NL Cy Young odds: Can anyone catch deGrom amid historic season?
Jacob deGrom is having a season for the ages. Through 14 starts, the Mets star leads all qualified starters in ERA (0.95), FIP (0.99), strikeouts per nine (14.4), fWAR (4.8), and is posting a stat line on par with some of the best single-season pitching performances we've ever seen.
While deGrom is dominating at a historic pace, his Cy Young campaign isn't invincible. He's already had multiple serious injury scares this year and could opt for a lengthy rehab stint should he suffer another, which would almost certainly derail his chances at the award if it lasted more than a handful of starts. He could also falter down the stretch - his two worst starts of the season both came within the last seven days.
So who could put together a compelling run over the back half of the season and steal deGrom's spotlight? Here are the updated NL Cy Young odds (shorter than 100-1) and our favorite bets to compete with the Mets phenom:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | -600 |
| Brandon Woodruff | +1000 |
| Kevin Gausman | +1500 |
| Corbin Burnes | +1800 |
| Yu Darvish | +1800 |
| Zack Wheeler | +1800 |
| Max Scherzer | +3000 |
| Walker Buehler | +3500 |
| Trevor Bauer | +4000 |
| Freddy Peralta | +5000 |
| Jack Flaherty | +5000 |
| Trevor Rogers | +5000 |
| Clayton Kershaw | +7000 |
| Joe Musgrove | +7000 |
| Ian Anderson | +8500 |
| Josh Hader | +8500 |
| Julio Urias | +8500 |
| Marcus Stroman | +8500 |
| Sandy Alcantara | +8500 |
Kevin Gausman, Giants (+1500)
While deGrom has been nothing short of dominant this season, Gausman has been historically effective in his own right. The Giants righty ranks second in ERA (1.68) among qualified starters and has allowed two or fewer runs in 14 of his 16 starts this season, helping his team to a 10-4 record in those games.
He's set up to succeed over the back half of the season, too. His spin rates on his fastball have remained virtually unchanged as he's leaned more into his devastating splitter, which has generated 36 strikeouts to just one hit allowed over his last six starts. It'd take a lot to overtake deGrom, but if injuries strike, Gausman has the resume and pitch mix to assume pole position.
Corbin Burnes, Brewers (+1800)
The best way to combat one historic season is with another, and Burnes’ campaign certainly qualifies as that. The Brewers pitcher opened the year with an MLB-record 58 consecutive strikeouts without a walk, and his current 120:15 strikeout-to-walk ratio speaks to his overall dominance.
Burnes ranks second behind deGrom in FIP (1.44), K/9 (13.2), and fWAR (3.8) among starters with at least 50 innings on the season. In June alone, he was the only regular starter to boast a higher K/9 (13.7) than deGrom (13.3), and his fWAR ranked fourth among NL starters despite making just four starts. He also ranks second in called strike plus whiff rate (34.5%) among those with 50-plus innings, which can be predictive of future success.
Few pitchers possess the pure combination of stuff and control to compete with deGrom across a full season. Burnes is one of them, and his price ought to be shorter than this in a crowded field.
Joe Musgrove, Padres (+7000)
If anyone can challenge deGrom from a narrative perspective, it's Musgrove, who was a hit-by-pitch away from a perfect game in 2020's first no-hitter. His campaign is more than just that one incredible start: the Padres' breakout ace is still a top-20 pitcher in ERA (2.79) with a top-15 strikeouts per nine (11.0) and the seventh-best SIERA (3.22) of any qualified NL starter.
He should also survive MLB's crackdown on foreign substances, as his offspeed-heavy arsenal isn't reliant on high spin rates. If Musgrove can rediscover some of his early season magic over the back half of the year, he's a compelling long shot to win.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.