In the Statcast era, Jose Altuve is succeeding the old-school way
Which player would you rather have on your team: the batter who's averaging an underwhelming 86-mph exit velocity on all balls put into play, or the one with the .365 batting average?
Alternatively, would you rather employ the batter outperforming their wOBA by nearly 80 points, or the player with back-to-back four-hit games?
There's actually no way to choose here, because all four players are Jose Altuve.
Of course, Altuve is a well-known player with plenty of bold ink on his Baseball-Reference stats page, but it's the categories in which he leads - the old-school metrics that fans are gradually paying less attention to - that make him an outlier.
Aside from currently leading the American League in batting average, he won the batting title last season and led all of baseball in 2014 - a feat that, years ago would have easily accrued MVP votes. Instead, the diminutive second baseman has just one season in the top five of MVP voting.
In 1960, Dick Groat won the National League MVP after leading the league in only one category: batting average. Tony Oliva finished the 1965 season with a .491 slugging percentage and placed second in MVP voting, thanks to a league-leading .321 batting average. And in his mediocre 13-year career, Alex Johnson appeared in the top 10 of MVP voting once - that's right, in 1970, when he hit .329 to lead the AL.
By now, we know batting average isn't nearly as instructive or predictive as previously professed. But this is a problem that befalls each and every statistic; none tells the entire story.
Among batters with at least 100 batted-ball events on Statcast, Altuve's average exit velocity ranks a pedestrian 233rd. That's right between Kevin Pillar and Gerardo Parra - players that, if you combined their FanGraphs WAR (0.9 and 1.2 respectively), have been worth less than half of Altuve's 5.5 mark.
Altuve's success is based on broad consistency despite the attrition of a long MLB season at a time when baseball fans are converting en masse to a preference for singular achievements - remarkable accomplishments that are completed in one play.
Aaron Judge hits a ball 121.1 mph off of Chris Tillman. It goes 382 feet for a home run. Wow! Judge rips a ball 495 feet off of Logan Verrett. Whoa!
These feats are impressive in two distinct ways: They are tracked and measured, and they are easily consumed in less than a minute of video.
We can track and measure how well Altuve performs, but we cannot consume it in bite-sized portions. Altuve's achievements are meant to be appreciated over 162 games. It's electing to watch the marathon while Usain Bolt is running the sprint.
And let's not forget that while Statcast measurements are new and flashy, they're also largely untested. It won't be certain whether they're instructive or predictive for many years. For instance, of the top 10 hits by exit velocity this season, just four were home runs, and one was an out.
If the season ended today, Altuve would become just the third batter since 1920 with a batting average of .365, a 175 OPS+, and at least 20 steals. The list of those who meet those qualifications reads like a conversation with your grandparent about the best baseball players of all time:
Player | Year | BA | OPS+ | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|
Jose Altuve | 2017 | .365 | 178 | 21 |
Larry Walker | 1997 | .366 | 178 | 33 |
Rod Carew | 1977 | .388 | 178 | 23 |
George Sisler | 1920 | .407 | 182 | 42 |
Ty Cobb | 1918 | .382 | 194 | 34 |
Ty Cobb | 1917 | .383 | 209 | 55 |
Ty Cobb | 1916 | .371 | 179 | 68 |
Tris Speaker | 1916 | .386 | 186 | 35 |
Ty Cobb | 1915 | .369 | 185 | 96 |
Ty Cobb | 1914 | .368 | 190 | 35 |
Shoeless Joe Jackson | 1913 | .373 | 192 | 26 |
Ty Cobb | 1913 | .390 | 196 | 51 |
Tris Speaker | 1912 | .383 | 189 | 52 |
Ty Cobb | 1912 | .409 | 200 | 61 |
Shoeless Joe Jackson | 1912 | .395 | 192 | 35 |
Ty Cobb | 1911 | .420 | 196 | 83 |
Shoeless Joe Jackson | 1911 | .408 | 193 | 41 |
Ty Cobb | 1910 | .383 | 206 | 65 |
Nap Lajoie | 1910 | .384 | 199 | 26 |
Ty Cobb | 1909 | .377 | 193 | 76 |
Cy Seymour | 1905 | .377 | 182 | 21 |
Nap Lajoie | 1904 | .376 | 203 | 29 |
Nap Lajoie | 1902 | .378 | 176 | 20 |
Nap Lajoie | 1901 | .426 | 198 | 27 |
Jesse Burkett | 1901 | .376 | 181 | 27 |
(Statistics courtesy: Baseball-Reference)
Of the 25 seasons on this list, 60 percent of them took place before World War I.
Whether Altuve's name still appears on that list by season's end remains to be seen, but his achievement two-thirds of the way into the season is noteworthy regardless.
Usain Bolt is an exciting athlete - perhaps the most exciting athlete currently alive. But it takes a player like Altuve to demonstrate the impressiveness and influence that go along with the loneliness of the long distance runner.