MLB trade deadline analysis: Breaking down some of the major deals
Quick-hit analysis of select significant trades completed leading up to the trade deadline. Deals announced after 4 p.m. ET on July 31 not included, except Zack Greinke's.
Diamondbacks trade SP Zack Greinke to Astros for 1B/OF Seth Beer, SP J.B. Bukauskas, SP Corbin Martin, IF/OF Joshua Rojas (July 31)
The deadline's lone blockbuster looks, at the moment, like a win for both sides. In anticipation of another deep postseason run, Houston added a third ace to its rotation in Greinke, who joins Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole in what's now unequivocally the best assemblage of starters in the American League. Greinke, a six-time All-Star, had authored a 2.87 ERA with a league-leading 0.94 WHIP in 2019 prior to Wednesday afternoon's start in the Bronx. The Astros' willingness to flex their financial might and to give up a hefty chunk of prospect capital in the same deal seems downright anachronistic right now, but they should be lauded for going for it, and they will likely be rewarded for that aggressiveness come October.
Meanwhile, though the Diamondbacks effectively gave up on their wild-card aspirations with this deal, they also set themselves up for near-term success by unburdening themselves from most of Greinke's contract - which will pay him $70 million over the next two seasons - and by adding three impact prospects (Beer, Bukauskas, and Martin) who are all ranked top five in the Astros' system and who've already made their debuts at the Double-A level.
Pirates trade OF Corey Dickerson to Phillies for PTBNL, international bonus pool money (July 31)
Even for the Pirates, doesn't this return seem a little light? Yes, Dickerson is a rental, but he's also been a machine since returning from the injured list in June: Over his last 39 games, the veteran outfielder is slashing .336/.384/.566 with 20 extra-base hits (albeit with a .380 batting average on balls in play). The dude can hit, is the point, and he plays a perfectly adequate left field. Yet the Pirates didn't even get a Named Human for him, and it's fair to wonder if even star-level rentals could command significant trade returns in the current market. In any event, the Phillies now have a viable replacement for Jay Bruce, who was ably filling in for Andrew McCutchen before straining his oblique earlier this month. When - if - Bruce returns, the two will presumably split time in left field, with the other being the first pinch hitter off the bench down the stretch. Solid pickup for the Phillies.
Reds trade SP Tanner Roark to Athletics for OF Jameson Hannah (July 31)
With Trevor Bauer set to join the fold and Alex Wood finally healthy, someone had to go from the Reds' rotation. Roark, a free agent this winter, was the logical candidate. Still, even with minimal leverage, the Reds managed to finagle a solid prospect from Oakland in exchange for the veteran right-hander: Hannah, a former second-round pick, cracked the Athletics' top-10 list coming into the season and has acquitted himself reasonably well in the High-A California League as a 21-year-old, slashing .283/.341/.381 in 92 games. The Athletics' willingness to part with him underscores how thin their rotation is without Frankie Montas: Over the last two weeks, their starters own a combined 5.45 ERA, with Daniel Mengden and newcomer Homer Bailey the main culprits. In fact, Roark, who's in the midst of his best season (108 ERA+) since 2016, might be their best option at the moment to start a potential wild-card game if they opt not to use an opener for the second year in a row.
Giants trade SP Drew Pomeranz, RP Ray Black to Brewers for IF Mauricio Dubon (July 31)
Much like Jordan Lyles and Jacob Faria, whom the Brewers acquired in separate trades over the last 48 hours, Drew Pomeranz isn't particularly good: He posted an ERA of 6.10 in 17 starts with San Francisco before finally being relegated to the bullpen last week. He hasn't been an effective starter since 2017. Trading for him illustrates just how desperate the Brewers - with their negative run differential and very real chance of missing the postseason - are for rotation help. Credit to the Giants for capitalizing. It remains to be seen if they wave the white flag and trade Madison Bumgarner, but in the interim, they picked up a decent prospect - MLB Pipeline pegged Dubon as the third-best in the Brewers' system - for an impending free agent who hasn't pitched well all year. Could he turn it around in Milwaukee? Sure. Is he still an upgrade over Adrian Houser? Probably. But perhaps the Brewers should've sought quality over quantity in their search for starting pitching.
Mariners trade RP Roenis Elias to Nationals for RP Elvis Alvarado, RP Taylor Guilbeau (July 31)
Daniel Hudson alone can't save Washington's bullpen, and Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo knows it. Minutes after acquiring the right-hander from Toronto, he brought in another fine(ish) reliever in Elias, the 30-year-old lefty who authored a 4.40 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP over 44 appearances for the Mariners this year and represents an upgrade for the Nationals. (For more on their bullpen woes, consult the capsule below.) The gain is marginal - you're not getting more than a negligible boost for two minor-league relievers - but the Nationals, who currently occupy the first wild-card spot and sit 5 1/2 games back of first in the National League East, were right to pursue it. With Anthony Rendon set to hit free agency at season's end, they'd be remiss not to do everything they can to win a World Series championship this year.
