World Series odds update: 3 teams to buy, sell after first 15 games

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We've nearly reached the quarter mark of the 2020 MLB season. Though not every team has played exactly 15 games - hello, 7-3 Marlins - the sample size is large enough for us to start finding some early value before the market catches up.

Here are the updated World Series odds, with three teams to buy and three teams to sell after the first quarter of the campaign:

Buy

Cleveland Indians (+2000)

How could you not buy this team after the rotation combined for a remarkable 2.11 ERA through 14 games? The Indians have three of the top 15 pitchers in fWAR: Shane Bieber (first), Zach Plesac (second), and Aaron Civale (13th). Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger, meanwhile, are both ace material and combined to allow just three hits through 11 2/3 innings in their starts last week.

Offense has been an issue this year, but Cleveland's star-studded lineup finally came alive last week. Since Aug. 4, the team ranks fifth in runs scored (26) and second in scoring margin (+3.67). Maybe that's a fluke, but the pitching certainly isn't. This team has too much talent to wait any longer.

Cincinnati Reds (+2200)

Imagine the Indians with a more top-heavy rotation and a better lineup. That just about sums up the Reds, who come at a longer price and are potentially better suited for the postseason. Trevor Bauer leads all qualified starters in ERA (0.93) after a blistering start, while he, Sonny Gray, and Luis Castillo rank top five in xFIP. That portends a nearly unhittable three-man rotation come playoff time.

The Reds' offense has suffered from a league-worst .229 BABIP, yet it still ranks 19th in OPS (.695); better times are ahead for an order that's already producing behind MVP contender Nick Castellanos. Buy now before Cincinnati shows its true upside.

Colorado Rockies (+5000)

The best bet of the season thus far has been ... the Rockies? Colorado did nothing in the offseason to improve last year's 91-loss team, but it turns out the club already had all the talent it needed. Colorado boasts the second-highest scoring margin (+2.07) in MLB and ranks top six in both ERA (2.84) and OPS (.757), resulting in an 11-4 record with a $743 return on $100 bets.

Each of the team's top four arms has an ERA below 3.00 or a WHIP below 1.00, while its hitters have provided stellar run support behind strong batted-ball metrics. It could all be a matter of small sample size, but at 50-1, it's worth coming along for the ride.

Sell

Houston Astros (+1000)

It's officially time to start worrying about the Astros. Justin Verlander has potentially thrown his last pitch this year, while secondary ace Zack Greinke has seen dramatic drops in velocity with almost every offering. It wouldn't matter so much if not for the rest of the rotation's extreme inconsistency, and the bullpen hasn't been much help, either.

Houston's lineup has been among the best in the league for years, but only three players have an OPS above .750 in 2020. Just one - Carlos Correa - ranks top 30 in FanGraphs' offensive rating. Even if positive regression is on the way, you're paying for a finished product at this price. Stay far, far away.

New York Mets (+1800)

Where's the value here? The Mets' rotation is a mess beyond Jacob deGrom, outdone only by one of the shakiest bullpens in baseball. New York's bats are making contact but aren't hitting the ball hard, so a .315 BABIP - the second-highest in MLB - is sure to regress. After that, what's left?

Any team with deGrom and a few legit power hitters is worth a look, but 18-1 is simply unpalatable for this 7-9 squad. Wait for a losing streak and a steep drop in price before considering a bet on this club.

Los Angeles Angels (+2500)

No team has been a worse bet this season than the Angels, who have cost bettors nearly $1,000 on $100 bets en route to a 5-11 record. With apologies to the resurgent Dylan Bundy, there isn't an ace on this staff, which means a talented lineup has to carry the load. That hasn't been the case through 16 games, though. Shohei Ohtani (.171) and Anthony Rendon (.103) are hitting below .200, and Mike Trout is far from his MVP self.

This was already a bad price on a top-heavy order and thin rotation, and it hasn't adjusted enough after a predictably bad start. You simply aren't getting value waiting on a miracle.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.