MLB plays of the day: Under brewing for Hernandez, deGrom
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
Kyle Hart was as bad as expected on Tuesday, but a late comeback by the Red Sox held us to 1-1 on our picks after a perfect run on Monday. Here are our best bets for Wednesday's action.
Miami Marlins (+215) at New York Mets (-265)
Starting pitchers: Elieser Hernandez (1-0, 2.29 ERA) vs. Jacob deGrom (2-0, 1.93 ERA)
It's been a week since the Mets last scored a run. Sure, four of their games last week were postponed, but they were also shut out in both legs of Tuesday's doubleheader against Miami - the first time New York had gone scoreless twice in one day since 1975.
It won't get any easier Wednesday against Hernandez, one of the best young surprises of this season. The 25-year-old righty showed promise last year behind decent soft-contact rates, but a 5.03 ERA didn't cut it. So he ditched his changeup almost entirely this season, and it's worked - he's striking out 32.9% of batters with a measly 3.9% walk rate.
He's attacking the zone almost 60% of the time, but batters are making less contact against him than ever. His sweeping slider is a big reason why. Even though 56.6% of his sliders are thrown in the zone, hitters still have a 42.6% whiff rate with just two hits against it.
We don't need to explain why deGrom is a worthy counterpart in an under bet, but here are a couple of intriguing trends: He's 6-2 to the under in his last eight home games, and he's a career 13-6-1 to the under when the Mets combine to score three or fewer runs in the two games before his start.
Pick: Under 7
Chicago Cubs (-150) at Detroit Tigers (+130)
Starting pitchers: Jon Lester (2-1, 5.06 ERA) vs. Michael Fulmer (0-0, 9.53 ERA)
It wasn't hard to predict Lester's inevitable collapse after he posted a 1.06 ERA through his first three games, but boy, did it come quickly. The Cubs veteran allowed two home runs against the Brewers and four against the White Sox in consecutive starts - which is what happens when you can't miss bats but continue to attack the zone with sub-90 mph fastballs.
The Tigers aren't an elite hitting team, but they do own the highest hard-hit rate (42.4%) in the majors, per Baseball Savant. Their problem this year has been an MLB-worst whiff rate (32.4%), but Lester has the lowest swinging strike rate (5.2%) of any starter this season. Translation: the Tigers hit it hard when they make contact, and Lester delivers plenty of it.
Fulmer's counting stats tell a pretty grim tale, but it's even worse under the hood. His xSLG (.671), xwOBA (.457), and xERA (9.64) all rank in the second percentile among pitchers, and he's yet to last more than three innings this year. Part of that is by design - he's recovering from Tommy John surgery - but the design isn't working, as the Tigers have allowed seven runs per game over his four starts.
The Cubs have gone 8-3 to the over in their last 11 games, mostly against young or inconsistent starters. Count Fulmer in both groups. With Lester opposite him, this game could break the scoreboard.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-120)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.