Breaking down the tiebreaker scenarios ahead of MLB's season finale
It's been a while since Major League Baseball had a season finale with so much on the line, so Sunday promises to be a very memorable - and potentially very confusing - day.
So, what's on the line? Let's try our best to break down every possible outcome before all 15 games kick off at 3 p.m. ET.
Most of our eyes will be on the AL, where four teams are clawing at each other for two wild-card spots. These are the wild-card standings heading into Sunday:
| Team | Record | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | 91-70 | .565 | - |
| Yankees | 91-70 | .565 | - |
| Blue Jays | 90-71 | .559 | 1 |
| Mariners | 90-71 | .559 | 1 |
The simplest scenarios - and the least fun for fans of chaos and extra baseball - involve the Red Sox and Yankees taking care of business. The Red Sox are firmly in the driver's seat at this point: beat Washington on Sunday, and they'll host the wild-card game at Fenway Park. If both Boston and New York win, it's Red Sox-Yankees at Fenway (Boston owns the tiebreaker).
Got all that? Good. Because it's going to get confusing now.
The Red Sox and Yankees are guaranteed to play Monday, at worst. Because Boston won Saturday, both the Blue Jays and the Mariners need some help to survive. To get the chaos, Toronto needs to beat the Orioles, Seattle needs to beat the Angels, and one or both of the Yankees and Red Sox have to lose.
We've provided examples of the results needed to trigger each potential scenario.
Everyone's at 91 wins
TB beats NYY; WAS beats BOS; TOR beats BAL; SEA beats LAA
Here's the vaunted four-team tie! This is actually the most straightforward of the chaos scenarios: There'll be two tiebreaker contests Monday, and the winners meet Tuesday in the wild-card game.
Fun little subplot amid the chaos that's about to unleash itself in less than three hours: If there is a four-way tie for the AL wild card, the Yankees will go to Fenway to play the Red Sox. That was their choice. They could have chosen to go to Toronto instead and play the Jays.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) October 3, 2021
Three teams tie for one spot
TB beats NYY; WAS beats BOS; TOR beats BAL; LAA beats SEA
Now your head's really going to spin. In this scenario, we'll presume the Mariners will lose Sunday and are eliminated, leaving the three AL East teams tied at 91 wins. Club A would host Club B in the first tiebreaker Monday, with the winner of that contest advancing to the wild-card game (now pushed back to Wednesday). The loser of that game is still alive and visits Club C on Tuesday to determine the second wild card.
Similar to the four-way tie scenario at 91 wins, designation of Clubs A, B, and C will be decided by the teams, with the team with the highest winning percentage head-to-head receiving first pick.
Three teams tie for the second spot
NYY beats TB; WAS beats BOS; TOR beats BAL; SEA beats LAA
If either the Yankees or Red Sox win but the second wild-card spot is still up for grabs, two tiebreakers will still be needed. The tiebreaker schedule would be the same as the previous scenario, as would the procedure of determining Clubs A, B, and C.
A Red Sox-Blue Jays-Mariners tie here would see Boston choose its designation first, again based on head-to-head records, followed by Seattle, and then Toronto.
Two teams tied for the second wild-card spot
This one's easy if it happens: We'll have a Game 163 somewhere Monday, with the winner advancing to the wild-card game. If the Red Sox are in this game, they'll host either the Blue Jays or Mariners after winning both of those season series. A Blue Jays-Yankees tiebreaker would be at Rogers Centre, while Yankees-Mariners would go down in the Bronx.
No ties at all
Even if it does set up a winner-take-all Red Sox-Yankees game, this is the most boring of all the potential scenarios. Obviously, if the Blue Jays and Mariners lose, they're done. But they'll also go home if both of the Yankees and Red Sox win. Canada and the Pacific Northwest will be rooting hard for the Rays and Nationals on Sunday afternoon.
Sportsnet's Shi Davidi posted a thread to Twitter on Sunday with the kind of schedule we could be in store for the AL next week, based on what happens on Day 162:
The tentative schedule if tiebreakers are needed for AL Wild Card:
— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) October 3, 2021
If a four-way tie, Jays host Seattle and Yankees go to Boston on Monday, winners meet Tuesday
If a three-way Tor, Bos, Sea tie with NYY as first wild card, Jays at Sea on Monday, winner hosts Bos on Tuesday
The NL West
LAD beats MIL; SD beats SF
There's one other potential tiebreaker scenario out west. If the 105-win Dodgers win and the 106-win Giants lose, we'll get a Game 163 between these longtime rivals Monday in San Francisco. The winner would get the division; the loser would host the St. Louis Cardinals in Wednesday's NL wild-card game.
Buckle up, folks. No matter what happens, Sunday is going to be a baseball day to remember.