Everything you need to know about the AL Central
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The AL Central is quietly shaping up to be one of the more fascinating divisions in baseball this season. Two of the best teams in the Junior Circuit - the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins - will most likely be battling for divisional domination in what should be a fun and heated rivalry. But don't overlook the young Cleveland Indians or plucky Kansas City Royals, who both have their sights set on surprising the baseball world.
Here's everything you need to know about the AL Central.
Chicago White Sox
2020 record: 35-25 (T-2nd in AL Central)
Payroll: $167M
O/U win total: 83
World Series odds: +1200
3-year trend: 2018 (4th); 2019 (3rd); 2020 (2nd)
Highest projected WAR: Yasmani Grandal (4.5)
X-factor: Nick Madrigal
Key Injuries: Adam Engel, Eloy Jimenez
Prospect to watch: Andrew Vaughn (MLB.com: No. 14)
Winter report card: A-
Projected Lineup
ORDER | PLAYER | POS. | PROJ. WAR |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Tim Anderson | SS | 2.2 |
2 | Yasmani Grandal (S) | C | 4.5 |
3 | Jose Abreu | 1B | 1.6 |
4 | Yoan Moncada (S) | 3B | 3.0 |
5 | Luis Robert | CF | 3.1 |
6 | Adam Eaton (L) | RF | 1.3 |
7 | Andrew Vaughn | LF | -1.5 |
8 | Zack Collins (L) | DH | 0.1 |
9 | Nick Madrigal | 2B | 2.4 |
Bench
PLAYER | POS | PROJ. WAR |
---|---|---|
Yermin Mercedes | C/IF | 0.0 |
Jake Lamb (L) | 3B/1B | 0.0 |
Leury Garcia (S) | IF/OF | 0.0 |
Billy Hamilton (S) | OF | 0.0 |
The White Sox offense's explosive core returns mostly intact. Anderson - a former batting champion - and Abreu - the reigning AL MVP - continue to serve as the anchors of this unit, while youngsters Moncada and Robert should continue to grow into even more powerful impact bats. But Chicago will be missing one major piece for most, if not all, of the year in Jimenez, who ruptured his pectoral muscle trying to steal a homer late in camp. Jimenez's bat will be replaced by that of Vaughn, who drew rave reviews with his spring performance. But that's a lot to put on the shoulders of a rookie first baseman who hasn't played above High-A and might have to learn to play left field on the fly.
This White Sox lineup is talented enough to withstand Jimenez's injury, especially if Vaughn lives up to the hype, but the absence of their young slugger will significantly test the team's depth. Chicago still has a great group of hitters, but the margin for error just got thinner.
Projected Rotation
PITCHER | PROJ. IP | PROJ. ERA |
---|---|---|
Lucas Giolito | 172 | 4.05 |
Dallas Keuchel (L) | 185 | 4.57 |
Lance Lynn | 191 | 4.21 |
Dylan Cease | 133 | 4.67 |
Carlos Rodon (L) | 116 | 4.78 |
Bullpen
PITCHER | PROJ. IP | PROJ. ERA |
---|---|---|
Liam Hendriks | 68 | 3.34 |
Aaron Bummer (L) | 62 | 3.30 |
Evan Marshall | 60 | 4.12 |
Garrett Crochet (L) | 53 | 2.76 |
Codi Heuer | 58 | 3.99 |
Matt Foster | 56 | 4.52 |
Jose Ruiz | 8 | 4.66 |
Michael Kopech | 109 | 4.30 |
The White Sox added Lynn via trade to complete a very talented trio atop the rotation, alongside Giolito and Keuchel. Giolito came into his own last year and should continue to grow into the ace of this staff. Both Lynn and Keuchel help as steady innings-eaters, and that's important considering the club's No. 4 and 5 starters are a bit weaker.
Hendriks, the reigning AL Reliever of the Year, was Chicago's biggest free-agent acquisition and will be a huge boost as the anchor of the bullpen. Crochet, the 11th overall pick in last June's draft, will be the unit's most important left-hander. Keeping Kopech in the bullpen is wise for now, seeing as he hasn't pitched since 2018.
