MLB win totals: Blue Jays among best O/U bets ahead of Opening Day
The MLB season starts Thursday, and we're breaking down every relevant futures market ahead of Opening Day. Here is each team's preseason win total courtesy of Barstool Sportsbook and our five favorite over/under plays:
| TEAM | WIN TOTAL |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 98.5 |
| Chicago White Sox | 93.5 |
| Houston Astros | 92.5 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 92.5 |
| Atlanta Braves | 91.5 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 91.5 |
| New York Yankees | 91.5 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 90.5 |
| New York Mets | 88.5 |
| San Diego Padres | 88.5 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 86.5 |
| San Francisco Giants | 85.5 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 85.5 |
| Boston Red Sox | 84.5 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 84.5 |
| Seattle Mariners | 84.5 |
| Minnesota Twins | 81.5 |
| Detroit Tigers | 77.5 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 75.5 |
| Kansas City Royals | 75.5 |
| Miami Marlins | 75.5 |
| Chicago Cubs | 73.5 |
| Texas Rangers | 73.5 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 72.5 |
| Washington Nationals | 71.5 |
| Colorado Rockies | 68.5 |
| Oakland Athletics | 68.5 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 65.5 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.5 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 61.5 |
Chicago White Sox over 93.5
On paper, it's hard to find a real fault with this White Sox roster, which is built to pace the AL if its core group can stay healthy. That was an issue for Chicago last year in a 93-win campaign, but the names here are hard to ignore.
Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez return to anchor a lineup that still features 2020 AL MVP Jose Abreu, former All-Stars Tim Anderson and Yasmani Grandal, and former top prospects Yoan Moncada and Andrew Vaughn, among others. The pitching staff is arguably even more loaded with two Cy Young contenders (Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease), a 2021 Cy Young finalist (Lance Lynn), and one of the nastiest bullpens in baseball.
It helps that this team plays in the AL Central, where the other four clubs are all projected to win between 75 and 82 games. The White Sox finished 44-32 against division opponents in 2021 and should pad their lofty win total once again versus the AL Central, helping it clear one of MLB's highest win totals.
Cincinnati Reds under 72.5
The Reds have skated by with a winning record in recent years despite an aggressively anti-competitive approach from their front office, which refuses to pay up for wins. And I have zero confidence in this team remaining competitive after shipping the bulk of their startable talent this offseason.
Cincinnati has already traded Sonny Gray, Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, and Amir Garrett, and it also waived Wade Miley and let Nick Castellanos walk in free agency. What's left is a starting rotation heavily dependent on intriguing but unproven prospects and a lineup with very little reliable power.
The last time the Reds were in the tank was from 2015-18 when they won 68 or fewer games in all four seasons. This could get ugly in a hurry.
Miami Marlins over 75.5
No team has a greater discrepancy between their preseason win total (75.5) and Fangraphs projected wins (81.7) than the Marlins, whose advanced profile is far rosier than the market projects. Years of mediocrity will have that effect, but that could be in the past thanks to a slew of breakout candidates on this year's roster.
Sandy Alcantara is the bona fide ace on a staff full of potential No. 1 arms, and his strike-throwing potential gives him elite upside if he can continue to hone his command. Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rogers, and Jesus Luzardo are all clear breakout candidates behind him, while toolsy shortstop Jazz Chisholm Jr. has all the talent in the world to break into MLB's top tier of hitters.
Adding Jorge Soler, Avisail Garcia, and Joey Wendle should help supplant one of baseball's least productive lineups in 2021, while Gold Glove catcher Jacob Stallings is a sneaky pickup for a team with this much raw talent in the rotation. Don't be surprised if Miami is a dark-horse playoff contender down the stretch.
Seattle Mariners under 84.5
There's a lot of smoke around the Mariners, who enter 2022 with one of MLB's most exciting young collections of talent. Will it actually lend itself to a winning record? That's an open question for a group that made key additions in the offseason but still has a host of question marks up and down the roster.
Robbie Ray was the crown jewel of Seattle's offseason, but the reigning AL Cy Young winner is still a risky bet to sustain that success after slashing his walk rate with the Blue Jays seemingly overnight. Top prospect Julio Rodriguez adds some pop to a lineup long devoid of power, but can we be sure he won't have a Jarred Kelenic-like start to his MLB career?
The pieces are there with Ray, Rodriguez, Kelenic, and intriguing righty Logan Gilbert, but the rest of the roster is mostly comprised of also-ran veterans or unproven youth. It could all add up to a playoff run, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Toronto Blue Jays over 92.5
There's a lot to like about this Blue Jays roster after a busy offseason that saw the team shell out big bucks in free agency and acquire one of the best hitters on the market weeks before the season. And while the hype is driving Toronto's prices sky-high in the futures market, this win total is still worth betting over.
The Blue Jays won 91 games a year ago but finished with the fifth-highest average run differential (plus-1.1) and Pythagorean win-loss record (99-63). They were saddled with some bad luck - including a 3-9 record in extra innings - but won 25 of their last 35 games to nearly break into the AL wild-card picture.
Now they replace Ray with former Giants star Kevin Gausman and add former All-Star third baseman Matt Chapman, who hit 27 home runs in 2021 and won his third Gold Glove in five seasons. This team has all the makings of an elite bunch, health permitting.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].