Everything you need to know about the NL East
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The NL East is a beast, with four of the five teams projected to post winning records in 2021 in what could be baseball's most tightly contested division. The Braves have maintained a stranglehold in the NL East in recent years, but the other teams have been busy and could challenge Atlanta for the crown.
Atlanta Braves
2020 record: 35-25 (1st in NL East)
Payroll: $155.7M
O/U win total: 82
World Series odds: +900
3-year trend: 2018 (1st); 2019 (1st); 2020 (1st)
Highest projected WAR: Ronald Acuna Jr. (5.3)
X-factor: Mike Soroka
Key injuries: Soroka, Touki Toussaint
Prospect to watch: Cristian Pache (MLB.com: No. 12)
Winter report card: B+
Projected Lineup
| Order | Player | POS. | PROJ. WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | RF | 5.3 |
| 2 | Ozzie Albies (S) | 2B | 3.6 |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman (L) | 1B | 4.5 |
| 4 | Marcell Ozuna | LF | 2.9 |
| 5 | Travis d'Arnaud | C | 2.3 |
| 6 | Dansby Swanson | SS | 1.8 |
| 7 | Austin Riley | 3B | 1.7 |
| 8 | Cristian Pache | CF | -0.1 |
Bench
| Player | POS. | PROJ.WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Jackson | C | 0.1 |
| Ehire Adrianza (S) | IF/OF | -0.1 |
| Pablo Sandoval (S) | 1B/3B | 0.0 |
| Ender Inciarte (L) | OF | 0.1 |
The Braves re-upped Ozuna to fold him back into a lineup already featuring the reigning NL MVP in Freeman and All-Stars Acuna and Albies. With Pache on the roster for a full season and Swanson's continued emergence, the Braves' offense may be in even better shape than it already was. Atlanta was one of only two teams to hit more than 100 home runs in 2020, and no lineup posted a better OPS than the Braves' .832.
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | PROJ. IP | PROJ. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Max Fried (L) | 171 | 3.76 |
| Charlie Morton | 168 | 3.72 |
| Ian Anderson | 138 | 4.21 |
| Drew Smyly (L) | 134 | 4.15 |
Bullpen
| Pitcher | PROJ. IP | PROJ. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Will Smith (L) | 64 | 3.62 |
| Chris Martin | 65 | 3.75 |
| A.J. Minter (L) | 60 | 3.94 |
| Tyler Matzek (L) | 58 | 3.58 |
| Grant Dayton (L) | 38 | 4.41 |
| Luke Jackson | 44 | 4.03 |
| Nate Jones | 26 | 4.20 |
| Sean Newcomb (L) | 35 | 4.04 |
| Josh Tomlin | 50 | 4.77 |
| Huascar Ynoa | 25 | 4.61 |
The Braves revamped the rotation by signing veterans Morton and Smyly to go alongside the young core of arms. Soroka will be an added bonus when he's fully recovered from a serious Achilles injury. Fried and Anderson helped steady the ship when Soroka initially went down en route to a third consecutive division title last season. Bryse Wilson may round out the rotation after the first week or so, but Atlanta appears ready to open the season without a fifth starter.
Miami Marlins
2020 record: 31-29 (2nd)
Payroll: $78.2M
O/U win total: 68
World Series odds: +6000
3-year trend: 2018 (5th); 2019 (5th); 2020 (2nd)
Highest projected WAR: Pablo Lopez (2.6)
X-factor: Lewis Brinson
Key injuries: Jeff Brigham, Jesus Sanchez, Jorge Guzman
Prospect to watch: JJ Bleday (MLB.com: No. 20)
Winter report card: C+
Projected Lineup
| Order | Player | POS. | PROJ. WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corey Dickerson (L) | LF | 0.8 |
| 2 | Starling Marte | CF | 2.3 |
| 3 | Jesus Aguilar | 1B | 1.1 |
| 4 | Adam Duvall | RF | 0.7 |
| 5 | Brian Anderson | 3B | 2.4 |
| 6 | Jazz Chisholm (L) | 2B | 0.1 |
| 7 | Jorge Alfaro | C | 0.2 |
| 8 | Miguel Rojas | SS | 1.8 |
Bench
| Player | POS. | PROJ. WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Chad Wallach | C | 0.4 |
| Garrett Cooper | 1B/OF | 0.3 |
| Jon Berti | IF/OF | 0.8 |
| Magneuris Sierra (L) | OF | -0.1 |
The Marlins returned to the postseason in 2020 after a 16-year drought. Projections don't have them making a return trip in 2021, but the club has done a remarkable job rebuilding from the ground up. Miami was recently listed as having the No. 4-ranked system by MLB Pipeline. Maybe Marte and Dickerson get dealt to strengthen the system further if the organization doesn't give either an extension. After Isan Diaz struggled throughout spring, Chisholm earned the starting job at second base.
