MLB weekend best bets: Back red-hot Alcantara vs. slumping Reds

We polished off another strong 2-1 week with Wednesday's easy under between the White Sox and Athletics, pushing our record to 9-3 on MLB picks over the last two weeks. Here are our favorite bets for the weekend:

Pirates under 3.5 runs (-130) at Cardinals
Aug. 20, 8:15 p.m. ET

When in doubt, fade the Pirates' offense. Pittsburgh ranks dead last in MLB in barrel rate (5.1%), hard-hit rate (33.6%), exit velocity (87.3 mph), and wOBAcon (.332), and it's showed on the field: The Pirates have scored the fewest runs of any team in baseball.

Pittsburgh has plated three runs or fewer in each of its last five games ahead of Friday's meeting with the Cardinals and Miles Mikolas, who returns from a three-month stint on the IL. He was impressive in his lone start this year and should keep the Pirates' floundering bats in check.

Athletics under (TBD) vs. Giants
Aug. 21, 7:07 p.m.

Kevin Gausman's incredible run of allowing two runs or fewer hit a snag heading into July. He hasn't been his dominant self over his last five starts, posting a 5.11 ERA with at least three runs allowed in three of those outings.

The Giants ace has been a strong bet to bounce back this season, though. Gausman has allowed at least three runs in five starts in 2021, including his last outing Monday. In starts after allowing three runs or more, he owns a 2.31 ERA with 30 strikeouts across 23 1/3 innings. Averaging 2.6 runs over their last five games, the Athletics will struggle to extend Gausman's woes.

Reds under (TBD) vs. Marlins
Aug. 22, 1:10 p.m.

Sandy Alcantara is an ace hiding in plain sight for the Marlins, whose lousy offense overshadows just how well he's pitching. The 25-year-old righty has allowed three runs or fewer in 20 of his 25 starts this season, and he's dominated the Yankees, Padres, and Braves in recent weeks; he allowed just one run with 24 strikeouts across those three contests.

The Reds teed off against Miami starter Nick Neidert on Thursday, but they'd plated exactly one run in three of their previous five games. The Marlins have allowed three runs or fewer in 16 of Alcantara's 25 starts and should continue that trend in Sunday's matinee.

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].