The case for AL Cy Young: Verlander vs. Cole

The only certainty surrounding the 2019 American League Cy Young Award is that it'll go to a member of the Houston Astros. Beyond that, it's anybody's guess whether the winner will be 36-year-old Justin Verlander or strikeout robot Gerrit Cole.

Since both right-handers put together historically great seasons, neither choice would be a bad one. In a just world, maybe they split the honor. In reality, only one will emerge on top.

Let's make the case for each pitcher now that the regular season has ended.

The Case for Verlander

An ageless wonder, Verlander continues to impress into his late 30s. His durability is unimpeachable, as he leads the majors in innings pitched during an era when 200-inning campaigns have become increasingly rare. He threw seven-plus innings in 17 of his 34 starts this season while recording two complete games.

One of those complete games was his third career no-hitter (and second against the Blue Jays). His performance this season would have been extraordinary even without the dominant outing against Toronto, but that start is the cherry on top. It could be the final push he needs among voters desperately trying to decide which Astros hurler to pick.

While Cole was overwhelming hitters with strikeouts, Verlander wasn't exactly pitching to contact. He struck out 300 batters in a season for the first time in his career.

However, Verlander's most impressive feat is how stingy he's been allowing baserunners. His 0.80 WHIP is the second-lowest in the live-ball era (since 1920) in a single season. Only Pedro Martinez in 2000 prevented opponents from reaching at a more impressive clip (0.74!). Additionally, only that version of Pedro, Luis Tiant in 1968, and Nolan Ryan in 1972 and 1991 produced better opponent's batting averages than Verlander's .171 over that time period.

Verlander's only blemish has been his propensity to serve up the long ball, as he allowed a career-high 36 home runs (many of which were solo shots). His homer total was especially high during a year when Verlander allowed only 137 hits, a career-low over a full season.

This isn't like Billy Chapel in "For Love of the Game," with a washed-up pitcher improbably pursuing greatness. Verlander has remained dominant, and he should hoist the hardware once more. - Wilson

The Case for Cole

Verlander has indeed been incredible, and likely deserved the Cy Young in 2012, 2016, and possibly 2018 when he finished as the runner-up. But that's no reason to reward him when his teammate has just been flat-out better.

In fact, Cole's 2019 campaign might be the most dominant since Bob Gibson's 1968 season - the year before the mound was lowered.

That can be a pretty jarring thing to hear because the pending free agent has to soar above the best pitching season of all time from Pedro Martinez in 1999, and incredible campaigns from Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, and others. But, with some era adjusting, it's not that far-fetched.

No pitcher has been a more prolific strikeout artist. A whopping 39.9% of plate appearances against Cole ended in a strikeout this year. Amazingly, it's not even that close throughout history, with Pedro's 37.5% in 1999 the previous best.

By FIP and FIP- though, Pedro is still in another league. His 31 FIP- in 1999 is about as unbreakable as records get. Not only does the second-best mark since 1969 pale in comparison (Randy Johnson's 45 FIP- in 1995), but so does Cole's 2019 mark of 59.

However, when you factor in the nature of how FIP, and its league-adjusted sibling FIP-, is calculated, the gap closes a bit.

First, the components of FIP are threefold: homers, walks, and strikeouts. Consider that balls are leaving the yard more than ever, which makes Cole's dominance even more impressive. Then, note that strikeouts are also at an all-time high, and yet Cole is the only pitcher this year who punched out more than 36% of batters faced.

Next, and most importantly, consider what league average means now. Anyone with a 100 FIP- is league average, which means that in 1999, Pedro finished an unfathomable 69 percentage points better than the average pitcher. This year, Cole's league-leading FIP is 41 percentage points better than the mean.

However, the league-average pitcher was so much worse in 1999. Two qualified pitchers notched a 100 FIP- that season: Kevin Appier (4.87 FIP) and Juan Guzman (4.75 FIP). Even further, a whopping 32 qualified pitchers finished lower than that, which changes the calculation of "league average."

Meanwhile, this year, two qualified pitchers finished with a 100 FIP-, with Wade Miley at 4.51 FIP and Adam Wainwright at 4.36 FIP. Miley was more than 20 points better than Guzman, and Wainwright finished more than 50 points higher than Appier.

Furthermore, teams have employed below-average pitchers far less now than in 1999, as a mere 15 hurlers posted a FIP- greater than 100 this year. That's less than half the total two decades ago when Pedro reigned.

In a different run environment, perhaps the argument for Cole doesn't have to be so convoluted. But such is the world we live in now. - Bradburn