MLB weekly best bets: Astros have too much pop for struggling Gilbert
We hit a bump in the final week of August with a 1-2 weekend record on our MLB picks. Let's kickstart another run with our final plays this month and into September:
Giants under 3.5 runs (-130) at Brewers
Aug. 30, 9:45 p.m. ET
Corbin Burnes is gunning for the NL Cy Young award. The Brewers ace allowed four runs in a sub-standard start on Tuesday but gave up a combined one earned run in his previous three starts. He's allowed one or fewer run in eight of his last 10 starts and averaged 7.2 strikeouts to just 1.4 walks per outing.
He'll have a chance to add to his resume Monday against the Giants, who were shut out in Sunday's loss to the Braves and have plated three or fewer runs in three of their last five, and seven of their last 11 games.
Reds over (TBD) vs. Cardinals
Aug. 31, 6:40 p.m.
Are we sure we can trust Miles Mikolas? The Cardinals pitcher owns a 2.70 ERA this season, which includes one start in late May and two following a long stint on IL. The numbers are deceiving - he allowed eight hits in 4 1/3 innings but ceded just three runs, while his 3.84 FIP and 1.275 WHIP tell a different story than his sterling ERA.
He'll be tested against a Reds lineup that ranks fourth in wOBA (.329) and has scored at least four runs against Burnes, Aaron Nola, and Zack Wheeler in recent weeks. Expect a similar result against Mikolas.
Astros over (TBD) at Mariners
Sept. 1, 4:10 p.m.
Someday, Logan Gilbert will be an effective MLB starter. That day hasn't yet come. The Mariners' top pitching prospect has struggled in his first taste of the majors, posting a 5.44 ERA with a decent strikeout rate but a big home run problem. He's allowed a combined six dingers across his last four starts, during which he owns a 10.13 ERA in four Seattle losses.
One of those came against the Astros, who took Gilbert deep twice and plated a combined nine runs in 4 2/3 innings against the overmatched rookie. Gilbert has allowed at least five runs in each of his last three starts and is a risky bet to bounce back in a rematch with Houston's dangerous bats.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.