutive seasons from 1979 to 1982 and five consecutive times from 1992 to 1996. A MLB-record 17 different Dodger rookies have won the award - 13 since the team moved to Los Angeles from Brooklyn in 1958 - with Corey Seager being the most recent.
But no Dodgers rookie in the Modern Era reached double-digit home runs faster than Bellinger.
So where will he ultimately rank in the pantheon of Dodgers rookies (pitchers excluded)?
| ROY | AVG/OBP/SLG | R | HR | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Seager (2016) | .308/.365/.512 | 105 | 26 | 72 |
| Todd Hollandsworth (1996) | .291/.348/.437 | 64 | 12 | 59 |
| Raul Mondesi (1994) | .306/.333/.516 | 63 | 16 | 56 |
| Mike Piazza (1993) | .318/.370/.561 | 81 | 34 | 112 |
| Eric Karros (1992) | .257/.304/.426 | 63 | 20 | 88 |
| Steve Sax (1982) | .282/.335/.359 | 88 | 4 | 47 |
| Ted Sizemore (1969) | .271/.328/.342 | 69 | 4 | 46 |
| Jim Lefebvre (1965) | .250/.337/.369 | 57 | 12 | 69 |
| Frank Howard (1960) | .268/.320/.464 | 54 | 23 | 77 |
| Jim Gilliam (1953) | .278/.383/.415 | 125 | 6 | 63 |
| Jackie Robinson (1947) | .297/.383/.427 | 125 | 12 | 48 |
In addition to his balanced numbers across the board, Seager hit 40 doubles, good for seventh most in the NL.
Piazza was a force to be reckoned with in 1993. He holds the club's rookie records for home runs, RBIs, and slugging percentage.
(Photo courtesy: Action Images)
There's also been several notable rookies who didn't win the award, including Yasiel Puig in 2013, Russell Martin in 2006, and Greg Brock in 1983. Matt Kemp didn't make the list because rookie eligibility rules put his first season in a virtual no-man's land.
Bellinger is unlikely to match Jim Gilliam or Jackie Robinson in runs scored or on-base percentage, but, from a pure power perspective, he could surpass everyone other than Piazza, and even he is theoretically within striking distance. But there are signs he could be cooling off, including a four-strikeout performance on Tuesday.
His ZiPS Projections for the season (.236/306./473 with 18 home runs and 54 RBIs) aren't flattering, and he's struck out 44 times to date. For comparison, Piazza struck out 86 times over 149 games in his rookie season. Bellinger has the highest fly ball rate on the roster (50.6 percent) and his home run/fly ball rate (27.5 percent) is in all likelihood unsustainable.
As good as he's been, Bellinger is far from sowing up ROY honors. Joc Pederson looked like he was on his way to winning the 2015 award, even earning a spot in the All-Star Game, before Kris Bryant's call-up by the Cubs. Pederson hit .178 in the second half with 63 strikeouts in 180 at-bats.
Regardless of how Bellinger's season plays out, his hot start has been impressive. And he wouldn't be the first rookie to run out of steam. As the Dodgers see it, he has a bright future ahead of him.
"This kid is a special young man. He's a heckuva baseball player," manager Dave Roberts recently told The Orange County Register's Bill Plunkett. "He's only going to get better."