Why Kimbrel, the best closer of all time, is worth a massive deal
"Nowhere close to $100 million."
That's what one anonymous National League scout said of Craig Kimbrel's worth back in December, according to Bleacher Report.
Although quotes from anonymous scouts are about as worthless as it gets, they are kind of a necessary evil. These people are in the industry, and they have some say about whether or not a team invests in a player.
They're also wrong. A lot.
Last spring, an anonymous scout told Jeff Passan that Shohei Ohtani was "basically like a high school hitter." The two-way phenom went on to mash 22 home runs in 366 trips to the plate en route to winning American League Rookie of the Year.
Now, the best closer in the history of baseball is getting the same treatment. And yet again, an anonymous scout is dead wrong.
The best closer in history
Before you get your pitchforks and dust off your Mariano Rivera jerseys, listen.
Here is a full list of every single pitcher to record at least 100 saves while posting a 2.00 ERA or lower before turning 30:
| Player | ERA | SV |
|---|---|---|
| Kimbrel | 1.91 | 333 |
That's it. Kimbrel is the list. He has already notched 333 saves before turning 30, and he could potentially retire as the only pitcher ever to record at least 100 saves with an ERA under 2.00.
Calling Kimbrel the best closer of all time might sound blasphemous mere weeks after Mo became the first player to ever be unanimously inducted into the Hall of Fame, but the stats speak for themselves. Let's compare Kimbrel's first nine seasons against Rivera's first nine years out of the 'pen (omitting his disastrous 1995 season when he made 10 starts).
| Player | IP | ERA | WHIP | SV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimbrel | 532 2/3 | 1.91 | 0.92 | 333 |
| Rivera | 661 1/3 | 2.12 | 1.02 | 336 |
Kimbrel is outpacing Mo in every measure except workload. And while it's true Hall of Famers are made in their 30s, Kimbrel's head start is historic and there's no reason to think he's slowing down.
Peripherals still line up
2018 was one of the worst years of Kimbrel's career, as he walked 12.6 percent of batters he faced. However, he substantially reduced the damage of those free passes by striking out 38.9 percent of his opponents. In contrast, 33-year-old Adam Ottavino, who some contended was actually the better option this offseason, struck out 36.3 percent of batters he faced in by far his best season to date.
If we just go by strikeout rate minus walk rate - the major components of FIP - Kimbrel ranked 12th among all qualified relievers in what was a down year. Among the players that finished lower were Brad Hand, Blake Treinen, Kenley Jansen, Felipe Vazquez, and Ottavino.
Finally, Kimbrel's swinging strike rate was among his career best, with 17.2 percent of his pitches resulting in a whiff. He has been better than that only twice before, in 2012 and 2017.
Precedent
Aroldis Chapman was one year younger than Kimbrel is now when he signed a five-year, $86-million contract with the New York Yankees in 2016, a record deal for a reliever.
Since then, Chapman has posted the fourth-best FIP among pitchers with at least 100 innings thrown, behind only Roberto Osuna, Chris Sale, and, you guessed it, Kimbrel.
Although the free-agent freeze that began last winter has persisted into 2019, Wade Davis was able to sign a three-year, $52-million deal with the Colorado Rockies last offseason, surpassing the average annual value of Chapman's record deal while heading into his age-32 season. The money is there, and if anyone deserves to break the recently-set free-agent records, approach the $100-million threshold, and prove the anonymous scouts wrong, it's Kimbrel.