MLB weekly betting preview: Musgrove, Burnes worth under price
Our winning ways continued with a 2-1 mark over the weekend, extending our record to 15-3-1 over the last few weeks. Here are our favorite bets heading into this week:
Indians (-105) @ Tigers (-115)
May 24, 7:10 p.m. ET
Starting pitchers: Sam Hentges (1-1, 6.46 ERA) vs. Spencer Turnbull (3-2, 2.88)
The last time Turnbull took the mound, he threw a no-hitter against a Mariners lineup that had been no-hit 13 days earlier. Now, he gets to face the Indians, who have been no-hit twice in the last six weeks and lost their second-best batter in Saturday's win over the Twins.
Cleveland's lineup was already sinking before the Franmil Reyes injury, ranking 24th in OPS (.668) and 25th in wOBA (.292) entering Monday. That's been an issue without an ace on the mound: the Indians are 14-5 this season when Shane Bieber or Aaron Civale pitches and 10-15 when they don't.
That includes a loss in Hentges' last start, when he allowed six runs through 1 2/3 innings against the Angels. He'll need to be sharper against the Tigers, who are 9-4 in their last 13 games with MLB's seventh-highest wOBA (.343) in that stretch.
Pick: Tigers -115
Padres @ Brewers (N/A)
May 25, 7:40 p.m.
Starting pitchers: Joe Musgrove (4-4, 2.47) vs. Corbin Burnes (2-3, 1.79)
When these two pitchers take the mound, bettors ought to pay attention. The duo is a combined 10-6 to the under this season, with each already cashing in their previous start against the opposing squad.
Burnes has the tougher task corralling the Padres' scorching offense, but he's equipped for the test. The early Cy Young contender ranks in the 99th percentile in xERA (1.41) and xwOBA (.188) - both better than his already ridiculous surface stats - and ranks first in FIP (0.84) among starters with at least 40 innings.
Musgrove bounced back from a recent cold spell with seven shutout innings and 11 strikeouts against the Rockies - his most punchouts since fanning 13 Brewers bats on April 19. If he and Burnes bring their usual stuff, the under will cash easily.
Pick: Under (TBD)
Cardinals @ White Sox (N/A)
May 26, 2:10 p.m.
Starting pitchers: John Gant (3-3, 2.04) vs. Carlos Rodon (5-1, 1.27)
The remarkable comeback story continues for Rodon, who struck out 13 across six scoreless innings against the red-hot Yankees in his last start. The former No. 3 pick has now allowed just six runs with 62 punchouts across 42 2/3 innings. He's allowed one or fewer runs in six of seven starts.
Compare that to Gant, who has been playing with fire all year. The Cardinals starter has a 2.04 ERA despite a 1.56 WHIP that ranks 14th-worst among starters with 30-plus innings. He's walking nearly as many batters per nine innings (6.35) as he's striking out (7.26), which is a dangerous recipe when his average exit velocity (90 mph) ranks among the worst 20% of pitchers.
Chicago's lineup has been sullied by injuries, but it still has the power hitters to take advantage of Gant's subpar stuff. A typical Rodon start should be plenty enough to support that.
Pick: White Sox (TBD)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.