Opening Day Power Rankings: 1 prediction for each club
Welcome to the first edition of theScore's MLB Power Rankings for the 2022 season where we make one prediction for each team.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
101-61 | 95-67 | 93.9% |
Dodgers sweep NL MVP, Cy Young, and Reliever of the Year. Betting odds rank Walker Buehler as the third-best NL Cy Young candidate while Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and Freddie Freeman are all in the top seven for MVP - and a bounceback from Cody Bellinger, who won in 2019, is plausible. Craig Kimbrel, who will almost certainly record his 400th save this season, completes a historic hardware collection for this borderline dynastic club.
2. Toronto Blue Jays
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
90-72 | 93-69 | 90% |
Matt Chapman finishes inside the top five in AL MVP voting. A 40-homer campaign and his prodigious defensive exploits lead to legitimate MVP buzz. Chapman finished sixth in MVP voting in 2019 and seventh the year before.
3. Atlanta Braves
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
92-70 | 93-69 | 87.7% |
Atlanta exceeds its 88-win total from last season. The rest of the NL East has improved, but the Braves boast arguably the best lineup in the division and one of the majors' top bullpens. Once Ronald Acuna Jr. returns, it's hard to keep this club from scoring.
4. Chicago White Sox
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
90-72 | 87-75 | 72.3% |
Eloy Jimenez hits 40-plus homers. The 25-year-old slugger went deep 45 times over 172 games between 2019 and 2020 before missing significant time with a pectoral injury last season. He's healthy again and due to play a crucial role in a deep lineup with plenty of protection.
5. Tampa Bay Rays
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
85-77 | 85-77 | 52.4% |
Top 3 finishers in MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year. This is almost certainly the best iteration of the Rays roster ever conceived and hardware for individual players could easily follow. Off the top, we've got Wander Franco making noise in the MVP conversation with Brandon Lowe earning some down-ballot consideration the last two years running. Shane McClanahan was a revelation last year and a full season could easily earn him a Cy Young. And, finally, Josh Lowe is an unsung prospect who, after making the roster for Opening Day, is a legitimate ROY contender.
6. New York Mets
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
90-72 | 88-74 | 67.1% |
Deciding not to trade Dominic Smith pays off in a big way. The 27-year-old puts together a bounce-back campaign with regular playing time and leads New York in home runs and OPS. The biggest move of the Mets' offseason is the deal they didn't make.
7. Milwaukee Brewers
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
93-69 | 89-73 | 81.1% |
Christian Yelich bounces back with 6-WAR season. Yelich has been worth more than 7.0 WAR twice in his career - once when he won NL MVP in 2018 and the following year when he finished runner-up. He's really struggled since, but the Brewers' additions of Hunter Renfroe and Andrew McCutchen to help on defense should pay dividends and help get Yelich back to All-Star form.
8. Houston Astros
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
91-71 | 91-71 | 85.5% |
Rookie shortstop Jeremy Pena hits at least 20 homers and steals at least 10 bases. The Astros are bullish on the 24-year-old's ability to replace Carlos Correa. Pena hit 10 homers in 30 Triple-A games last season and turned heads this spring. A strong debut campaign from Pena goes a long way toward helping Houston keep its perch atop the AL West.
9. Boston Red Sox
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
86-76 | 86-76 | 62.7% |
Rafael Devers finishes in the top three of AL MVP voting. The 25-year-old eclipses the 40-homer mark for the first time and cleans things up defensively to challenge for the award.
10. New York Yankees
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
100-62 | 91-71 | 85.3% |
Yankees lead the majors in homers. New York's offense has the potential to be a powerhouse if everybody stays healthy. Josh Donaldson, Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, and Joey Gallo could all hit 30-plus round-trippers.
11. San Francisco Giants
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
78-84 | 85-77 | 47.5% |
Alex Cobb makes his first All-Star Game. The right-hander's two-year, $20-million contract was one of the steals of the offseason. Cobb has always possessed excellent stuff; staying healthy will catapult him into a career year.
12. Seattle Mariners
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
84-78 | 80-82 | 22.7% |
The Mariners' outfield outhomers the Yankees'. It'll take Herculean efforts from young stars Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez, as well as mainstay Mitch Haniger. Working in Seattle's favor, though, is the fact that Jesse Winker is its depth outfielder. While Stanton may make some spot starts to give Judge, Gallo, or Aaron Hicks a day off, the Yankees' true depth outfielder seems to be Marwin Gonzalez, who's essentially brought a soggy cardboard tube to the plate the past two seasons.
13. Philadelphia Phillies
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
87-75 | 87-75 | 62.2% |
The Phillies rank 1st in offense and last in defense. The Dodgers' prolific lineup may stand in the way of that first part, but the Phillies boast impressive top-end stars and depth this year and deserve credit. On the other hand, this team's best fielder might be J.T. Realmuto and the outfield will feature both Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos on good days - when Kyle Schwarber is DHing.
14. Minnesota Twins
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
87-75 | 82-80 | 40.4% |
Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa become a superstar duo. Both players have immense talent, though each has struggled to stay healthy at times. But in 2022, everything breaks right for the pair and both Buxton and Correa put together career years.
15. Los Angeles Angels
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
88-74 | 83-79 | 43.7% |
Mike Trout returns to being the Angels' best player. The 30-year-old goes on a full redemption tour after finishing outside the top five in MVP voting for the first time in his career. Trout's ability to stay off the IL keeps Los Angeles in the playoff hunt, too.
