NL MVP odds update: Can Harper, Turner catch up to injured Tatis?
For weeks, the NL MVP race looked like a clear two-man competition between Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jacob deGrom. Then injuries struck, and with less than two months left in the season, it's a wide-open field.
Tatis (+100) is still the front-runner, and for good reason. The Padres star leads the NL in fWAR (4.5) and is the runaway leader in home runs (31) and stolen bases (23) despite playing at least 12 games fewer than the second-place challenger in each of those stats.
That level of availability is also a hindrance to his MVP campaign. Tatis missed 10 days early in the season with a shoulder injury, then hit a home run in his return. He missed eight games in May after testing positive for COVID-19, then missed another game in June after reinjuring that same shoulder.
Now he finds himself on the shelf yet again after partially dislocating that left shoulder, though he's expected to return in the outfield at some point before the postseason. Can he return in time to preserve his narrow MVP lead?
Here are the updated NL MVP odds (100-1 or shorter) and two players who could challenge Tatis' spot atop the oddsboard:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | +100 |
| Bryce Harper | +270 |
| Max Muncy | +460 |
| Trea Turner | +850 |
| Freddie Freeman | +1200 |
| Nick Castellanos | +4800 |
| Joey Votto | +5500 |
| Manny Machado | +6500 |
| Jacob deGrom | +7000 |
| Juan Soto | +8000 |
| Brandon Crawford | +8000 |
Bryce Harper (+270)
Nobody is swinging the bat better right now than Harper, who has posted a ridiculous .333/.436/.848 slash line in August with four home runs and a stunning .515 ISO. It's not just this month, either - since the All-Star break, he leads the NL in WAR (1.7) and ranks third in OPS (1.216) with incredible discipline at the plate.
His recent play has helped the Phillies win eight of nine games in August to surge past the Mets for the NL East lead. If Philadelphia wins the division and Harper's counting stats are in Tatis' neighborhood, this could be close.
Trea Turner (+850)
Turner - the former Padres prospect and coveted San Diego target at the trade deadline - is making a case to beat out Tatis in the NL MVP race. The first-time All-Star has hit .308 in four games with the Dodgers and ranks second on the season in fWAR (4.4) and stolen bases (22) while belting 18 homers of his own.
Turner's best case to win this award is consistency and availability. His stats are bested by Tatis in every way, but it's close, so Turner could make a solid case of his own during the MVP front-runner's absence.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.