David vs. Goliath: Price should start for Red Sox in must-win Game 3

In theory, in this era of ridiculously incongruent (and ridiculously entertaining) win-or-go-home wild-card games, the advantages of winning the division are self-evident. The Boston Red Sox, over the last two years, have debunked this theory.

In 2016, after locking up the American League East with a 93-69 regular season, the Red Sox were bounced from the division series in three games by the eventual league champions. A year later, following yet another 93-win finish and a second straight division title, the Red Sox face a similar fate, as they trail the Houston Astros two games to nada in the best-of-five ALDS.

Now, the man tasked with keeping the season alive is Doug Fister, a wholly unspectacular fifth-starter archetype whom the Los Angeles Angels deemed unworthy of a call-up earlier this year. The Angels, en route to their second straight losing season, gave starts to Troy Scribner, Daniel Wright, and Bud Norris.

Fister, to his credit, pitched as well in Boston as anyone could've reasonably expected. In 15 starts and three relief appearances, the 33-year-old posted a 4.88 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, routinely failing to pitch deep into games but mixing in a handful of improbable gems - including a complete-game one-hitter against the Cleveland Indians on Aug. 22 - to make his numbers, on the whole, palatable.

Still, with Boston's season on the line, he shouldn't be starting. Nor should Rick Porcello, the reigning American League Cy Young award winner, for that matter. Rather, Red Sox manager John Farrell should give the ball to David Price, even in his ostensibly compromised state, because he's the best pitcher on the roster not named Chris Sale, and he has looked increasingly like his old self of late.

Since rejoining the Red Sox in September after spending the previous two months on the disabled list with renewed elbow trouble, Price has been sensational out of the bullpen. Like, we're talking Craig Kimbrel-level sensational. Across 8 2/3 regular-season innings, he didn't allow a run. In three of his five outings, he didn't even allow a baserunner. He limited his opponents to a .100 average, too, and struck out nearly 41 percent of the batters he faced. All told, in just five pre-October relief appearances, Price provided more WAR for the Red Sox than Addison Reed, Fernando Abad, Brandon Workman, and Robby Scott. Combined.

Then, on Friday afternoon at Minute Maid Park, having gone five days without pitching in a game, Price was absolutely nails when called upon to bail out his team in Game 2 against the Astros, inducing consecutive pop-ups to wriggle the Red Sox - trailing 4-1 at the time - out of a bases-loaded, one-out jam in the third. He then came back out and threw two more shutout frames. It was the most impressive performance by a Boston pitcher this postseason.

Perhaps more importantly, though, his velocity is back, and the 32-year-old has gone through the rigors of starting nearly every time out - i.e. completing an inning, chilling in the dugout for 20 minutes, and then coming back and pitching effectively - with no discernible ill effects. He also threw a scoreless inning Saturday following a 24-pitch outing the day prior.

So, even though Price threw 38 pitches Friday, Farrell would be remiss to bury the five-time All-Star in the bullpen in a must-win game. Instead, with an off-day Saturday, let him start Game 3, even if he can only go two or three innings, in the hope that the offense can build an early lead Price can then hand off to Rodriguez or Porcello. (Imagine that! The Red Sox have trailed in the first inning in both games thus far, and were only deficit-free after that for a brief moment in the fourth inning of Game 1.)

The value Price offers, after all, as a high-leverage, multi-inning bullpen weapon evaporates if Fister coughs up an early five-spot - a decidedly real possibility given how badly he struggled this year in his first time through a lineup. (Essentially, when navigating a lineup for the first time this year, Fister turned his opponents into Kris Bryant.) In this context, the first inning is a high-leverage spot.

Now, were the pathology of elbow injuries more concrete, Farrell could defensibly keep Price in the bullpen, but, frankly, we have no idea when - or if - that bomb is going to go off (again). While it makes sense, given his recurring elbow trouble, to mitigate risk by using Price sparingly, that strategy is informed, really, more by conventional wisdom (i.e. nothing) than actual data. If he's healthy enough to pitch in relief, he's healthy enough to make an abbreviated start, and if the Red Sox somehow knew that Price's elbow was in such a precarious state that a couple extra innings - maybe an additional 30 pitches - would cause his ligaments to give out, then he probably shouldn't be on the roster in the first place.

He is, though, and he was nasty on Friday, and the Red Sox now have to beat the best offensive team in the American League three times in a row to keep their World Series hopes alive. It's a daunting task, likely an impossible one, but any potential comeback starts with Price, not Fister.

David has beaten Goliath before, after all.