16. St. Louis Cardinals
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
80-82 | 82-80 | 36.8% |
Albert Pujols reaches 700 homers. The future Hall of Famer is 21 homers short of the mark. He hit 17 over 109 games in 2021 but is in great shape heading into his last season in the majors. He should get enough at-bats to make a push as a DH in the NL.
17. San Diego Padres
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
90-72 | 90-72 | 77% |
Luke Voit hits 30-plus homers. The 31-year-old slugger led the league in long balls during the shortened 2020 campaign but regressed last season. With Fernando Tatis Jr. on the shelf, a return to form for Voit would help San Diego stay afloat in the standings.
18. Detroit Tigers
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
70-92 | 77-85 | 12.4% |
E-Rod makes Cy Young push. Signing Eduardo Rodriguez pays immediate dividends for the Tigers as the southpaw pitches himself into the running for the Cy Young, but an inexperienced rotation behind him keeps Detroit out of the playoffs.
19. Texas Rangers
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
70-92 | 75-87 | 8.2% |
Spencer Howard has Giolito-like rebound. Lucas Giolito's first full season in the majors was a disaster in which he posted a 6.13 ERA and 5.56 FIP over 173 1/3 innings. Howard, once a pretty highly touted prospect in his own right, really struggled last year, authoring a 7.43 ERA over 49 2/3 innings. With a path to regular starts and the spotlight on Marcus Semien and Corey Seager, Howard should benefit.
20. Miami Marlins
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
80-82 | 82-80 | 29.1% |
Jorge Soler becomes the third Marlin to hit 40 homers. Miami signed the slugger to help power up the offense, and he does just that. Soler joins Stanton and Gary Sheffield as the only players in franchise history to cross the plateau.
21. Chicago Cubs
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
73-89 | 75-87 | 6.6% |
Clint Frazier makes the most of his fresh start. The 27-year-old former top prospect becomes an impact player on the North Side. With a clean bill of health and without the weight of expectations he experienced in New York, Frazier becomes a fan favorite in Chicago.
22. Cleveland Guardians
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
77-85 | 77-85 | 15.2% |
Triston McKenzie takes the next step. The talented young right-hander showed flashes in the second half of 2021 with 68 strikeouts and just 18 walks in 70 2/3 innings. If he can find a way to limit home runs, a strong season is in store for the 24-year-old.
23. Kansas City Royals
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
70-92 | 75-87 | 8.3% |
Bobby Witt Jr. wins AL Rookie of the Year. The third baseman is arguably the best prospect in baseball and he's ready to hit the ground running. Witt collected three homers with a 1.223 OPS over 12 spring games after belting 33 long balls across 124 contests in the minors last season.
24. Colorado Rockies
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
68-94 | 68-94 | 0.4% |
Randal Grichuk hits more homers than Kris Bryant. The Rockies spent $182 million to bring in Bryant, but it's Grichuk who winds up leading Colorado in homers after coming over in a deal from the Blue Jays. Grichuk has averaged 20-plus homers per season for most of his career, but his total surges thanks to playing half a season in the friendly confines of Coors Field.
25. Cincinnati Reds
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
80-82 | 75-87 | 7.7% |
Hunter Greene posts better numbers than Luis Castillo. The Reds have been awaiting Greene's arrival since he was drafted as a two-way star out of high school. Having ditched his shortstop dreams in favor of becoming a starter, it's the young right-hander's time to shine as he preps to beat incumbent ace Castillo in ERA, FIP, and WAR.
26. Washington Nationals
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
70-92 | 71-91 | 1.2% |
The Nationals waste another season of Juan Soto's brilliance. The 23-year-old star is arguably the most complete offensive player in the game, but Washington's supporting cast is an awkward blend of young players and veteran stalwarts like Nelson Cruz. Although Soto's production remains prodigious, it's a long season in D.C.
27. Arizona Diamondbacks
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
71-91 | 69-93 | 0.8% |
Zac Gallen puts together breakout season. The 26-year-old builds off a solid 2021 campaign and establishes himself as one of the best starters in the NL, reaching career highs in innings pitched and strikeouts. Gallen's efforts land him in the top 10 of the Cy Young race.
28. Oakland Athletics
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
64-98 | 69-93 | 0.9% |
A.J. Puk emerges in the rotation. The former first-round pick has yet to find his footing in the majors. However, the Sean Manaea trade opens up a world of opportunity in the rotation. Puk possesses the stuff to fill the void and provide A's fans with some excitement.
29. Baltimore Orioles
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
61-101 | 63-99 | 0.1% |
Five Orioles hit 30-plus home runs. Although the pitching staff remains a sore spot, Baltimore possesses an intriguing lineup of young talent. Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini, and Austin Hays all hit 18 or more homers in 2021 and will make the Orioles' lineup a tricky test for opposing pitchers this season.
30. Pittsburgh Pirates
PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs Projection | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|
66-96 | 69-93 | 0.8% |
The kids show there's light at the end of the tunnel. Oneil Cruz won't be in the Triple-A for long, Ke'Bryan Hayes will bounce back from a rough 2021, and Nick Gonzales will fly through the minors to give Pirates fans some well-deserved reasons to be excited about the future of the organization.