2019 MLB betting cheat sheet

A new MLB season is upon us.

With a fresh start and a blank slate, we wanted to dig into some tips and angles you can keep in your back pocket for your betting pleasure, from win totals to weather trends.

Without further ado, here are some basic betting nuggets to keep you in the fray all season long.

Park factors

Not all ballparks are created equal. The lazy fly ball that dies in the heart of the outfield at Comerica Park might clear the wall at Coors Field. Thankfully, baseball is analytically driven, with stats that are adjusted and weighted.

For bettors who want to consider playing more totals than sides, here are the top 10 "hitter-friendly" parks courtesy of FantasyPros, with 1.000 runs representing the league average:

Conversely, here are the Top 10 "pitcher-friendly" parks:

Additionally, Andrew Perpetua of xStats dug into a metric called High Drives, the highest quality of batted balls representing 90 percent of home runs and 34 percent of doubles. Obviously, the result of this type of batted ball differs by stadium.

Eno Sarris of The Athletic gave a full rundown of Home Runs per High Drive and how it correlates to each stadium; again, 1.000 is the league average.

Another sneaky-good tool for totals (or your fantasy needs), here are the top 10 stadiums when it comes to the long ball:

On the flip side, here are the 10 worst parks for the metric:

Weather tips

The problem with weather is that it's already baked into the totals. It's not as simple as checking to see where the wind is blowing out and hammering the over; oddsmakers aren't that gullible. But there is one concrete tip that seems extremely useful regarding Wrigley Field, home of the Chicago Cubs.

Ever notice Cubs games are typically the final total to be posted on a daily basis? The wind has a greater effect on the baseball in Chicago's North Side than it does at any other ballpark.

Though you can't necessarily get away with going over on winds blowing out and under on gusts blowing in from center, Wrigley might be the exception. Since 2005, overs are hitting at 63.6 percent when the wind is blowing out and unders are hitting at 58.9 percent when the wind is blowing in, according to Mark Gallant of The Action Network.

Pretty cut and dry.

Pitcher trends

Pitching trends are tough to trust because they don't account for offense or bullpens. These trends aren't as sticky on a year-to-year basis, but here are some notes:

Kyle Freeland was the best-kept secret of the season in 2018. The market continually undervalued the Colorado Rockies left-hander, who learned how to pitch efficiently at Coors Field. Over his career, Freeland is 29-5 at home to the first-five under.

First-five bets, unlike full-game bets, are graded through - you guessed it - the first five innings of the game. Bettors like this type of bet if they want to avoid any effect the bullpens or benches might have on a game.

After he put up a 4.2 fWAR last season, it'll be intriguing to see how the market reacts to Freeland in 2019 - and whether or not he continues to enjoy inflated totals on his starts as he has over the previous two years.

The fact that Jacob deGrom was nearly untouchable, combined with the New York Mets' cool bats, helped the starting pitcher become one of the most profitable first-five under bets in the majors last season. DeGrom, who posted a 1.70 ERA and 0.912 WHIP, finished the year on a 23-3-1 run to the first-five under.

Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler fired on all cylinders when pitching at Dodger Stadium last season. He went 12-1-1 to the under in home games in 2018, allowing two earned runs or fewer in 12 of his 14 starts. Meanwhile, the first-five under was 11-2-1.

Over the past two seasons, Max Scherzer has only allowed 34 total earned runs in 17 starts following an outing in which he allowed multiple home runs. Scherzer's already elite, but that's pretty darn good, too.

Rockies right-hander Chad Bettis finished the 2018 season with an ERA of 5.01 and a WHIP of 1.396. He also happened to be a bettor's treasure trove, finishing the year 15-2-3 on the first-five line. Given the amount of luck he got in terms of run support, we wouldn't be so sure that trend sticks in 2019.

Notes on win totals

The Pittsburgh Pirates have gone over their win total in six of the previous seven seasons. Their win total for the 2019 season is 77.5.

Due largely to landing Bryce Harper, the Philadelphia Phillies had the biggest move from the opener of any team, jumping all the way from 83 to 89.5.

The Chicago White Sox were also big movers, albeit in the opposite direction. After hitting as high as 76.5 in some shops on the belief they'd sign a top-tier free agent, the White Sox are now as low as 71.5.

There were three popular 'over' bets at CG Technology sportsbooks in Las Vegas during the winter: the Chicago Cubs (88.5), San Diego Padres (78.5), and Cincinnati Reds (79.5). This represents a small fraction of futures tickets, but it makes sense that bettors would be keen on these three teams; the Cubs won 95 games a year ago, the Padres signed Manny Machado, and the Reds also made some splashy additions to their roster.

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.