3 takeaways from Pollock signing with Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers signed outfielder A.J. Pollock to a four-year contract worth a reported $55 million on Thursday, finally making a big splash in free agency.

While the Dodgers had added set-up man Joe Kelly to bolster their bullpen, Pollock solidifies an offense that was in dire need of reinforcements after the team traded away Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp, and allowed Manny Machado to enter free agency.

Here are three takeaways from Pollock's contract and what it means for the Dodgers, and the league, going forward.

Visions of Bryce Harper fading for Dodgers

Though we can't say with certainty that the Dodgers have exited the Bryce Harper sweepstakes until he signs a bank-breaking new contract elsewhere, adding Pollock makes a Harper signing much less likely, for better or worse.

Pollock will slot in as the team's primary center fielder, a position split between Cody Bellinger and Chris Taylor in 2018. Pollock won a Gold Glove as a center fielder in 2015, and he's been reliable defensively his entire career.

And as he showed in that 2015 campaign, the 31-year-old can hit when healthy. He slashed .315/.367/.498 with 20 home runs and 39 stolen bases that year. The problem? He's topped out at 113 games played in a season (2018) since then.

Immediately following his breakout season, he was limited to only 12 games after suffering a broken elbow in spring training. Pollock has also missed time with thumb and groin issues, further complicating his durability. And as good as Pollock was in 2015, he doesn't bring the impact of someone like Harper.

Harper may be inconsistent too, but he won the MVP Award in 2015 - Pollock's career year - and walks at a greater clip than nearly everyone. And while Pollock theoretically represents an improvement defensively, Bellinger was more than serviceable at his position in 2018. It looks like Bellinger will move to right field, so Los Angeles will still be able to take advantage of his skills alongside Pollock.

The signing also keeps the Dodgers under MLB’s luxury-tax threshold, which wouldn't have been the case had they pursued Harper. The deal will be seen as a five-year, $60-million contract thanks to a player option knocking the annual average down to $12 million for tax purposes, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN, keeping the team under the $206-million threshold for 2019. Prior to the Pollock deal, the Dodgers' projected 2019 payroll was $186.7 million, according to Cot's Contracts, so the outfielder's deal will keep them under.

With the Dodgers out of the picture, Harper will probably end up with the Philadelphia Phillies or return to the Washington Nationals. Those two teams have been the most commonly mentioned pursuers of the 26-year-old slugger.

The Dodgers likely ending their Harper chase might be frustrating for fans, but the savings could allow the front office to seek other trades. Speaking of possible trades...

Pederson out, Realmuto in?

With Pollock on the roster, Joc Pederson's role becomes far more tenuous.

Amid rumblings that the Dodgers have discussed sending him to the Chicago White Sox, a deal appears more likely now. Young outfielder Alex Verdugo is waiting in the wings, and it's probably time to make him a starter. The situation might be different if the Dodgers had a platoon taking shape, but both Pederson and Verdugo are lefties, and MLB Pipeline ranks the latter as a top-10 outfield prospect.

However, Pollock's fragility could prevent a Pederson trade. If he goes down with another injury and Pederson is busy roaming the outfield at Guaranteed Rate Field, the Dodgers may be in trouble. Andrew Toles could wind up filling in, but he's had his own difficulties staying healthy.

The Dodgers also remain in the market for a catcher - despite acquiring Russell Martin from the Blue Jays earlier this month - and Miami Marlins backstop J.T. Realmuto is their top target. Los Angeles has long been linked to Realmuto, and a deal could be coming with the team still engaged in talks. The Marlins are reportedly interested in catching prospect Keibert Ruiz in return, and L.A. could become the frontrunners if the team is willing to part with him.

Longest contract for position player this offseason

Prior to Pollock's contract, no position player had signed for longer than three years this offseason. Starting pitchers Yusei Kikuchi and Nathan Eovaldi inked deals for four years, and left-hander Patrick Corbin agreed to a six-year deal. Otherwise, every free agent has committed to shorter terms.

That's emblematic of a growing trend. Front offices are far less willing to offer long deals, either because diminishing returns have burned teams in the past, or because GMs have witnessed that happening from afar. But even if Pollock doesn't produce well for the Dodgers either because of lingering injuries or declining performance, the team isn't on the hook for the long haul.

Consider, for example, his contract when compared to Albert Pujols' massive deal and its impact on the Angels. The Angels owe him $87 million over the next three seasons, and he's been past his prime for years. Then there's Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera, who's also declining, and he'll still be under contract when Pollock becomes a free agent again.

Maybe it's unfair, but teams are much more risk averse now when doling out lengthy contracts, especially when the player in question is over 30 years old. It's still likely that Harper and Machado sign longer, more lucrative deals, but no one remaining on the market has a realistic shot at getting more years than Pollock.