Blue Jays trade RP Daniel Hudson to Nationals for RP Kyle Johnston (July 31)
For the second time in as many days, the rapidly dismantling Blue Jays flipped a veteran reliever - signed this past winter with the express purpose of trading him at the deadline - for something, which is more than nothing! If everything breaks right, Johnston, a sixth-round pick in the 2017 draft, will become a middle reliever at the big-league level. Can't quibble with anything here. As unspectacular as Hudson has been in 2019, managing a 3.00 ERA that belies his 4.21 FIP in 45 appearances, the 32-year-old right-hander will nevertheless be a boon to the Nationals' perpetually scuffling bullpen. The team's 5.99 ERA is the worst in the majors, and none of Washington's late-inning options other than closer Sean Doolittle could be described as anything better than "shaky."
Brewers trade 1B Jesus Aguilar to Rays for P Jacob Faria (July 31)
The Rays have had considerable success picking up distressed assets and wringing outsized value out of them. Picking up Jesus Aguilar very much aligns with that formula. An All-Star last year, Aguilar has been an utter disaster in 2019, slashing .225/.320/.375 (80 OPS+) and playing himself out of an everyday role with the Brewers, who installed Eric Thames as their primary first baseman in May. Aguilar's struggles against left-handed pitching essentially rendered him useless in Milwaukee, which did well to turn a redundant player into immediate relief help. Faria, who owns a 2.70 ERA with 11 strikeouts in seven relief outings this season, could also potentially be a future rotation piece; he crafted a 3.42 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP over 14 starts as a rookie two years ago. As such, it's hard not to like this deal for both sides. If the Rays can fix Aguilar, who managed a 127 OPS+ from 2017 through 2018, they'll have a middle-of-the-lineup masher for another three seasons. If they can't, all they gave up was Faria, who was an expendable piece of the Rays' bullpen - which ranks fifth in the majors in WAR - and who's spent most of 2019 in the minors.
Indians trade SP Trevor Bauer to Reds; Padres trade OF Franmil Reyes, SP Logan Allen, IF Victor Nova to Indians; Reds trade OF Yasiel Puig, SP Scott Moss to Indians, OF Taylor Trammell to Padres (July 30)
Finally, some excitement! There are plenty of moving parts here, obviously, but this three-way deal essentially breaks down as such: The Indians, perhaps emboldened by the impending returns of starting pitchers Danny Salazar and Corey Kluber, dealt from an area of strength to address a major weakness and bolster their chances of winning a fourth straight division title. Cleveland added soon-to-be free agent Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes to an outfield that's been atrocious at the plate this season. It's a win-now move that should serve them well moving forward, too, as Reyes, who owns a 125 OPS+ since debuting with San Diego last year, remains under control through 2024.
The Reds, meanwhile, improve their short-term outlook a bit. Phillip Ervin and/or Derek Dietrich can at least approximate Puig's production and they add a top-of-the-rotation arm through 2020. Cincinnati will take a long-term hit in parting with Trammell, a consensus top-40 prospect whose development has stagnated at Double-A. If they snap their postseason drought this year or next, however, with Bauer anchoring their rotation, few fans would likely quibble with the move.
The Padres, for their part, all but capitulated on 2019 with this deal, swapping out a productive, everyday outfielder for more prospect capital in Trammell. It's a defensible, if frustratingly prudent, move - they're "only" seven games back of a wild-card spot - though Padres fans are likely weary of future-focused moves at this point.
Blue Jays trade RP David Phelps to Cubs for SP Thomas Hatch (July 30)
The addition of Craig Kimbrel hasn't ameliorated the Cubs' bullpen woes. In fact, Chicago's relief corps is tied for dead last in the majors in WAR (-0.8) over the last month, and there's really nobody that manager Joe Maddon can turn to with confidence right now. Kimbrel owns a 6.75 ERA with the club; Pedro Strop's ERA for July stands at 7.00 (and he was placed on the injured list on Tuesday); Steve Cishek has recorded just one strikeout in his last nine appearances; Brad Brach's ERA this month is in double digits. That's suboptimal for a club chasing down a division title. Chicago needed help, and Phelps, who has managed a 3.63 ERA with 18 strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings since returning in June from Tommy John surgery, offers Maddon another option for the late innings - and a relatively fresh and cheap one, at that. If he fares well down the stretch, Phelps could effectively replace Cishek, an impending free agent, in next year's bullpen, too, as he comes with an incredibly inexpensive team option ($1 million) for 2020.