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | PROJ. IP | PROJ. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 181 | 4.31 |
| Pablo Lopez | 160 | 3.85 |
| Elieser Hernandez | 135 | 4.42 |
| Sixto Sanchez | 138 | 3.78 |
| Trevor Rogers (L) | 97 | 3.96 |
Bullpen
| Pitcher | PROJ. IP | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Bass | 63 | 3.89 |
| Yimi Garcia | 63 | 4.16 |
| Dylan Floro | 64 | 3.96 |
| Richard Bleier (L) | 59 | 3.73 |
| John Curtiss | 56 | 4.18 |
| Adam Cimber | 48 | 4.27 |
| Ross Detwiler (L) | 42 | 3.98 |
| Zach Pop | 34 | 3.96 |
| Paul Campbell | 23 | 4.45 |
The pitching staff is already bearing fruit from the bustling farm system, and only Rogers is completely homegrown after being selected 13th overall in 2017. Alcantara, Lopez, and Sanchez were acquired in the deals for Marcell Ozuna, Dee Strange-Gordon, and J.T. Realmuto, respectively. Meanwhile, the Marlins restocked the bullpen this offseason via trade and free agency. Other young hurlers who could make waves for Miami this season include Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, and Nick Neidert.
New York Mets
2020 record: 26-34 (T-4th)
Payroll: $193.8M
O/U win total: 96
World Series odds: +1000
3-year trend: 2018 (4th); 2019 (3rd); 2020 (4th)
Highest projected WAR: Jacob deGrom (6.6)
X-factor: Dominic Smith
Key injuries: Noah Syndergaard, Carlos Carrasco, Seth Lugo, Jose Martinez
Prospect to watch: Khalil Lee
Winter report card: A
Projected Lineup
| Order | Player | POS. | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Nimmo (L) | CF | 2.1 |
| 2 | Francisco Lindor (S) | SS | 5.0 |
| 3 | Michael Conforto (L) | RF | 3.1 |
| 4 | Pete Alonso | 1B | 2.7 |
| 5 | Dominic Smith (L) | LF | 0.8 |
| 6 | Jeff McNeil (L) | 2B | 3.3 |
| 7 | J.D. Davis | 3B | 1.7 |
| 8 | James McCann | C | 1.0 |
Bench
| Player | POS. | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Tomas Nido | C | 0.2 |
| Luis Guillorme | IF | 0.2 |
| Jonathan Villar | IF/OF | 0.4 |
| Albert Almora Jr. | OF | 0.0 |
| Kevin Pillar | OF | 0.3 |
Lindor is clearly the talk of the borough in Queens, and it's hardly a surprise. It's not every day that a team lands a perennial MVP candidate in the offseason. Top-to-bottom, the Mets' lineup has no easy outs, and New York could push Atlanta to the brink if Smith can stick as the primary left fielder while building on an impressive 2020.
Projected Rotation
| Player | PROJ. IP | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | 201 | 2.78 |
| Marcus Stroman | 164 | 3.84 |
| Taijuan Walker | 141 | 4.46 |
| David Peterson (L) | 100 | 4.07 |
| Joey Lucchesi (L) | 66 | 4.33 |
Bullpen
| Player | PROJ. IP | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Edwin Diaz | 63 | 2.80 |
| Trevor May | 64 | 3.38 |
| Miguel Castro | 62 | 3.67 |
| Dellin Betances | 58 | 3.80 |
| Jeurys Familia | 56 | 3.86 |
| Aaron Loup (L) | 52 | 3.63 |
| Jacob Barnes | 38 | 4.01 |
| Robert Gsellman | 26 | 4.41 |
Adding Walker and Lucchesi is proving prudent after Carlos Carrasco suffered a hamstring injury and while Noah Syndergaard works his way back from Tommy John surgery. When they're ready to join the rotation, the Mets will have formidable depth on both sides of the ball. And even with the injuries, deGrom should offer ample support as he comes off another top-three finish in Cy Young voting, and Stroman returns to the mound after opting out of 2020.
Philadelphia Phillies
2020 record: 28-32 (3rd)
Payroll: $198.5M
O/U win total: 83
World Series odds: +3500
3-year trend: 2018 (3rd); 2019 (4th); 2020 (3rd)
Highest projected WAR: Aaron Nola (4.2)
X-factor: Zach Eflin
Key injuries: Seranthony Dominguez, Brad Miller
Prospect to watch: Spencer Howard (MLB.com: No. 42)
Winter report card: B-
Projected Lineup
| Order | Player | POS. | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew McCutchen | LF | 1.3 |
| 2 | J.T. Realmuto | C | 3.7 |
| 3 | Bryce Harper (L) | RF | 3.8 |
| 4 | Rhys Hoskins | 1B | 2.5 |
| 5 | Alec Bohm | 3B | 2.9 |
| 6 | Didi Gregorius (L) | SS | 2.1 |
| 7 | Jean Segura | 2B | 2.0 |
| 8 | Adam Haseley (L) | CF | 0.3 |
Bench
| Player | POS. | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Knapp (S) | C | 0.0 |
| Matt Joyce (L) | OF | 0.0 |
| Roman Quinn (S) | OF | -0.1 |
| Ronald Torreyes | IF | 0.0 |
| Brad Miller (L) | IF/OF | 0.1 |
Signing Harper, trading for Realmuto, and hiring Joe Girardi to replace Gabe Kapler as the skipper hasn't solved the Phillies' postseason drought, which has now reached nine seasons. Bringing in Dave Dombrowski to run baseball operations is its own kind of win-now move. Re-signing Realmuto and Gregorius means they're running back virtually the same lineup as a year ago, but it's clear the bats weren't the problem as the Phillies finished 11th in home runs (82), seventh in wOBA (.336), and ninth in wRC+ (109). Sure, there's room for improvement, but several playoff teams reached October with worse returns on offense.
