MLB plays of the day: Montas will silence D-Backs' bats

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We got back in the win column Monday after a rough Sunday snapped our 7-1 run on MLB picks. Here are our best bets for Tuesday's slate.

Oakland Athletics (-155) at Arizona Diamondbacks (+135)

Starting pitchers: Frankie Montas (2-1, 1.57 ERA) vs. Luke Weaver (0-3, 11.85 ERA)

Is any pitcher performing worse than Weaver is right now? The Diamondbacks' No. 4 starter owns MLB's worst ERA among those with 10 innings pitched, and he's in the bottom-fifth percentile in xwOBA (.447), xSLG (.694), xERA (9.24), and barrel rate (17.8%). He's also giving up 4.51 homers per nine innings, the most in baseball.

Conversely, Montas is yet to give up a home run this year, and he's living up to the immense potential he teased during the 2019 campaign. All four of his primary pitches have an xwOBA below .300 - helping him pitch deep in games and keep hitters off-balance - and his hard-hit rate (20.3%) is third-best among qualified starters.

If this game comes down to the final frames, the Athletics have the advantage there, too. Their bullpen is second-best by fWAR (1.8), while the Diamondbacks' relievers rank in the bottom 10 by most metrics and are especially prone to the long ball, which has saved Oakland numerous times this year in late-game situations.

Pick: Athletics (-155)

Cleveland Indians (-200) at Pittsburgh Pirates (+170)

Starting pitchers: Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 3.22 ERA) vs. JT Brubaker (0-0, 3.38 ERA)

Nothing says "bet the under" quite like a matchup between the worst offenses in baseball; the Indians (.642) and Pirates (.615) own the two lowest team OPS marks in the league, and though Cleveland's lineup is more talented than that suggests, it's still helped contribute to the team's incredible 16-6 under record, which is the best in the majors.

The Indians' offense picked it up recently with a combined 21 runs in a three-game series versus Detroit. But two of those contests were against starters Ivan Nova and Michael Fulmer, who allowed 11 runs in six innings. Brubaker is better than both of them. The 26-year-old prospect displayed filthy off-speed stuff during his first start and has allowed a run in just one of his nine innings pitched this year.

Even if Cleveland plates a few runs against the rookie, the Pirates will be hard-pressed to do so against Carrasco. The numbers from his last start are a bit misleading - he'd located the ball well in each of his first three appearances, and his strikeout potential is still immense, especially against a Pittsburgh lineup that'll swing at anything.

Pick: Under 8.5 (even)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.