As for the Blue Jays, who have made three trades in the past 48 hours, getting a live body for Phelps has to be considered a success after taking a chance on him in January while still in recovery mode. It seems unlikely that Thomas Hatch is an improvement: In his second tour of Double-A, the 24-year-old right-hander owns a 4.59 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and mediocre peripherals.
Mets trade SP Jason Vargas to Phillies for C Austin Bossart (July 29)
The Phillies' rotation has been a disaster in 2019. Though the recent addition of Drew Smyly has paid early dividends - he allowed just one run and struck out eight over six innings in his July 21 debut - Vince Velasquez's continued presence in the rotation remained untenable for a team with postseason ambitions (the Phillies entered Monday just one game back of the second wild-card spot). Enter Vargas, a soft-throwing, 36-year-old lefty - and an impending free agent - who nevertheless represents a legitimate upgrade with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP across 18 starts in 2019.
This one isn't too complicated. The Phillies, who've invested a lot in winning right now, get a rental arm at a negligible cost in Bossart, who's currently hitting .195 in Double-A and profiles as a backup catcher. However, this deal doesn't necessarily elucidate the Mets' deadline approach. Marcus Stroman's arrival created a surplus in the rotation, so they had to get rid of someone anyway. It makes sense it'd be their least valuable soon-to-be free agent.
Pirates trade SP Jordan Lyles to Brewers for RP Cody Ponce (July 29)
Having lost both Jhoulys Chacin and Brandon Woodruff to injuries in the past 10 days, this deal was more than necessary for the Brewers, who are still awaiting starter Jimmy Nelson's return from the injured list. (As of Monday afternoon, they had no scheduled starter for Tuesday's series opener against Oakland.) Nobody would confuse Lyles for anything more than an occasionally serviceable fifth starter - he owns a 5.36 ERA over 18 starts this season and has never managed an above-average park-adjusted ERA in nine big-league seasons - but an occasionally serviceable fifth starter is still an upgrade over Adrian Houser, the (perhaps miscast) swingman who owns a 7.94 ERA with a whopping 1.010 opponents' OPS in four spot starts since late June. And given the Brewers' exceedingly thin margin for error to win the division - they sit a game back of both the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs, who are tied for first in the NL Central - they can't afford to punt a single game from here on out.
Will Lyles remain in the rotation when/if everyone returns to health? Probably not. And he probably wouldn't crack Milwaukee's postseason roster, frankly, if the team makes it that far. But he's a necessary addition in the interim, and he cost the Brewers practically nothing. Cody Ponce is a non-prospect; a 25-year-old enjoying modest success as a relief pitcher in Double-A.
Blue Jays trade SP Marcus Stroman, cash to Mets for SP Anthony Kay, SP Simeon Woods Richardson (July 28)
This is a weird one. Obviously, the rebuilding Blue Jays were resolved to trade Stroman - the feisty right-hander made it clear that Toronto never approached him about a contract extension despite his public desire to stay beyond 2020 - but it was nevertheless strange to see them unload their top trade asset three days before the deadline (to a non-contender, no less) for such an underwhelming return. Neither Kay, 24, nor Woods Richardson, 18, cracked MLB Pipeline's or Baseball America's top 100 prospects list coming into the 2019 season. Had the Jays waited until July 31, perhaps they could've leveraged a better haul from, say, the Minnesota Twins or the New York Yankees - or any contending team with a need for starting pitching.
As for the Mets, well ... at least they're consistent in their propensity for always doing the thing that defies explanation. Sitting five games below .500 and six games back of the second wild-card spot, they were widely expected to sell at the deadline, and yet they added a top-of-the-rotation starter who remains under control for another year and a half. (Insert thinking face emoji.) Will they now keep Noah Syndergaard and try to contend for a World Series title in 2020 with Stroman in the fold? Will they trade Syndergaard after all - having effectively replaced him with Stroman - in exchange for better prospects than the ones they sent to Toronto? Are they simply trying to monopolize the market's top starting-pitching talent in an attempt to squeeze out larger returns for Syndergaard, Stroman, and Zack Wheeler? I don't know, and neither do you!
Blue Jays trade IF/OF Eric Sogard to Rays for two players to be named later (July 28)
It's tough to meaningfully evaluate this trade from the Blue Jays' perspective because we don't know who they're getting yet, but the fact that they got anything for Sogard - a 33-year-old utility man brought in on a minor-league deal after putting up a .406 OPS in 2018 - renders it a win. It's also a testament to how bananas his season has been. Armed with a revamped swing, Sogard boasts full-season career bests in virtually every offensive category - from wRC+ (122) to isolated power (.178) to homers (10) - and has shown off unprecedented versatility in the field, logging time in the corner outfield in addition to his various infield duties. As such, he's a savvy, if unsexy, addition for the platoon-happy - and eminently unconventional - Rays, who now sit a half-game back of a wild-card spot, at 60-48, and have scuffled at the plate of late.
