MLB weekend best bets: Twins to beat up on Berrios

We have a busy weekend of baseball ahead of us. Let's take a look at some of the best ways to attack it.

Diamondbacks (-115) @ Pirates (-105)
June 3, 7:05 p.m. EST

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a lot of edges in this game.

While JT Brubaker has been potent for the Pittsburgh Pirates, it is Merrill Kelly who profiles better. He owns a lower ERA (3.67 vs 4.15), a lower FIP (3.29 vs 3.92), is allowing fewer homers at just over half the rate (0.50 HR/9 vs 0.94 HR/9), and has done a better job of avoiding hard contact.

Arizona having the pitching advantage is a big plus considering they're also looking much better at the plate.

The Diamondbacks have feasted on right-handed pitching of late. They rank fourth in wOBA (.344) and third in ISO (.202) over the last three weeks. That puts them in company with teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox.

Things aren't looking as rosy for the Pirates. They have struggled mightily against righties, mustering up a .274 wOBA (29th) over the same time span while striking out more than all but the Atlanta Braves. Not ideal.

Arizona also enters play with a much fresher bullpen. They have five arms who have thrown 15 pitches or fewer over the last three days. Pittsburgh only has three, and one of them was forced into action last time out.

There is real value backing the Diamondbacks in this spot.

Bet: Diamondbacks (-115)

Red Sox (-160) @ Athletics (+140)
June 3, 9:40 p.m. EST

The pitching matchup in this game is not exactly high caliber.

James Kaprielian is taking the bump for the Oakland Athletics and he's in the midst of a truly miserable season. Despite a BABIP of .253, which is more likely to increase, Kaprielian is sporting an ERA of nearly six (5.93). His underlying numbers suggest he's been as bad as advertised; his FIP (5.78) is also sky high.

Now he draws a very difficult matchup against a Red Sox team that is crushing right-handed pitching. They lead the majors in wOBA (.366), ISO (.205), and wRC+ (139) over the last three weeks. Suffice to say, this is a prime spot for the offense to explode.

The Athletics are not a good offensive team and their park is hardly hitter-friendly. Even so, they should be able to contribute at least a couple of runs in this game. They rank 21st in wRC+ (98) vs RHP at home over the last few weeks and Nathan Eovaldi is very hittable.

His FIP (5.24) is far higher than his ERA (3.77). If he doesn't start pitching much better, the runs are going to start piling up.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think the Athletics are going to tee off on him. But they could plate two or three runs, which should be enough for the Red Sox offense to take us the rest of the way.

Bet: Over 7 (-105)

Twins (TBD) @ Blue Jays (TBD)
June 4, 3:07 p.m. EST

Jose Berrios was quite good a season ago. Splitting his time between the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins, Berrios posted a 3.47 FIP, a 3.52 ERA, struck out more than 9.5 batters per nine innings, and had a very solid ground ball rate of 42.8%.

He has not looked anything like that guy this season, as his numbers are down across the board. He owns a 5.62 ERA, 5.02 FIP, and a ground ball rate of just 31.4%.

A matchup against the Twins is hardly what the doctor ordered. They rank fifth in wOBA (.339) and in wRC+ (124) against right-handed pitchers over the last three weeks. They also slot fourth in HR/FB% (15.2%), meaning they're often taking pitchers yard when they get the ball in the air.

That is not exactly ideal for Berrios considering he's having difficulty inducing ground balls.

Look for the Twins' offense to lead them to victory.

Bet: Twins ML

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.