AL Cy Young best bets: Pay the price for Clevinger

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Gerrit Cole is the overwhelming favorite to be named AL Cy Young for the first time in 2020, which would make him the ninth different pitcher to win the award in the last nine years.

But is there any value in backing Cole at such a short price? Time is the great equalizer, and a shortened season promises variance.

It's much easier for a pitcher to sustain a good run over fewer games. That introduces plenty of value for bettors in the futures market, as we can look down the AL Cy Young oddsboard to identify pitchers worth backing at generous prices.

You can check out our NL Cy Young best bets here.

Mike Clevinger (+1000)

There are very few short prices I'd bite on heading into this 60-game campaign, but this number on Clevinger is just wrong. His skill set has never been in doubt; the issue with him has always been durability. A back injury limited him to 126 innings last year, and he was originally slated to miss the first month of this season after undergoing knee surgery in February. But Clevinger is ready to go, and concerns surrounding durability are mitigated in a truncated season.

When on the field, Clevinger is one of baseball's most dominant pitchers. His 2.71 ERA would have placed sixth among starters last season had he qualified, and that's while facing some really bad luck. He ranked 11th among starters with a .209 average against despite a .306 BABIP, which is miles above the league average and due for plenty of positive regression.

Clevinger's 2.49 FIP was second best in MLB last season among pitchers with at least 100 innings, just a hair below Max Scherzer's 2.45. He was also fifth with a 33.9 K%, while his BB% has come down in each season since he entered the league. Clevinger has as good a chance as anyone to win the Cy Young but isn't priced as such.

Jose Berrios (+2000)

There might not be a pitcher in MLB who will benefit more from a 60-game season than Jose Berrios. The Twins ace entered August last year with a 2.80 ERA before posting a disappointing 5.88 mark over the final two months. His 2018 campaign was a similar story. With this season lasting just over two months, fatigue won't derail Berrios' campaign as it has in the past.

Berrios is typically dominant when the tank is full. His ERA and walk rate have decreased every season, while his GB% has steadily improved. If the 26-year-old can continue his progression and avoid that late-season tailspin, a true breakout is on the cards.

Frankie Montas (+4000)

If you're looking to take a flier on someone down the board, you could do much worse than Montas, who missed a large chunk of last season through suspension. He worked tirelessly over the shutdown - focusing on stretching out his arm and building strength - prompting rave reviews out of Athletics camp. All signs point to him being named Opening Day starter.

Montas' fastball velocity is already in the high-90s, and he's got a terrific arsenal of pitches, including a swing-inducing slider and a splitter that generates a lot of outs. He improved his SwStr% from 8.6 in 2018 to 11.5 last season and allowed a barrels-per-plate-appearance percentage of just 2.8 - the second-lowest mark in MLB among pitchers with at least 250 batted-ball events.

He generates a ton of ground balls. He strikes out 26.1% of batters, and walks just 5.8% - both would have been top-20 marks among starters last season had he qualified. Through 60 games in 2019, Montas went 8-2 with a 2.84 ERA, and there's reason to believe he will be even better this season, leading the rotation for a team that should find plenty of success. It's a recipe to turn voters' heads.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.