Cleveland Indians
2020 record: 35-25 (T-2nd)
Payroll: $62.7M
O/U win total: 86
World Series odds: +3500
3-year trend: 2018 (1st); 2019 (2nd); 2020 (2nd)
Highest projected WAR: Shane Bieber (5.3)
X-factor: Zach Plesac
Key Injuries: Cam Hill
Prospect to watch: Triston McKenzie (MLB.com: No. 51)
Winter report card: C-
Projected Lineup
ORDER | PLAYER | POS. | PROJ. WAR |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Cesar Hernandez (S) | 2B | 1.7 |
2 | Eddie Rosario (L) | LF | 1.6 |
3 | Jose Ramirez (S) | 3B | 5.1 |
4 | Franmil Reyes | DH | 1.4 |
5 | Josh Naylor (L) | RF | 1.0 |
6 | Jake Bauers (L) | 1B | 0.3 |
7 | Roberto Perez | C | 1.6 |
8 | Andres Gimenez (L) | SS | 1.3 |
9 | Ben Gamel (L) | CF | 0.1 |
Bench
PLAYER | POS | PROJ. WAR |
---|---|---|
Austin Hedges | C | 0.9 |
Amed Rosario | SS/OF | 1.2 |
Jordan Luplow | OF | 0.6 |
Yu Chang | IF | 0.0 |
Even with Ramirez still holding steady at third base, this lineup took a monumental hit when the team traded Francisco Lindor. Still, there are some potential bright spots here beyond Ramirez. Naylor - part of the return for Mike Clevinger last summer - is the young outfielder Cleveland's been seeking for several years and is looking to build on his brief but outstanding performance in the wild-card series. The powerful Reyes brings some huge punch to the middle of the order, while Eddie Rosario - a free-agent signing - owns stellar career numbers at Progressive Field.
Center field is a glaring weak spot for this lineup. Gamel - a veteran left-handed bat - and Rosario - a shortstop by trade - are likely to share the position. Both players have defensive issues in center, and Rosario's been learning the outfield on the fly. Youngsters Oscar Mercado and Bradley Zimmer were candidates for the center-field job, but both struggled in spring training.
Projected Rotation
PITCHER | PROJ. IP | PROJ. ERA |
---|---|---|
Shane Bieber | 195 | 3.27 |
Zach Plesac | 158 | 4.73 |
Aaron Civale | 144 | 4.70 |
Triston McKenzie | 127 | 4.66 |
Bullpen
PITCHER | PROJ. IP | PROJ. ERA |
---|---|---|
James Karinchak | 64 | 3.37 |
Nick Wittgren | 66 | 4.50 |
Emmanuel Clase | 60 | 3.58 |
Bryan Shaw | 52 | 4.96 |
Phil Maton | 58 | 4.09 |
Oliver Perez (L) | 46 | 4.51 |
Cal Quantrill | 131 | 4.76 |
Trevor Stephan | 32 | 4.55 |
Logan Allen (L) | 115 | 4.74 |
Bieber alone makes this a rotation to watch, but this campaign also marks the beginning of a new era for Cleveland pitching after Carlos Carrasco's departure in the Lindor trade. Plesac made great strides last year (when he wasn't running afoul of COVID-19 protocols), making him a solid sidekick for Bieber. Youngsters McKenzie, Allen, and Cal Quantrill are the wild cards. McKenzie impressed in his brief debut stretch last year. Quantrill - also part of the Clevinger trade - was thought of as the favorite to win the fifth starter job. However, his spring struggles opened the door for Allen, who had a stellar Cactus League run.
The bullpen is a bit of a mixed bag, but one bright spot is Karinchak, who struck out 53 batters in 27 innings last year. Karinchak's officially the ace of this unit. Clase, the key return for Corey Kluber, returns after serving a season-long suspension for PEDs, and he will also likely play a big role in Cleveland's bullpen. Stephan, a Rule 5 Draft pick, secured his spot with a solid spring performance.
Detroit Tigers
2020 record: 23-35 (5th)
Payroll: $96.145M
O/U win total: 67
World Series odds: +12500
3-year trend: 2018 (3rd); 2019 (5th); 2020 (5th)
Highest projected WAR: Matthew Boyd (2.4)
X-factor: Casey Mize
Key Injuries: Spencer Turnbull
Prospect to watch: Mize (MLB.com: No. 11)
Winter report card: B-
Projected Lineup
ORDER | PLAYER | POS. | PROJ. WAR |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Robbie Grossman (S) | LF | 1.1 |
2 | Jeimer Candelario (S) | 3B | 1.9 |
3 | Willi Castro (S) | SS | 1.6 |
4 | Miguel Cabrera | DH | 0.5 |
5 | Jonathan Schoop | 2B | 1.2 |
6 | Nomar Mazara (L) | RF | 0.5 |
7 | Wilson Ramos | C | 1.3 |
8 | Niko Goodrum (S) | 1B | 0.1 |
9 | JaCoby Jones | CF | 0.1 |
Bench
PLAYER | POS | PROJ. WAR |
---|---|---|
Grayson Greiner | C | 0.0 |
Akil Baddoo (L) | OF | -0.6 |
Victor Reyes (S) | OF | 0.5 |
Harold Castro (L) | IF/OF | -0.1 |
The Tigers are still rebuilding - and it shows. Veterans Ramos, Grossman, Nunez, and Mazara are the exact kind of low-cost free-agent pickups a team in Detroit's position should make, and they'll end up being critical to the club's offensive success. Willi Castro and Candelario will ideally build on their successful 2020 campaigns and continue to develop into key pieces of the Tigers' future.