Projected Rotation
| Player | PROJ. IP | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 190 | 3.69 |
| Zack Wheeler | 181 | 3.99 |
| Zach Eflin | 168 | 4.48 |
| Matt Moore (L) | 136 | 4.93 |
| Chase Anderson | 107 | 5.04 |
Bullpen
| Player | PROJ. IP | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Hector Neris | 65 | 4.06 |
| Archie Bradley | 67 | 4.21 |
| Jose Alvarado (L) | 56 | 3.39 |
| Brandon Kintzler | 62 | 4.55 |
| Connor Brogdon | 52 | 4.18 |
| Vince Velasquez | 119 | 4.30 |
| David Hale | 44 | 4.29 |
| Sam Coonrod | 30 | 4.06 |
Only three clubs finished with a worse team ERA than Philadelphia (5.20) last season, and that's with Nola, Wheeler, and Eflin each producing sub-4.00 marks. Much of the futility was due to a historically terrible bullpen that blew more saves than it successfully converted while cobbling together a 7.06 ERA. It's no surprise, then, that improving the relief corps was a top priority. Bradley, Alvarado, and Kintzler - all new arrivals - have each served as a closer at various times in their careers and could stabilize the team's biggest weakness: an inability to preserve any lead.
Washington Nationals
2020 record: 26-34 (T-4th)
Payroll: $193.8M
O/U win total: 85
World Series odds: +4500
3-year trend: 2018 (2nd); 2019 (2nd); 2020 (4th)
Highest projected WAR: Juan Soto (5.8)
X-factor: Victor Robles
Key injuries: Will Harris
Prospect to watch: Seth Romero
Winter report card: B
Projected Lineup
| Order | Player | POS. | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victor Robles | CF | 1.2 |
| 2 | Juan Soto (L) | RF | 5.8 |
| 3 | Trea Turner | SS | 4.0 |
| 4 | Josh Bell (S) | 1B | 0.8 |
| 5 | Kyle Schwarber (L) | LF | 1.9 |
| 6 | Starlin Castro | 3B | 0.5 |
| 7 | Yan Gomes | C | 0.8 |
| 8 | Josh Harrison | 2B | -0.1 |
Bench
| Player | Pos. | PRoj. WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Avila (L) | C | 0.8 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 1B | 0.0 |
| Jordy Mercer | IF | 0.0 |
| Hernan Perez | IF/OF | 0.0 |
| Andrew Stevenson (L) | OF | -0.2 |
What to make of the Nationals' roster? Their season trajectory went very similarly in 2020 as it did in 2019, but the club couldn't make a second-half surge with the shorter schedule. There are a lot of questions beyond Soto and Turner. Can Bell regain his 2019 form (37 homers, 135 wRC+) and offer the desired lineup protection? Can Robles rebound and follow-through on his 20-20 potential? Carter Kieboom was positioned to be the Opening Day third baseman before a horrible spring forced the team to demote him to Triple-A.
Projected Rotation
| Player | PROJ. IP | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 179 | 3.53 |
| Patrick Corbin (L) | 190 | 4.01 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 163 | 4.05 |
| Jon Lester (L) | 135 | 5.01 |
| Joe Ross | 127 | 4.97 |
Bullpen
| Player | PROJ. IP | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Brad Hand (L) | 64 | 3.88 |
| Tanner Rainey | 62 | 3.86 |
| Daniel Hudson | 61 | 4.44 |
| Wander Suero | 58 | 4.54 |
| Kyle Finnegan | 54 | 4.07 |
| Luis Avilan (L) | 24 | 4.39 |
| Erick Fedde | 74 | 4.88 |
| Austin Voth | 54 | 4.51 |
All eyes will be on Scherzer in the final season of his contract. Injuries have limited him a bit in recent years, but he's fulfilled his end of the bargain over the life of the deal. He's getting his sixth Opening Day start with the club, breaking his own Nationals record (Steve Rogers has the franchise mark with nine). If healthy, the Nats have one of the most imposing trios to top any rotation in baseball. With Hand's addition, the bullpen is a strength instead of a weakness, which has been a long time coming. Reinforcements could come sooner than later, too, as Harris does not have a blood clot in his throwing arm as was originally suspected.