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Fantasy: 5 post-hype sleepers

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As rookies emerge on the scene and fantasy owners get excited with their shiny new toys, it's easy to lose sight of those who haven't lived up to lofty expectations from years past.

Sometimes it takes longer for a player to realize his full potential. Here, we're going to try and identify five post-hype sleepers looking to finally make returns on investment at suppressed value.

Average draft positions are from FantasyPros as of March 3.

All stats for 2020 projections are from FanGraphs.

Willy Adames, Rays - SS (ADP: 354)

Joe Robbins / Getty Images Sport / Getty
AVG R HR RBI SB
.256 66 18 68 7

As recently as 2017, Adames was considered a top-20 prospect by MLB Pipeline, and while his numbers haven't been flashy, he hasn't laid an egg.

Though never hitting for a high average in the minors, he was consistently in the .275-.285 range. The .256 projection looks good on the surface after he hit .254 in 152 games a season ago, but his .320 BABIP was the lowest he'd produced at any level since 2013 in rookie ball.

If he continues to cut down on the strikeouts (29.4% in 2018 to 26.2% in 2019), and keeps making solid contact (only 13.4% soft last season), that batting average has potential to receive a significant bump. He's also crushed it so far in spring, batting .375/.500/.875 in five games.

Alex Reyes, Cardinals - RP (ADP: 373)

Joe Robbins / Getty Images Sport / Getty
IP W-L ERA WHIP K
44.0 2-2 3.96 1.35 53

Miles Mikolas' absence bumps Reyes' intrigue despite uninspiring results so far this spring. Regardless of his inability to showcase any kind of command as he returns from a slew of injuries, the fastball velocity has been on display. Heat isn't everything, but he's hitting high 90s, and if he can channel that consistently and tone down the wonky command a bit, it should be enough.

Reyes is being stretched out, so the plan appears to be for the Cardinals to use him as a starter. In 2018, he cruised through a brief stop at every minor-league level before his campaign was ended prematurely due to injury. He did himself no favors in 2019, either, when he punched a wall and broke his finger.

So maybe he's a bridge too far for most people. But Reyes has always been bitten by walks, so a lack of pinpoint accuracy on his pitches shouldn't be news. The upside is a K rate that strikes fear in the heart of opponents. He struck out 28.8% of batters at Triple-A last season. In 2016 - his last full campaign before the injuries took hold - he punched out 32%. If he flakes out as a starter, he might be converted to a shutdown closer. At his ADP, he's evidently worth a flier.

Ian Happ, Cubs - 2B/3B/OF (ADP: 398)

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AVG R HR RBI SB
.239 52 18 54 6

While Happ was mostly buried in Triple-A last season, he showed encouraging progress when called upon. The biggest knock against him has always been his propensity to whiff while not making nearly enough contact. An undisciplined approach landed Happ in the minors for most of 2019, but in the majors, he only struck out 25% of the time while hitting 11 home runs in 58 games.

Happ hit .264 despite a poor .286 BABIP. That doesn't mean he's a lock to improve, rather a suggestion he's made adjustments and better results could follow. The 25-year-old switch-hitter has eligibility at multiple positions, and his versatility should keep him on the big-league roster this year.

Clint Frazier, Yankees - OF (ADP: 440)

Alex Trautwig / Major League Baseball / Getty
AVG R HR RBI SB
.247 11 4 12 1

If necessity is the mother of invention, opportunity may be a close second. His projections are low mainly due to uncertainty surrounding his role with the Yankees and the fact they were released before Giancarlo Stanton injured himself again. With Aaron Hicks likewise sidelined and Aaron Judge's status up in the air, a door could be opening for the 25-year-old.

The Yankees also eschewed the chance to trade Frazier because they're presumably still high on his potential. Remember, in limited action a season ago as one of a chorus of outfield replacements, Frazier swatted 12 home runs in 69 games while batting .267. His 28.5% strikeout rate still left a bit to be desired, but he made more consistent contact while toiling away at Triple-A with a 20.8% K-rate.

Corbin Burnes, Brewers - SP/RP (ADP: 451)

Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Getty Images Sport / Getty
IP W-L ERA WHIP K
67.0 4-4 3.93 1.21 72

Home runs set Burnes aflame in 2019, and his first shot at securing a rotation spot in Milwaukee was unsurprisingly brief. A 38.6% HR/FB rate is unsustainable even if Burnes is somehow way more prone to the long ball than he ever was before.

It reeks of bad luck. At no level prior to last year did Burnes ever have a HR/9 above 1.00. Even in his first stint in the majors pitching out of the Brewers' bullpen in 2018, his HR/9 was 0.95 over 38 innings. Last year it ballooned to 3.12.

In spite of constantly serving up taters, Burnes showcased an ability to strike opponents out at the highest clip of his young career at any level. His 17.2% swinging strike rate ranked second on the Brewers behind only Josh Hader among pitchers who threw at least 35 innings in 2019. With the Brewers' rotation the biggest question mark in the organization, Burnes could easily get his shot to reclaim value, which makes him a fine final-round flier.

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