MLB Tuesday best bets: Red Sox offense to keep rolling vs. Royals

We finally hit a snag with a 1-2 record on our MLB picks for Monday, though we're still carrying a 36-21-2 record into Tuesday's action. Here are our favorite bets for the day.

Phillies under 4.5 runs (-130) vs. Marlins

Good luck scoring any runs against Trevor Rogers. The Marlins' breakout ace has been nearly flawless this year, allowing two runs or fewer in 13 of his 15 starts. He allowed three runs to the Blue Jays and Nationals in his two outliers, but both teams rank top seven in expected weighted on-base average this year.

The Phillies' lineup ranks bottom 10 in that regard (.310) and has plated four runs or fewer in five consecutive games and 11 of the team's last 13. Philadelphia will have a similarly tough time getting anything going against Rogers.

Red Sox over 6 runs (-125) vs. Royals

The Red Sox offense is a force, and seemingly no pitcher is exempt. Boston hung six runs (five earned) on Yankees ace Gerrit Cole in a 9-2 win Sunday before saddling Danny Duffy - who entered Monday with a 1.81 ERA - with four earned runs in a 6-5 win over the Royals.

Now it's Brad Keller's turn to limit the damage, something he's failed to do in recent weeks. Kansas City's young righty owns an 8.85 ERA over his last four starts and has, incredibly, posted fewer strikeouts than runs allowed in each of those contests. Expect the Red Sox to keep rolling Tuesday.

Giants-Dodgers under 7.5 (-115)

Though pitchers have largely struggled over the last month - which notably coincides with MLB's crackdown on foreign substances - that hasn't derailed the success of some of baseball's top stars on the mound.

Take Kevin Gausman, whose fastball spin rate was already close to the 50th percentile near the end of May. It's been nearly unchanged in June as the Giants ace continues his dominant run, allowing two runs or fewer in 14 of his 15 starts this season.

Walker Buehler's spin rates have plummeted in recent starts, but he's still found ways to limit opposing batters. The Dodgers star takes an eight-game quality start streak into Tuesday's contest, with his team riding a 4-0-1 under run. That should continue in this one.

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].