Projected Rotation
PITCHER | PROJ. IP | PROJ. ERA |
---|---|---|
Matthew Boyd (L) | 172 | 4.49 |
Julio Teheran | 102 | 5.97 |
Tarik Skubal (L) | 127 | 4.37 |
Jose Urena | 127 | 5.22 |
Casey Mize | 97 | 5.05 |
Bullpen
PITCHER | PROJ. IP | PROJ. ERA |
---|---|---|
Gregory Soto (L) | 63 | 4.21 |
Bryan Garcia | 64 | 4.89 |
Buck Farmer | 61 | 4.74 |
Jose Cisnero | 56 | 4.37 |
Daniel Norris (L) | 78 | 4.21 |
Derek Holland (L) | 53 | 4.45 |
Michael Fulmer | 116 | 4.89 |
Tyler Alexander (L) | 36 | 4.25 |
A lot of these pitchers are simply keeping spots on the staff warm for the youngsters on the way. Boyd - one of the last vestiges from the David Price trade - remains atop the rotation, while Detroit could deal the likes of Fulmer, Urena, and Teheran to contenders if they perform. The bullpen is an assortment of names befitting from a rebuild.
The real fun will be watching the Tigers' prized young arms progress over the course of 2021. Mize, one of baseball's top pitching prospects, and Skubal both struggled in their first tastes of the majors last summer. The pair made the rotation out of spring and will get every opportunity to continue their progress at the highest level. Another top prospect in Matt Manning is also on the way, but he might need more time in the minors after not pitching in 2020. The future of Detroit's rotation is very bright, even if the short-term growing pains are difficult.
Kansas City Royals
2020 record: 26-34 (4th)
Payroll: $104M
O/U win total: 71
World Series odds: +11000
3-year trend: 2018 (5th); 2019 (4th); 2020 (4th)
Highest projected WAR: Adalberto Mondesi (2.5)
X-factor: Andrew Benintendi
Key Injuries: Mondesi
Prospect to watch: Bobby Witt Jr. (MLB.com: No. 7)
Winter report card: A-
Projected Lineup
ORDER | PLAYER | POS. | PROJ. WAR |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Whit Merrifield | 2B | 1.5 |
2 | Andrew Benintendi (L) | LF | 1.4 |
3 | Carlos Santana (S) | 1B | 1.6 |
4 | Salvador Perez | C | 2.4 |
5 | Jorge Soler | DH | 1.3 |
6 | Hunter Dozier | 3B | 1.1 |
7 | Kyle Isbel (L) | RF | 0.0 |
8 | Michael A. Taylor | CF | 0.1 |
9 | Nicky Lopez (L) | SS | 0.4 |
Bench
PLAYER | POS | PROJ. WAR |
---|---|---|
Cam Gallagher | C | 0.3 |
Ryan McBroom | 1B/OF | -0.1 |
Hanser Alberto | 2B/3B | 0.4 |
Jarrod Dyson (L) | OF | 0.1 |
If the Royals live up to the billing as a pesky, surprising team in 2021, it will largely be thanks to a revamped offense. Veteran first baseman Santana was a shrewd signing whose on-base skills will fit nicely in the middle of the lineup. Benintendi, who was picked up in a trade, might be in the perfect spot to try and revitalize his career after a couple of tough seasons in Boston. The 26-year-old has never been a natural power hitter, so he'll likely enjoy Kauffman Stadium's inviting gaps. Longtime Royals contributors Merrifield, Perez, and Dozier round out what might be this division's most fascinating offensive unit.
