AL wild-card betting preview: Can Red Sox snap 6-game skid to Yankees?
After 19 regular-season meetings and a combined 184 wins, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees need one more clash to settle their epic rivalry this campaign, with the winner advancing to meet the AL East champion Tampa Bay Rays.
Can New York keep its six-game winning streak against the Red Sox alive? Or will Boston hold serve in its home park?
Yankees (-125) @ Red Sox (+105), total 8 (over -115)
Oct. 5, 8:08 p.m. ET
It's hard to imagine a wild-card matchup more evenly matched than this one. These two teams ended the season with identical 92-70 records, though the Red Sox produced the higher run differential (+80 to +42), faced a tougher schedule (.507), and finished with a better expected win-loss percentage (55.1% to 53%).
The Red Sox and Yankees were also perfect foils throughout the season. Boston claimed 10 games over New York and outpaced the Yankees by exactly one run (75 to 74) head-to-head. However, the Bronx Bombers swept their rivals in August and September while posting a plus-2.83 run differential.
So why are the Yankees the clear favorites in this one given that razor-thin margin? Yes, they've won eight of their last games nine contests to clinch the final wild-card spot, but their September record (15-12) is still worse than Boston's mark (14-11), and the Red Sox had established themselves as the better club before New York's late-season surge.
Oddsmakers also likely favor Gerrit Cole over Nathan Eovaldi in a duel of wild-card aces. Should they? While Cole's name is bigger and he'll likely be the Cy Young runner-up, Eovaldi leads all qualified AL pitchers in FIP (2.79) and fWAR (5.6), and he owns a strong 0.74 HR/9 rate, which ranks second in the league. That's crucial against a Yankees lineup that leads the majors in hard-hit rate (42.6%) and will look to blow this one open with the long ball.
Two can play that game, and hard-hit rate is about the one area where New York's lineup outpaces its counterpart. The Red Sox are the only MLB team to rank in the top two in hard-hit rate (42.5%), barrel rate (9.9%), exit velocity (89.9 mph), xSLG (.443), and xwOBA (.333). They've also been Cole's kryptonite this season, tagging him for five home runs and a 4.91 ERA over four meetings - both among his worst marks against any opponent.
The Yankees roughed up Eovaldi in his last start against them on Sept. 24, when he allowed seven runs on seven hits through just 2 2/3 innings. It was a disastrous outing, though he'd limited them to six runs over his previous four meetings with New York across 25 2/3 innings. That's a better representation of what we can expect Tuesday at Fenway Park, where Eovaldi managed a 1.47 ERA over his last nine starts prior to that Sept. 24 appearance.
Cole and the Yankees' bats are hotter, though Eovaldi and the Red Sox have been better overall this season. Which sample size you value more is likely the way you'll bet this one.
Give me the more consistent club with the better price and a meaningful home-field advantage. Boston boasted the sixth-best home record (49-32) in the majors, and the Red Sox should take care of business.
Pick: Red Sox +105
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].