Looking ahead to the 2022 Hall of Fame ballot

It's been less than 24 hours since the National Baseball Hall of Fame announced the results of the 2021 election, but that doesn't mean it's too early to look ahead to next January. Here's a very early forecast at what the 2022 Hall of Fame ballot might look like and who could be enshrined.

The newcomers

They should be first-ballot, but ...

This vote should have been A-Rod's coronation. For all his faults, Rodriguez is - by sheer numbers, at least - among the five or 10 greatest players ever. But his legacy remains tarnished by steroids, including an unprecedented 162-game suspension in 2014 for his role in baseball's Biogenesis scandal. Four years earlier, he admitted to using PEDs during his tenure with the Texas Rangers from 2001-03, before MLB implemented testing and punishments.

A-Rod is his own animal and can't be compared to Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, or even Manny Ramirez. Outside of his television gigs, Rodriguez has become a near pariah in the sport. It's impossible to predict how voters will treat him. Could a player with 696 home runs, 3,115 hits, and more career WAR than every shortstop in history save for Honus Wagner actually go one-and-done? It seems unlikely - but it's A-Rod, so nothing's off the table.

Then, there's Ortiz, a hero in New England and one of baseball's most beloved players of the past 20 years. He's a member of the 500-homer club, on the shortlist for the greatest at his position, and might be the best playoff hitter ever. He should sail in, but ... will voters bristle at electing a strict DH on the first ballot? The old-school crew might perish at the thought. And speaking of PEDs, how will Ortiz's positive result during the supposedly anonymous testing in 2003 be weighed into the equation?

It's fitting that these two will debut as Bonds and Clemens exit. The lead-up to next January's announcement will be one of controversy, rationalizing, and hot takes of all kinds that could very well melt Twitter and continue until Rodriguez and Ortiz's eligibilities expire.

Other notable 1st-timers

The next tier of first-time candidates includes some big names who won plenty of individual hardware, although their candidacies (however serious they may be) will need time to grow.

Teixeira, a dependable force and all-around threat at first base for 14 seasons, is one of just five switch-hitters with 400 career homers and was a five-time Gold Glove defender, but he falls short on several fronts when compared to other first basemen. Rollins doesn't quite measure up to other shortstops via metrics like JAWS, but he has four Gold Gloves, an MVP, and a World Series title during his long run as a pillar of the Phillies' recent success - all qualities that can play well in some voters' eyes.

For those who love short-term excellence, there's also Fielder, who looked to be sailing toward 500 homers and a plaque until a career-ending neck injury at age 32. If Johan Santana going one-and-done is any indication, players whose peaks were brief but remarkable - or even, in some cases, among the best of their time - don't often get looks on the BBWAA ballot. And don't sleep on Nathan, the former All-Star closer with 377 saves. He's not the biggest name at his position, but Billy Wagner's surge could benefit Nathan - who has him beat in both JAWS and WAR - long term.

One and done

These players logged the required 10 years of major-league service time and are therefore eligible, but not guaranteed, to appear on next year's ballot.

The players listed below are unlikely to receive even a single vote, let alone reach 5%. That shouldn't be viewed as an insult to their excellent careers that include multiple All-Star appearances, championships, and other awards. Simply making the ballot is a prestigious honor.

Position Players: Michael Bourn, Marlon Byrd, Billy Butler, Carl Crawford, Coco Crisp, Jeff Francoeur, Ryan Howard, Omar Infante, Angel Pagan, A.J. Pierzynski, Juan Uribe

Pitchers: Scott Kazmir, Colby Lewis, Kyle Lohse, Javier Lopez, Jonathan Papelbon, Matt Thornton, Ryan Vogelsong

Returning candidates

On the doorstep

Schilling's jump was minor, and he might have dropped below 70% if votes were accepted after many voters changed their tune following his support for the Jan. 6 insurrection. Schilling asked to be removed from next year's ballot, though it's unclear if the Hall will listen.

Stuck in the mud

They're the best players of their time, and they're spinning their wheels. Bonds and Clemens have maxed out their support, and they aren't getting in any time soon, barring a miracle.

Getting a bump

Rolen's push over 50% has him within the induction range. He gained 72 votes this year, and there's no reason to think he won't do it again in 2022. His chances of being inducted next summer are there.

Rolen's jump should please the other names on this list, who also made significant strides Tuesday. Wagner, Helton, Jones, or Sheffield could easily replicate Rolen's jump on the next ballot, as support is growing for all of them. The incoming class leaves more room for growth.

Trying again

Vizquel suffered a small drop in support after domestic abuse allegations surfaced in December, and he was the only returning candidate to lose support. As an already polarizing candidate from a baseball standpoint, he might not recover those votes as easily next year.

The rest of this group remains stagnated in the middle, having made only minor gains on this ballot. Ramirez, Sosa, and Kent all have their supporters but are nowhere near induction and running short on time.