Projected Rotation
PITCHER | PROJ. IP | PROJ. ERA |
---|---|---|
Brad Keller | 166 | 4.73 |
Mike Minor (L) | 178 | 4.55 |
Brady Singer | 137 | 4.40 |
Danny Duffy (L) | 157 | 4.73 |
Bullpen
PITCHER | PROJ. IP | PROJ. ERA |
---|---|---|
Greg Holland | 58 | 4.57 |
Josh Staumont | 63 | 4.09 |
Scott Barlow | 65 | 3.96 |
Jesse Hahn | 56 | 4.12 |
Kyle Zimmer | 55 | 4.58 |
Wade Davis | 53 | 5.10 |
Richard Lovelady (L) | 40 | 4.29 |
Jake Newberry | 40 | 4.95 |
Jakob Junis | 108 | 4.77 |
A lot of the Royals' potential success hinges on their pitching staff's performance. Veteran starters Duffy and Minor will only give you so much, and they'll need help from some youngsters. Singer is a core piece of this staff long term and showed flashes of brilliance last summer. Left-hander Kris Bubic will start in the minors after a rough spring but should be back before long, but Kansas City will go with a four-man rotation in the interim. Zimmer, a former first-round pick, is now in the bullpen but could still impress enough to jump back into the rotation. The Royals are also hoping Holland and Davis - who formed a commanding duo for the franchise during their playoff runs from 2014-15 - can find some of that old magic in 2021.
Minnesota Twins
2020 record: 36-24 (1st)
Payroll: $145M
O/U win total: 91
World Series odds: +1800
3-year trend: 2018 (2nd); 2019 (1st); 2020 (1st)
Highest projected WAR: Josh Donaldson (3.2)
X-factor: Byron Buxton
Key Injuries: None
Prospect to watch: Alex Kiriloff (MLB.com: No. 26)
Winter report card: B-
Projected Lineup
ORDER | PLAYER | POS. | PROJ. WAR |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Max Kepler (L) | RF | 3.0 |
2 | Josh Donaldson | 3B | 3.2 |
3 | Nelson Cruz | DH | 1.4 |
4 | Miguel Sano | 1B | 1.3 |
5 | Jorge Polanco (S) | 2B | 2.2 |
6 | Byron Buxton | CF | 3.1 |
7 | Jake Cave (L) | LF | 0.2 |
8 | Mitch Garver | C | 1.3 |
9 | Andrelton Simmons | SS | 2.9 |
Bench
PLAYER | POS | PROJ. WAR |
---|---|---|
Ryan Jeffers | C | 1.6 |
Luis Arraez (L) | IF/OF | 2.3 |
Willians Astudillo | C/IF/OF | 0.1 |
Kyle Garlick | OF | -0.1 |
This much we know: The Twins are going to hit home runs. The Bomba Squad pretty much returns its entire powerful offense for 2021. Alex Kiriloff - Minnesota's top prospect who made his big-league debut in the wild-card series last September - was presumably Eddie Rosario's replacement in left field until being optioned to the minors following a dreadful spring. The club will likely recall Kiriloff at some point this season, but until then it'll be mix-and-match in left with some combination of Cave, Garlick, Brent Rooker, and maybe Astudillo. Garver struggled last year, but it's hard to know what to make of that result in the shortened campaign. Even if Garver finds his stroke again, he'll likely split time behind the plate with Jeffers. Donaldson is another important cog, despite a wonky calf limiting him in 2020. As he goes, so might the Twins.
Projected Rotation
PITCHER | PROJ. IP | PROJ. ERA |
---|---|---|
Kenta Maeda | 172.0 | 4.28 |
Jose Berrios | 178.0 | 4.24 |
Michael Pineda | 159.0 | 4.65 |
J.A. Happ (L) | 135.0 | 4.72 |
Matt Shoemaker | 108.0 | 4.76 |
Bullpen
PITCHER | PROJ. IP | PROJ. ERA |
---|---|---|
Alex Colome | 65.0 | 4.51 |
Taylor Rogers (L) | 64.0 | 3.56 |
Tyler Duffey | 62.0 | 4.00 |
Cody Stashak | 58.0 | 4.48 |
Caleb Thielbar (L) | 56.0 | 4.48 |
Hansel Robles | 54.0 | 4.70 |
Jorge Alcala | 45.0 | 4.46 |
Randy Dobnak | 115.0 | 4.69 |
Maeda proved to be everything Minnesota hoped for and then some in 2020. While he did prove that he can start full time, he still hasn't done that during a 162-game season. The rotation behind him is solid enough to keep this outfit in contention. Shoemaker was very good in Toronto when healthy and could give the Twins great value if he pitches to his abilities and stays off the injured list.
Minnesota also added some big arms to the bullpen in Colome and Robles. Both right-handers have experience closing. Combined with lefty Taylor Rogers, the duo gives manager Rocco Baldelli multiple weapons in the late innings. This is not a unit to take lightly.