Presumably, Sogard will serve as a left-handed complement to third baseman Matt Duffy and shortstop Willy Adames - Sogard has terrorized right-handed pitching to the tune of an .874 OPS this season - but don't be surprised if he ends up playing some outfield, too, especially while Kevin Kiermaier remains sidelined. In hindsight, the Rays acquiring Sogard seems practically preordained. After all, he plays multiple positions, can hit a bit, and makes the league minimum.
Marlins trade RP Sergio Romo, SP Chris Vallimont to Twins for 1B Lewin Diaz (July 27)
The Twins' stranglehold on the American League Central has loosened significantly of late, and their leaky bullpen bears much of that responsibility. Over the last month, as Minnesota's cushion atop the division dwindled from eight games to two, its relief corps suffered the third-most meltdowns in the American League, with less win probability added than every other AL club's bullpen except that of the moribund Seattle Mariners. So, with their sights set on not only a division title but a deep October run, the Twins took a step to address that deficiency, picking up a declining Sergio Romo from Miami (along with a 22-year-old who's putting up big strikeout numbers in High-A).
At 36, Romo is well past his prime - his 21.2 percent strikeout rate is easily the lowest of his career - but he's still effective against right-handed hitters and an upgrade over the previous worst member of Minnesota's bullpen. Marginal gains can't be sneezed at when you're clinging to a slim division lead in late July. The Twins may one day regret parting ways with Lewin Diaz, a 22-year-old who's currently rocking a .302/.341/.587 line in Double-A, but few would fault them if they manage to secure their first AL Central title in nearly a decade this year. For the rebuilding Marlins, meanwhile, this was precisely the scenario they dreamed up when they signed Romo to a $2.5-million deal in February: that he'd inflate his value enough to move him for a "potential guy" ahead of the deadline.
Royals trade RP Jake Diekman to A's for OF Dairon Blanco, RP Ismael Aquino (July 27)
A heavy reliance on relief pitching contributed to the A's success in 2018 - they even used an opener in the AL wild-card game - and they're content to live or die by the same formula this season. As such, despite already fielding the second-best bullpen in the majors by WAR (even amid considerable regression from Blake Treinen), the Athletics acquired Diekman, a strikeout- and home-run-suppressing machine. Though he struggles at times with control, Diekman is the kind of bat-missing reliever who can help Oakland shorten the game even further, so to speak. Meanwhile, the A's likely had little consternation about the acquisition cost: Blanco is already 26 and only just made his debut at Double-A, while Aquino has issued 72 walks across 98 1/3 innings as a professional thus far.
Giants trade P Derek Holland to Cubs for cash (July 26)
It's easy to look at Holland's ghastly numbers and wonder how he makes the Cubs' bullpen better, but the 32-year-old can actually be quite effective if used properly, i.e. exclusively against left-handed hitters. Though Holland's surface stats over the last two seasons are decidedly unimpressive, he's held lefties to a .171/.258/.189 line over that span, allowing zero home runs in 253 plate appearances. His role may be niche, but Chicago - one of the combatants in a three-way dogfight for the National League Central crown - desperately needed left-handed relief help after shipping Mike Montgomery to Kansas City earlier this month. All it took the Cubs to acquire this unheralded lefty specialist was a bit of cash. In San Francisco, though, Holland was superfluous - the Giants currently have three other lefties in their bullpen - so kudos to the front office for turning its surplus into operating capital.
Astros trade 1B Tyler White to Dodgers for RP Andre Scrubb (July 25)
When you're trying to win a World Series, you can't have dead weight on your roster. The Astros made that abundantly clear last week when they designated Tyler White for assignment, presaging a parting of ways with the scuffling slugger who managed an .880 OPS over 304 plate appearances from 2017 through 2018. (They couldn't option him to the minors without exposing him to waivers.) And while the rationale was clear - the Astros needed the roster spot - and though they managed to recoup some value for their distressed asset by acquiring Scrubb, who owns a 2.40 ERA with a 28 percent strikeout rate in Double-A, this seemingly minor move could come back to haunt the Astros. The Dodgers have a history of turning other teams' castoffs into stars (see: Turner, Justin; Muncy, Max), and it's not hard to envision Houston and Los Angeles meeting again in the World Series, be it this year or in the next few seasons. Again, while the sample size is small, White was one of the better hitters in the American League as recently as a year ago. If any organization can get him right again, it's the Dodgers.
Jonah Birenbaum is theScore's senior MLB writer. He steams a good ham. You can find him on Twitter @birenball.